DRAM reversal of fortune, now what?

USA: Semico forecasts 2010 DRAM revenue increases of greater than 70 percent, as compared to revenues in 2009. This comes on the heels of 33 percent and 40 percent sequential revenue increases in 3Q’09 and 4Q’09 respectively.

DRAM ASPs have increased 108 percent since the industry reached its bottom in December of 2008. The DRAM industry began recovering from that point on, and from October of 2009 to January of 2010 DRAM ASPs have increased another 18 percent. Industry indications show no signs of ASP deterioration, which will contribute to robust DRAM revenues in 2010.

DRAM shortages are on the horizon and closing in fast. Ramifications of slowed manufacturing capacity output and a lack of capital expenditure over the last 24 months, in combination with increased underlying demand driven by a hot PC market, has led to the aforementioned positive DRAM pricing environment. Consequently, demand will continue to outpace supply in 2010, leading to a shortage scenario.

Semico’s most recent report DRAM Reversal of Fortune, Now What?, provides invaluable insight into where the memory segment is headed and why.