Thursday, December 8, 2011

Watch for continued decline in semiconductor sales

USA: Semiconductor sales, which peaked in September 2010, have begun a slow, but steady, increase lasted until September 2011 and is starting to drop again, at least for the next eight months.

Our Proprietary Leading Indicators (PLLs) show a peak in January 2010 and again in January 2011, which was mirrored by a rebound in semiconductor sales. Semiconductor sales, based on SIA’s three month moving average peaked in September 2010 and a second peak occurred in September 2011 - exactly a 12-month peak-to-peak cycle as in our PLLs. This is illustrated in our chart below.Source: The Information Network, USA.

Our PLLs are pointing down for at least the next eight months, which should be mirrored by semiconductor sales.

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