2Q notebook shipment grows 9.5 percent QoQ, 2011 notebook YoY revised to 6.5 percent

TAIWAN: According to DRAMeXchange, a research department of Trendforce, April worldwide notebook (NB) shipment declined 13.2 percent month over month (MoM) to 15.4 million units. This is attributed to the delay shipment from March by the Intel flawed chipset and the quarterly-end high base phenomenon. We expect the market momentum to warm up in May and June.

At the ODM’s investor conferences, ODMs in general are optimistic toward to the shipment in Q2, it is expected that 10 percent shipment QoQ NB growth in 2Q11, 10 percent for Compal, 10-15 percent for Wistron, 10 percent for Inventec and 20-30 percent for Pegatron. DRAMeXchange expects the recovering ODM momentum and strong EMS growth will increase 2Q11 NB growth to around 9.5 percent.

However, ODMs are still conservative toward 2011 yearend target. Besides the 10 percent YoY from Quanta, Compal revised down their annual target to 48 million from 55 million, while Wistron will aim at 9-11 percent growth rate to 30 million units. Inventec expected the flat or mild increase pattern in 2011. That is, DRAMeXchange forecasts overall 2011 notebook (netbook included) will likely is up 6.5 percent YoY to 206.5 million units.

As for the 1H11 and 2H11 shipment patterns, DRAMeXchange thinks the real channel sales will be the key contributing to 2H11 shipment since most of the 2Q11 shipment will be regarded as inventory built-up for the back to school sales. Given the anticipation of cannibalization from tablet in 3Q11, we expect NB shipment ratio comparing 1H11 to 2H11 will be closer to 45:55 rather than 40:60.Source: DRAMeXchange, Taiwan.