1H'Sep. mainstream NAND Flash contract price declines 5-10pc; mild downward price trend likely in 4Q10

TAIWAN: According to DRAMeXchange, the research department of Trendforce, 1HSep. mainstream NAND Flash average contract price declined 5-10 percent given the impact of quarter-end effect. We have seen the demand for retail memory card and UFD is still sloppy that some card makers did not intend to re-stock for Moon Festival and October golden-week holidays in China market at the high inventory level and quarter-end period.

That is, some NAND Flash vendors with higher exposure in memory card and UFD markets tend to significantly lower the price to stimulate the demand for card makers.

However, NAND Flash with higher portion at system product customers are more likely to keep the price stable and mild decline since system product orders is comparably stable. Various pricing strategies are implemented by different NAND Flash suppliers due to the different customer mix and orders status.Source: DRAMeXchange.

Despite the cautious and unclear perspective toward the NAND Flash market in 4Q10, we expect market to be continuously influenced by following factors:

a) System product orders received by some suppliers will last to early November;
b) Vendors expect the inventory replenishment for year-end hot season will likely warm up given the declining inventory level of downstream clients and recent price-cut promotion effects after mid-October;
c) 4Q10 NAND Flash bit output will continue boosting due to the increasing production portion of 2Xnm new process technology and TLC products;
d) new smart phones and tablet PCs equipped with higher storage capacity will help stimulate & boost more NAND Flash consumption in 4Q10;
e) 4Q hot season sales may be slightly weakened by the asynchronous recovery pace in different markets and applications;
f) Inventory level concerns for the year-end and quarter-end effect etc. That is, DRAMeXchange expects 4Q hot season effect for NAND Flash market to be softened after October inventory replenishment peak so that 4Q10 NAND Flash contract price will likely indicate the mild decline pattern.Source: DRAMeXcnage.