Tuesday, January 17, 2012

What's the semiconductor forecast for 2012?

NEW TRIPOLI, USA: WSTS projects 1.3 percent growth for 2011 and a 2.6 percent growth in 2012. Market research organization, Gartner, forecast semiconductor revenue for 2012 at 2.2 percent. IHS forecast a 1.2 percent growth. The Cowan LRA model in late December forecast a growth of 7.3 percent.

The forecasts are all positive although all over the place, and it’s difficult fore me to try to figure out how these forecasts were determined based on extrapolated and massaged data from the chart below.Source: The Information Network, USA.

Last month, I noted that we were spot on in saying in July 2011 that semiconductor sales would peak in September.

How did we do that? Our Proprietary Leading Indicators (PLLs), which we’ve been developing and refining since 1995 (about our 10th anniversary), peaked in January 2010 and again in January 2011, which was mirrored by a rebound in semiconductor sales nine-months later. Semiconductor sales peaked in September 2010 and a second peak occurred in September 2011 - exactly a 12-month peak-to-peak cycle as in our PLLs.

If you go back to 1995, you can see the correlation with practically every inflection point in semiconductor sales with PLL levels.

What about our forecast for 2012? PLLs plotted on the chart below but behind the box give a clear indication of what will be happening in semiconductor sales over the next nine months. These PLLs are supplied free of charge to clients of our Annual Subscription Service. We take the guesswork out of forecasts.Source: The Information Network, USA.

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