USA: Preliminary results indicate the second half of this year is starting off slightly lower than seasonal patterns. Semico forecasts semiconductor sales trends a year in advance using our IPI index.
The index, which increased during the first half of 2013, accurately predicted strong semiconductor sales in the first half of 2014. However, the IPI declined from May to December 2013, which means this industry will experience below seasonal semiconductor sales in the second half of 2014.
Every month we discuss our forecast in our IPI report. Semico looks at a variety of factors in the market to forecast out the semiconductor market. And once a quarter we provide an in-depth look at the market, giving detailed forecasts for Discretes, Analog, Optoelectronics, Memory, Etc.
Semico has been documenting the shifting monthly semiconductor revenues and trends so we can continue to provide the most accurate forecasts in the industry.
As a part of our analysis, we've found June to be a seasonally 'up' month, with semiconductor revenues on average increasing 19.6 percent MoM since 1997. However, over the last few years revenue shipments have seen a shift. Before 2008, June averaged a 24 percent increase MoM. From 2008 to 2014, June has averaged a 13 percent increase MoM.