2010 semicon market outlook update: Databeans revises chip forecast

USA: All signs are pointing to a stronger second quarter than originally predicted. Databeans current outlook for the chip industry for 2010 has been revised up to $277 billion, a 23 percent increase over 2009.

We expect microprocessor and logic revenue this year to reach over $41 billion and $76 billion respectively. Memory revenue, driven by ongoing demand in the Flash market and higher prices for DRAM, is expected to reach close to $61 billion. And after surveying several of the large analog suppliers, Databeans now expects this market to come in at $41 billion, an increase of 28 percent over 2009.

For the second quarter, sequential growth for these key markets driving the overall semiconductor industry is expected. Microprocessor revenue is expected to end the quarter at $10.5 billion a 3 percent increase from the first quarter. Logic is expected to be up 7 percent, memory up 4 percent, and general purpose analog is expected to grow by over 8 percent in the second quarter.

Inventory stocking is completed and we believe this growth is driven by the current demand in the end markets for consumer products including wireless devices as well as industrial application markets. The computer replacement cycle has been long overdue and will continue to add to demand although we are expecting some drop off for memory in the third quarter because of the higher prices as PC OEMs could cut back on what they offer consumers in the mid-range platforms.

Worldwide Semiconductor Revenue Forecast by Product TypeDatabeans Estimates