Spotlight on the future @ Computex 2010!

TAIWAN: Given the delicate contents and support from telecom carriers, iPad and iPhone 4G are definitely the hottest products in 2010.

DRAMeXchange forecasts 1H10 iPad shipment will likely be 1.7 million units, while 7~8 million units will be targeted for 2010. Meanwhile, NAND Flash consumption of iPad will account around 3 percent of total NAND Flash consumption.

The 2010 iPhone shipment is expected to reach 40 million units, while NAND Flash consumption will account for 9 percent of the total. We believe that the NAND Flash demand will be boosted by Apple products, which will likely result in the mild shortage in 2H'10.

Given the shining sale of iPad, DRAMeXchange expects that many PC-OEMs will start to penetrate into tablet PC market. Compared with million units sold at 74 days for iPhone, it took only less than a month for iPad to reach 1 million units sold. Generally speaking, we see seldom overlapping customer base from netbook and tablet PC.

Furthermore, iPad offers brand new using experience in terms of multi-touch and software/hardware application rather than the netbook. That is, DRAMeXchange expects that the tablet PC will create another new market after netbook.

In the 3D TV market, there are sveral developing technologies booming recently. With outstanding 3D image performance, the shutter glasses technology will most likely become a market mainstream.

In addition, for coding/decoding technology, 2D+Delta is the mainstream for its high performance and file size capability. As for Lenticular technology, in addition to performance and viewing angle, which need to be enhanced, the high cost involved in achieving 2D/3D switchable is also a major issue in its penetration.

Hardware-based 3D technology is expected to take off next year, though chips used are mainly those produced in-house by brand vendors. And demand for 3D will mainly be driven by movies and gaming.

However, in addition to high prices of 3D displays, the prices of other peripheral devices are also high due to their low penetration, which makes viewing 3D content at home an expensive form of entertainment. Therefore, consumers will have to wait another two~three years for the price of 3D display to reach the acceptable sweet spot.