2H’Apr. concerned DRAM vendors and aggressive procurement increased DDR3 average price

TAIWAN: According to DRAMeXchange, a research department of Trendforce, 2H’Apr. contract price indicates slightly upward trend that DDR3 2GB average price is up by 1.39% to $18.25 ($0.98/1Gb), DDR3 4GB average price is also up by 1.43 percent to $35.5 ($2.06/2Gb). We see the new procurement strategy from PC-OEM and problematic yield rate at 40nm process is the main concern besides the earthquake impact.

Some PC-OEMs tried to raise shipment in gaining market share, taking advantage of Acer’s erroneous product positioning and gloomy finance report, thus, it enhanced the DRAM demand. Meanwhile, two DRAM vendors encountered the shipment delay due to the problematic yield rate. The order re-allocation also credited to the momentum in raising contract price.

Wafer supply visibility for DRAM industry lasts to the end of June, the recovery of Shin-Etsu and SUMCO will be the key
Among all the components facing shortage, silicon wafer is a component severely impacted by the Japan earthquake. According to DRAMeXchange, silicon wafer visibility can be sustained until June given the overall industry inventory level. Most of the silicon wafer supply for Elpida and Rexchip is from the severely affected Shin-Etsu Fukushima Fab.

Shin-Etsu can support Polish wafer steadily and help the overall Elpida group to sustain a wafer visibility to June or even July. 25 percent of PSC silicon wafer supply is from the Shin-Etsu Fukushima Fab and mainly on the output of 45nm products. The wafer supply visibility can be assured to June with the help from Elpida. As for Hynix, 20 percent silicon wafer is from Shin-Etsu Fukushima Fab, and the incremental volume will be acquired from LG and other silicon wafer vendors.

As for the other DRAM vendors such as Samsung, Micron, Nanya, Inotera and Winbond are less impacted because most of the silicon wafers are from non-Japan areas. However, silicon wafer supply in 2H11 will be depended on the recovery of Shin-Etsu and SUMCO.

As for the recovery, Shin-Etsu Fukushima Fab is estimated to be back to normal operation in May, 70 percent of capacity is estimated by the year end. SUMCO Yonezawa is expected to recover in May while raising output from other Fabs. SUMCO is likely to reclaim its pre-quake capacity in May.