Intel likely to easily beat mid-point of its 1Q11 sales guidance

SCOTTSDALE, USA: After growing 23 percent in 2010, IC Insights forecasts that the worldwide MPU market will grow by another 21 percent this year. With another strong year expected for the MPU market, and given the latest trends in the 1Q11 MPU market as reported by WSTS (World Semiconductor Trade Statistics), IC Insights believes that Intel is highly likely to exceed the mid-point of its corporate sales guidance for 1Q11.

Currently, the company's 1Q11 guidance is for its sales to be flat ($11.5 billion), plus or minus 3.5 percent. Thus, the expected range of Intel's 1Q11 corporate sales is $11.1 billion to $11.9 billion, with the mid-point being $11.5 billion.

In 2010, Intel had $32.3 billion in MPU revenue, which represented about three-quarters (74 percent) of the company's total corporate sales of $43.6 billion. The company's $32.3 billion in MPU sales accounted for 81 percent of the $39.9 billion worldwide MPU market in 2010.

With this background, it is interesting to look at the January and February MPU sales as reported by WSTS. The combined worldwide January and February MPU sales dollars for 2011 were 42 percent greater than the combined January and February MPU sales level of 2010! Moreover, the combined January and February 2011 MPU sales were 28 percent higher than the combined October and November 2010 MPU sales (the first two months of 4Q10).

Thus, assuming that the WSTS January and February 1Q11 MPU data are correct, it appears that the worldwide MPU market is highly likely to grow at a strong double-digit growth rate in 1Q11 as compared to 4Q10. With the vast majority of the fast-growing MPU market going to Intel, and MPUs representing such a large portion of the company's total sales, it is hard to imagine Intel not easily surpassing the mid-point of its 1Q11 sales guidance.

With the company due to release its results for 1Q11 on April 19, we don't have long to wait to see if our expect ations are correct.