Dumbfounded by the semiconductor forecasts? Me too!

NEW TRIPOLI, USA: It seems a week doesn’t go by when we see forecasts for semiconductor and equipment change. For example:

3/30/2011. - VLSI Research Inc. has increased its IC forecast amid stronger-than-expected demand in the first quarter. IC sales for 2011 are now expected to increase 12.2 percent, compared to the previous forecast of 8.9 percent.

4/25/2011 - It's a mixed picture for ICs, according to VLSI Research Inc.'s "Semiconductor Analytics" report. For the week ended April 15, IC billings were $4.72 billion in the period, down 6 percent from the previous week, but up 8 percent from the like period a year ago, according to the report.

April 6, 2011 - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) reduced its growth estimates for the global non-memory semiconductor market this year due to the depressing effect of China's inflation-fighting measures and the earthquake in Japan, Chairman Morris Chang said in a statement. Chang said TSMC revised down its growth forecasts for the non-memory chip industry to 4 percent this year from its earlier estimate of 7 percent as "the semiconductor industry will not be as strong as we just thought three or four months ago."

April 11, 2011 - In an ironic twist, supply disruptions related to the Japan earthquake and tsunami will contribute to higher than previously expected global semiconductor revenue in 2011, as shortages bolster pricing for key memory devices, new IHS iSuppli research indicates. The latest IHS iSuppli semiconductor forecast for 2011, issued on March 30, calls for annual semiconductor revenue growth of 7 percent, up from the 5.8 percent expansion predicted in the previous outlook from early February. Global semiconductor revenue in 2011 now is expected to amount to $325.2 billion, compared to the previous forecast of $320.1 billion.

The last is my favorite. As if..iSuppli knows more than TSMC chairman Morris Chang!

Fortunately the news coming out of these magazines is free, and you get what you paid for. But, how many of you actually paid for the reports offered by these companies? We can help. Below is an example of our Proprietary Leading Indicators (PLLs) for semiconductors.

Our PLLs started turning down in March 2008, seven months before the semiconductor revenues started turning down.Source: The Information Network, USA.