Global DRAM revenue increases 6.9 percent in 1Q10

TAIWAN: According to DRAMeXchange, the 1Q10 DDR3 average contract price and spot price has risen 16 percent and 14 percent, respectively after the huge jump-up of 40 percent and 30 percent, respectively, in 4Q09.

The 1Q10 DDR2 average contract price and spot price also rose 5 percent, but was flat given the strong 61 percent and 68 percent price rise during 4Q09.

The 1Q10 DDR3 market indicates the tight supply since PC-OEMs have sharply increased the DDR3 portion to 60 percent from 40 percent in 4Q09. PC-OEMS also pulled up the DDR2 inventory level given the higher DDR2 exposure in spot market and aggressive DDR3 migration from DRAM vendors. That resulted in the fact that the DDR2 1Gb chip spot price has reached $3.
　
Despite the slow season in 1Q10, we see the price still maintains its strong momentum, while the DRAM demand is still at the same level as the volume in 4Q09 with the concern of shortage in 2H’10.

According to DRAMeXchange, the 1Q10 DRAM revenue ranking has demonstrated the ups and downs in the range of -15 percent to 37 percent. Samsung, Micron, Powerchip and ProMOS have shown above-average sales growth in 1Q10.

According to DRAMeXchange, 1Q10 revenue has grown 6.9 percent QoQ to $9,277 million, thanks to the higher demand in slow season. With the continuous 46nm technology migration, Samsung, the market leader, recorded $3,000 million quarterly revenue with 9.1 percent revenue growth QoQ and the quarterly supply bit growth also increased 15 percent. Its leading market share has slightly increased by 0.6 percent to 32.3 percent due to the above-average revenue growth.

During 1Q10, Hynix's DRAM sales rose 6.8 percent to $1,998 million given the 3 percent average price growth and 6 percent quarterly bit growth. Currently, Hynix ranks at the 2nd place.

Elpida recorded 1Q10 revenue of $1,618 million with -3.7 percent QoQ, given the high base in 4Q09. Elpida has strengthened its market leading 3rd position. For the different accounting period (1Q for Micron is Dec., Jan. and Feb.) it applied, contract price rose 7 percent compared with last periods (Sep., Oct. and Nov.). Benefitting from the price and 17 percent QoQ shipment enhancement in this quarter, Micron recorded $1,311 million quarterly revenue with 24 percent QoQ revenue growth. Micron grabbed the 4th place in the ranking.

As for Taiwanese vendors, they have benefited from the upward DDR3/DDR2 spot price and 3 percent QoQ supply bit growth. PSC shows 8.3 percent revenue growth to $442 million in 1Q10. Nanya recorded $425 million as 1Q10 revenue with -14.4 percent QoQ due to -5 percent price decline as well as -8 percent in terms of shipment base.

PSC has surpassed Nanya and is ranked in the No.5 place. Winbond announced its 1Q10 DRAM revenue at $174 million with 4.8 percent QoQ, while recording 1.9 percent market share. Benefiting from the 60 percent bit growth in 1Q10, ProMOS recorded 37.4 percent QoQ revenue growth while its market share has slightly increased 0.3 percent to 1.3 percent.

The share of the Korean vendors has slightly increased by 0.8 percent to 54.6 percent in 1Q10 since the Korean vendors has outperformed the industry average. Japanese vendors’ share has declined 1.9 percent to 17.7 percent. American vendors share increased 2 percent to 14.3 percent given the better-than-average sales growth. Taiwanese vendors shares is down 0.9 percent to 13.4 percent because of the revenue-decline at Nanya.

Fig. 1: 1Q10 WW DRAM revenue ranking, by own brand DRAM revenue
(Company revenue includes outsourced portion and excludes the sub-manufacturing revenue)