1Q11 sales ranking of branded NAND flash makers

TAIWAN, INDIA: According to DRAMeXchange, a research department of Trendforce, given the Toshiba/SanDisk power outage in mid-December, NAND Flash supply was impacted in early 1Q11. With the dynamics of:

a) Inventory replenishment for Chinese New Year holiday,
b) Slow season for retail memory card and UFD market from 2HFebruary,
c) Apple launched iPad2 in early March, and
d) An uncertainty toward mid-term supply condition after Japan earthquake in mid-March, we see the dramatic pricing fluctuation that 1Q11 branded NAND Flash ASP(average selling price) declined about 3% QoQ(Quarter on Quarter).

However, despite of sluggish retail memory card and UFD, the demand from OEM orders of some other tablet PC and Smartphone makers grows steady. Thus, 1Q11 branded NAND Flash bit shipment growth is about 13 percent QoQ and revenue is up 9.9 percent QoQ to $5.36 billion.Source: DRAMeXchange, Taiwan.

From the 1Q11 branded NAND Flash vendors’ market share, Samsung remained the leader with a 36.2 percent market share and $1.94 billion revenue, while Toshiba came in second with a 35.1 percent market share and $1.88 billion sales. Micron ranked at the third with an 11.4 percent share and $610 million in revenue, followed lastly by Hynix with 10.7 percent share and $574 million sales. Intel tapped in the fifth place with a 6.6 percent share and $355 million revenue.

1Q11 operation analysis of branded NAND flash makers
Samsung Electronics: Offset by the strong demands from some Smartphone and tablet PC customers, impact from the softened channel memory card and UFD market is eased. 1Q11 bit shipment growth is above 20% QoQ while ASP declined approximately 10 percent. Along with the Korean won appreciation, 1Q11 revenue increased about 8.8 percent QoQ to $1.94 billion with 36.2 percent market share. Samsung indicated the stable OEM orders from system product customers will be sustained in 2Q11 while retail market is still weak.

The 2Q11 bit shipment growth will be over 30 percent QoQ. However, the dynamics in 2Q11 makes the price hard to determine. Samsung will focus on 27nm node product portion enhancement and 21nm migration in the 2H11 along with the system product customer portion for new embedded products and SSD.

Toshiba: Impacted by the power outage in early December, the output in January and February is limited in 2011. Despite of the slight price decline and mild bit shipment growth, OEM orders from some stable Smartphone and tablet PC customers and strategic memory card partners help the 1Q11 revenue to grow about 8 percent to $1.88 billion with 35.1 percent market share.

Toshiba will continue to raise portion in the 24nm node products and migration to the 19nm in 2H11. The 300mm Fab5, JV with SanDisk, will dedicate to operation from 2H11 while about 50 percent of new capacity will be acquired by Toshiba. Meanwhile, Toshiba will also strengthen the sales portion from system product customers with embedded products and SSD.

Micron: Benefited from certain system product OEM customer, self-owned Lexar distribution channels and synergy from Numonyx acquisition in embedded product business, quarterly bit shipment grows about 20 percent QoQ, partially offset by price decline, while revenue increases about 12.1 percent QoQ to US$610 million with 11.4 percent market share. Since 25nm node has turned to the mainstream status in 1Q11, Micron expects bit output growth for next quarter will be up to 10 percent QoQ.

With the stable demand from system product customers and uncertainty toward supply after earthquake, Micron indicates ASP will likely to slightly increase in next quarter. Meanwhile, the 300mm Singapore fab, joint venture with Intel, will likely be enhanced to 60K pieces per month by the year end. Micron will also raising the sales exposure in new embedded products for the emerging smart mobile devices and SSD.

Hynix Semiconductor: In 1Q11, Hynix offset the softened retail memory card and UFD demand by system product portion enhancement. That is, 1Q11 bit shipment growth is about 15 percent QoQ, while the ASP remains flat. The 1Q11 revenue increased about 12.5 percent QoQ to $574 million and a 10.7 percent market share. Hynix expected the strong OEM demand from some smartphone and tablet PC makers will help 2Q11 bit shipment growth to increase more than 30 percent QoQ.

Around 5 percent QoQ ASP decline is forecasted given the tighter supply after the earthquake may help to ease the slow season impact of retail memory card and pan-drive in 2Q11. Hynix will continue focus on 26nm node portion enhancement and the new 20mn migration in 2H11. Also, Hynix will focus on the embedded products and new SSD to increase the share of system product customers.

Intel: Benefited from the raising SSD sales on ASP and bit shipment growth, 1Q11 revenue increased about 18.3 percent QoQ to $355 million with a 6.6 percent market share. In 1Q11 IM Flash leads other vendors in 25nm 64Gb TLC and launched the 25nm SSD in the consideration of lowering the cost. The Singapore joint venture has already joined operation in 1H11, and Intel is expected to acquire less than 20 percent of new capacity.

In 2H11, Intel will launch new 20nm process technology products and continue the efforts in raising sales portion from system product customers.