Global DRAM revenue increases 42 percent in 4Q09

TAIWAN: According to DRAMeXchange, 4Q09 revenue has grown 42 percent due to the hiking DRAM average price and output enhancement, which has shown another progress after 40 percent revenue growth 3Q09.

With the Windows 7 launch in end of Oct. and recovering macro-economy, demand in 4Q09 has outperformed our expectation. DDR2 still remained its mainstream memory standard in 4Q09 that demand is much stronger than DDR3 since demand for middle/entry level models looks good. That is, DDR2 shortage happened in 4Q09 and resulted in the up climbing DDR2 contract price in Oct. and Nov., as well as stable pricing level in Dec. Based on DRAMeXchange check, the DDR2 average contract price has sharply rose 61 percent in 4Q09 while spot price also climbed 68 percent.

Despite less shortage impact for DDR3, the DDR3 contract price rose along with the DDR2 that the DDR3 contract price increased 40 percent and 30 percent for spot price. Regarding to output capacity, 4Q09 DRAM supply bit growth rate is up 20 percent given the continuous technology migration and pulling-up utilization rate from Taiwanese vendors.

Given the boosting DRAM price and output, DRAM vendors recorded the satisfactory revenue growth in 4Q09. PSC has largely outperformed market average by showing 111.6 percent revenue growth, followed by Elpida with 63.9 percent revenue growth.

According to DRAMeXchange, 4Q09 revenue has grown 42 percent QoQ to $8,682 million due to the hiking DRAM price and hot PC sales. Despite 8” fabs phase out, Samsung, the market leader, recorded $2,750 million quarterly revenue with 26.5 percent QoQ given the technology migration 50 nm from 40nm, 18 percent QoQ bit growth and upward DRAM pricing trend. Its leading market share has slightly declined from 3.9 percent to 31.7 percent due to the below-average revenue grwoth.

In 4Q09, Hynix's DRAM sales rose 42 percent to $ 1,871 million given the 26 percent average price growth, 12 percent quarterly bit growth. Currently Hynix ranks as 2nd place.

Elpida recorded 4Q09 revenue in $1,680 million with 63.9 percent QoQ benefited from 30 percent upward DRAM quarterly average price and 30 percent bit growth. Elpida has strengthened its 3rd market leading position. For the different accounting period (4Q for Micron is Sep., Oct. and Nov.) it applied, contract price rose 21 percent compared with last periods (Jun., Jul. and Aug.).

Benefited from the price and 25 percent QoQ shipment enhancement in this quarter, Micron recorded $1,057 million quarterly revenue with 50 percent QoQ revenue growth. Micron grabbed 4th place in the ranking.

As for Taiwanese vendors, Nanya ranks 5th post along with $496 million DRAM revenue and 48.7 percent QoQ given the upward pricing trend in average quarterly price (44 percent) and 2 percent quarterly shipment growth.

Benefited from the boosting 68 percent DDR2 spot price and 45 percent supply growth rate, PSC shows the amazing 111.6 percent revenue growth in 4Q09 and market share has increased 1.5 percent to 4.7 percent. PSC has shortened the market share gap with Nanya in 4Q09. Winbond announced its 4Q09 DRAM revenue in $166 million with 13.5 percent QoQ revenue while recording 1.9 percent market share. Benefited from the increasing utilization rate to 50 percent from 21 percent in 3Q09, ProMOS recorded 27.9 percent QoQ revenue growth.

The Korean vendor’s share has declined 4.2 percent to 53.8 percent in 4Q09 since other vendors indicate higher revenue growth. Japanese vendors’ share has increased 2.6 percent to 19.6 percent. Benefited from the sales boosting (111.6 percent) of PSC, Taiwanese vendors shares has increased 1 percent to 14.3 percent. American vendors share increased 0.6 percent to 12.3 percent.Note 1:
4Q09 Samsung revenue figure is derived from the 4Q09 consolidated financial reports.

Note 2: Fig. 1: For Samsung 4Q09 DRAM revenue, we approximately derived the resulted by deducting LSI revenue from semiconductor (8.02 trillion KRW) based on the assumption that DRAM revenue accounts for 40 percent in memory sectors and 4Q09 average exchange rate is $1 against KRW $1,166.7.

We apply this estimation to other vendors by indicating 78 percent for Hynix total revenue, 60.8 percent for Micron, 87 percent for PSC, 83 percent for ProMOS, 96 percent for Nanya and 82 percent for Winbond under the following exchange rate: US$1 against NT$32.28, US$1 against JPY$89.9.