SCOTTSDALE, USA: IC Insights' new 220-page Mid-Year Update to The McClean Report shows that the 2010 worldwide semiconductor market is forecast to register the largest dollar volume increase in history—$72 billion (to $310 billion total).
As shown in Fig. 1, the 2010 increase is expected to exceed the previous record high of $59 billion, set in 2000, by 22 percent.
The $72 billion increase in 2010 would equate to a growth rate of 30 percent over 2009. This 30 percent jump would be the sixth largest in the past 32 years and the highest since the 37 percent increase 10 years ago in 2000.
Fig. 1Source: IC Insights, USA.
A large percentage of the $72 billion 2010 semiconductor market increase is forecast to be quickly converted into a rush of capital spending by the semiconductor producers.
As detailed in The Mid-Year Update, 2010 semiconductor industry capital spending is expected to surge by $21.4 billion, an 83 percent jump over 2009 (to $47.2 billion total)! This $21.4 billion increase in capital spending represents 30 percent of the total semiconductor industry dollar volume growth forecast for this year.
Although worldwide GDP is forecast to grow by 3.9 percent in 2010, this growth rate is only 0.3 point above the long-term average rate of 3.6 percent. Thus, the real driving force behind the $72 billion semiconductor market increase this year is the extremely strong growth in the PC and smartphone segments.
In 2010, PC unit volume shipments are forecast to grow by at least 18 percent, to 338 million, with smartphone unit sales expected to surge by 21 percent to 275 million. Moreover, momentum is still building, with both segments forecast to register at least 10 percent higher unit volume shipments in the second half of this year as compared to the first half.
Source: IC Insights, USA.