4Q12 branded NAND flash supplier ranking

TAIWAN: According to DRAMeXchange, a research division of TrendForce, affected by the slow recovery of the global economy, NAND Flash market demand has been mostly stagnant for the first three quarters of 2012.

However, with the revival of the replenishment demand following the release of new smartphone and tablet models in 4Q, and with Toshiba's production cuts gradually taking effect, the supply-demand situation within the NAND Flash market has slightly tightened throughout 4Q12.

As a result, during the fourth quarter, the NAND Flash ASP has been roughly equivalent to that of the previous quarter, whereas bit shipments from branded NAND Flash suppliers grew by around 15 percent QoQ. The total 4Q12 revenue of the branded NAND Flash is approximately $5.304 billion, which is roughly 14.6 percent QoQ higher than the amount in 3Q12.

In terms of the 2012 fourth quarter sales rankings, Samsung remains in first place with a revenue of $2.054 billion, about 38.7 percent market share; Toshiba is at second place with $1.466 billion, 27.6 percent of the market; SK Hynix is third with $673 million, 12.7 percent of the market; Micron is fourth with $655 million, 12.3 percent of the market; and Intel is fifth with $455 million, 8.6 percent of the market.

For the overall 2012 sales rankings, Samsung holds first place with a revenue of $7.286 billion, which is about 38.2 percent market share; Toshiba is at second place with $5.322 billion, 27.9 percent of the market; Micron is third with $2.648 billion, 13.9 percent of the market; SK Hynix is fourth with $2.261 billion, 11.9 percent of the market; and Intel is fifth with $1.545 billion, 8.1 percent of the market.

The total 2012 revenue from branded NAND Flash suppliers is $19.062 billion, which is about a 6.6 percent decrease YoY.

Samsung: Despite being affected by the appreciation of the Korean won, with the revitalized demand for Samsung’s embedded products and SSDs from the system product OEM orders, and with the NAND Flash market’s supply-demand balance returning, the bit shipment for the fourth quarter of 2012 has increased by over 20 percent QoQ. 

As ASP dropped by below 10 percent QoQ compared to last quarter, fourth quarter revenue has grown by 12.8 percent QoQ, arriving at $2.054 billion and giving Samsung 38.7 percent market share. 

Samsung predicts that for 1Q13, the demand for its system products will be negatively affected by the effects of the traditional off-peak quarter. The bit output growth, as such, is projected to be less than 10 percent QoQ. While Samsung’s NAND Flash products are primarily produced using the 21nm process, in 1H13, the company will continue to develop the 1xnm process for its embedded products and SSDs.

Toshiba: Although Toshiba implemented a 30 percent production cut, output utilization rate climbed in 4Q12 thanks to the increased OEM orders from system product clients. Because of the depreciation of the Japanese yen and the increasing use of the 19nm process technology, fourth quarter ASP is stable and bit shipment has shown a growth compared to the previous quarter.

The 4Q12 revenue, likewise, increased 21.1 percent QoQ, arriving at $1.466 billion and giving Toshiba 27.6 percent market share. As Toshiba expects its system product clients to be affected by the traditional effects of the off-peak season, the company is likely to stick to using its flexible capacity adjustment strategies. Throughout 1H13, the company will also continue with its efforts to develop the 1xnm NAND Flash process technology.

SK Hynix: Despite the appreciation of the won, factors such as the increased OEM orders for embedded products, along with the revitalized demand from within China’s white-box smartphone market, have contributed to SK Hynix’s 19 percent QoQ bit shipment growth and the 6 percent QoQ increase in ASP. 

The 4Q12 revenue has risen by 25.9 percent QoQ, resulting in $673 million revenue and 12.7 percent market share. Given the effects of the traditional off-peak quarter, SK Hynix anticipates 1Q13 bit output to only climb by around 5 percent QoQ. At the moment, the company primarily uses the 20nm process technology, although it expects to begin producing products using 1xnm process during 1H13.  

Micron: Given Micron’s continuous efforts to raise the proportion of revenue generated by embedded and SSD products, its ASP has increased by approximately 8 percent from the previous quarter. Bit shipment, however, decreased by approximately 10 percent QoQ as the proportion of products produced by the new 20nm process ended up being lower than expected. 4Q12 revenue, as such, fell by around 1.7 percent, ending at $655 million and giving Micron an approximate 12.3 percent market share. 

With the proportion of new 20nm products set to increase on a gradual basis throughout 1H13, bit output is projected to increase by over 10 percent QoQ. On the other hand, with the supply-demand situation in the NAND Flash market improving, Micron expects 1Q13 ASP to decline by less than 10 percent QoQ. In the future, the company is expected to increase the proportion of revenue made from its system product clients.

Intel: Because of the increased proportion of revenue generated by SSDs during the fourth quarter, and because of the return of the NAND Flash market to a healthy state, Intel’s ASP has remained steady, whereas its bit shipment grew by around 15 percent QoQ. 

For the fourth quarter, Intel’s revenue has climbed by around 15.2 percent QoQ, ending at $455 million and giving the company 8.6 percent market share. In 1H13, Intel will continue to increase the proportion of SSD and mSATA products, and put greater emphasis on the new 20nm process technology.

With warming inventory build-ahead from robust OEM demand and balanced market dynamics contributed from Toshiba capacity reduction, 4Q12 ASP was steadily stabilized. Also the bit shipment was driven by demand from smartphone and tablet. The 4Q12 NAND Flash market revenue increased 14.6 percent QoQ to $5.304 billion that turn down the consensus on slow 4Q12 NAND Flash market.