DRAM contract prices to rise 10-15 percent MoM in May

TAIPEI, TAIWAN: Sources indicate that the biggest DRAM spot market suppliers, Powerchip and Elpida, have stopped shipping chips to the spot market, resulting in tighter supply, says DRAMeXchange. Therefore, DDR2 1Gb spot prices have stayed strong at US$1.2. Meanwhile, marketers expect to see the prices move towards US$1.5 by end of June.

According to DRAMeXchange’s survey, DRAM contract price, the “low” in May is expected to move to the range of US$9-US$10 per GB from the US$8 to US$8.5 per GB in April, up roughly 15 percent MoM. Some DRAM makers are even aggressively setting the target up to US$12 or US$13 per GB for May. The tier-one PC OEMs expect to see a mild growth, while the tier-two or tier-three PC OEMs may be forced to accept US$11-US$12 per GB price in May, DRAM makers indicated.

DRAMeXchange notes that the PC shipment growth in February, March and April reached 3.1 percent, 16.8 percent and 5.3 percent, respectively. The better than expected PC shipment helped consume PC OEMs' DRAM inventory.

As DRAM makers sharply cut back on production and control their respective inventory in hoping to push DRAM prices higher, DRAMeXchange believes the DRAM upward trend can continue through 3Q09 and the low price of the 1GB chip can reach US$12. If DRAM makers continue to maintain production cuts and inventory control, DDR2 1Gb may soon reach US$1.5.