NEW TRIPOLI, USA: The semiconductor equipment market will begin its recovery by October 2009 based on proprietary leading indicators, according to the report: “The Global Market for Equipment and Materials for IC Manufacturing,” recently published by The Information Network.
“Our proprietary leading indicators, which determine inflection points in economic activity and which we utilize to show turning points in semiconductor equipment sales have turned positive, indicating that an upturn in equipment sales will begin by October ,” noted Dr. Robert N. Castellano, president of The Information Network. “We have been using these indicators since 2000 and they have proven to be highly quantitative metrics in every forecast we have given, and in nearly every given year we have not had to change our forecast midstream. We do not give forecasts in tenths of percentages only to change them two months later.”
We successfully predicted in our release of May 27 that Mainland China’s cross-straits investment in Taiwan will help the island country to survive the global crisis and at the same time help fix its own IC market. Taiwan has now reversed its stance and is considering allowing 300mm fabs in China. These actions will spur the equipment market in China, which has historically been utilizing refurbished 200mm equipment in its fabs.
“Objective, concrete evidence comes from the positive activity in our proprietary leading indicators in the US. Both our long and short indicators turned up in late 2008, pointing to a business recovery cycle and giving visibility that the days of the recession are numbered,” added Dr. Castellano.
As the recession eases, companies and consumers will unleash pent-up demand and make the electronic purchases driving the semiconductor market, which has already turned positive.