IC Insights updated forecast: Two IC products forecast to grow in tough '09

USA: WSTS (Worldwide Semiconductor Trade Statistics) classifies ICs into 29 distinct product categories. Only two of these segments -- telecom-analog and telecom-special purpose logic/MPR -- are forecast to show revenue growth in 2009 according to a just-released market forecast from IC Insights.

Spurred by the ongoing movement to higher-end cellphones (i.e., smartphones), the Telecom-Analog IC market is forecast to grow 4 percent to $8.3 billion and the Telecom-Special Purpose Logic market is now forecast to increase 14 percent to $22.2 billion in 2009. Besides wireless handsets, basestations, Bluetooth connections, and Wi-Fi networks are also helping to drive growth in these IC segments.

As shown in Fig. 1, cellphone unit shipments are forecast to decline 8 percent in 2009, yet significant quarterly growth is expected from the low-point exhibited in 1Q09. In fact, 4Q09 cellphone unit shipments are forecast to be 27 percent greater than in 1Q09 and higher than any quarter of 2008!Source: IC Insights

Among all cellphones, 3G smartphones continue to represent an increasing portion of shipments. These feature-rich, high-end phones and the infrastructure needed to support them require a significant amount of leading-edge logic, a large amount of memory, and analog ICs specific for telecom applications.

According to IC Insights' research, smartphones accounted for 15 percent of the 245 million cellphone units shipped in 1Q09 and are forecast to represent slightly more than 20 percent of the 310 million cellphone shipments in 4Q09.

Aside from increases in these two wireless-telecom IC segments, all other product categories are forecast to decrease in sales in 2009.