Semiconductor wafer demand: Too much capacity in 2011?

PHOENIX, USA: According to Semico, with semiconductor sales soaring to a possible 30 percent increase this year, companies are ramping up capacity to meet current and expected demand. But the capital invested during the balance of 2010 will not impact actual capacity until sometime in 2011. So does this mean an overcapacity situation in 2011?

While units are growing at 28 percent this year, wafer demand is only growing at less than 20 percent. Productivity improvements from process technology transitions and improved yields have helped squeeze more out of our existing capacity. But the product mix also has a big impact on wafer demand!

There has been a big increase in analog and discrete products, including optoelectronics. These products are finding improved efficiencies in a move to larger wafer sizes.

Unit demand is likely to grow by another 20 percent in 2011. The impact on wafers varies by product and technology node.

More detailed wafer demand forecast information can be found in Semico Research's latest release Wafer Demand Summary and Assumptions Q2'10. The quarterly publication includes an excel spreadsheet with annual wafer demand by product by technology from 2002-2014.

Product categories include DRAM, SRAM, NAND, NOR, Other Non-volatile, MPU, MCU, DSP, Computing Micro Logic, Communications, Other Micro Logic, Programmable Logic, Standard Cell, Gate Array, Analog, Discrete, Optoelectronics, Digital Bipolar. In addition, a four-page summary write-up provides the major assumptions behind the forecast and changes from the previous quarter.