NAND Flash contract price appears up and down with mixed market factors

TAIPEI, TAIWAN: The mainstream MLC NAND Flash contract price appears to go up and down with mixed factors that some suppliers slightly adjusted down 2-5 percent on some high-density MLC NAND Flash contract price to spur the demand since output portion of high-density products produced by more advanced process technologies (4xnm and 3xnm) is raised along with cost advantage.

In the meantime, output portion of low-density products produced by more mature process technologies declines and some suppliers mildly adjusted up 5~7 percent NAND Flash contract price on some low-density MLC chips, says DRAMeXchange.

Fig. 1 16Gb MLC NAND Flash Contract Price TrendSource: DRAMeXchange, Aug. 2009.

Despite of long-term restock orders from cellular and MP3 system customers in 3Q09, DRAMeXchange believes that memory card and UFD customers are still in the status of slow season in early August. However, the inventory replenishment for memory card and UFD products is expected to gradually recover staring from late August.

Some suppliers will slightly increase the wafer output in 3Q09 and most suppliers will gradually raise the output portion of 3xnm process technology after August. It will result in the pressure of upward pricing trend for high-density chips.

Combined with the above positive and negative market factors and quarter-end effect in coming September, DRAMeXchange expects NAND Flash market to roughly stay at a more balanced status in 3Q09.

Fig. 2 64Gb MLC NAND Flash Contract Price TrendSource: DRAMeXchange, Aug. 2009.

Nevertheless, NAND Flash suppliers will apply different pricing strategies depending on individual client base, order mix and process technology breakdown. Therefore, NAND Flash contract price may continue to demonstrate the mild ups and downs pattern or roughly stay stable in the short term.