Only three companies, Intel, Samsung, and TSMC, are expected to have capital outlays exceeding $1.0 billion in 2009, down from eight companies in 2008, and 16 companies in 2007 (Figure 1). As shown in the figure, these three companies alone have been part of the "Billion-Dollar Club" every year since 2000.
Source: IC InsightsAs shown, the billion-dollar spenders accounted for a record-high 74 percent of worldwide semiconductor industry capital expenditures in 2007. This figure fell to 56 percent in 2008 and is likely to drop to 43 percent in 2009.
While only three companies are expected to spend $1.0 billion or more on capex in 2009, they will represent a very significant amount of the total worldwide semiconductor industry capital spending for the year.
The average amount of capex spent by companies on the billion-dollar club list is forecast to be $3.84 billion in 2009, up 28 percent from $3.01 billion in 2008. Intel ($4.7 billion) and Samsung ($4.5 billion) will spend significantly more than the average, while TSMC has budgeted $2.3 billion.
Intel (-10 percent) and Samsung (-33 percent) are forecast to spend less than they did in 2008, while TSMC's planned capex is up 23 percent from its 2008 spending level.
Capital spending as a percent of semiconductor sales reached a record low of 16 percent in 2008. With only three companies dedicating $1.0 billion or more for capital equipment in 2009, this ratio is forecast to move even lower, to only about 12 percent this year!
As described in the Mid-Year Update, IC Insights believes that these record low capital spending as a percent of sales ratios will lead to much stronger IC average selling prices (ASPs) beginning in 2010 and extending through 2012.
Source: IC Insights
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