Dramatic price forecast to reshape PV industry: iSuppli

I was very fortunate to attend a webinar on solar PV a couple of days back, thanks to iSuppli, USA. The webinar looked at:

* Polysilicon -- what is going on in the market?
* Cells and modules -- where will the prices go?

Dr. Henning Wicht, senior director and principal analyst, iSuppli, made it clear that the intention was to show what's coming out of primary industry research.

He said: "We believe that solar is a fantastic market. It has been growing over the last four years by revenue. It will continue to grow! There are not many industries with a growth path like that! However, in last the 18 months, the supply has been disconnected from demand."

This is exactly the point iSuppli addressed in its webinar. Dr. Wicht was accompanied by Stefan de Haan, senior analyst, photovoltaics, iSuppli.

iSuppli's recent findings are:
* Severe supply chain imbalances exist at polysilicon/wafer and cell/module levels.
* Short term polysilicon and module prices will decrease significantly.

Polysilicon: What's going on with supply and pricing?
If you looked at the global solar PV industry, many plants are under construction, and there are huge capacity expansion plans. There has been a dramatic decrease in production. In 2008, iSuppli estimated total production of solar PV at 60,000 metric tons. In 2009, about 100,000 metric tons will be produced!

What are the reasons for this supply situation? In 2005-06, the high margins of this industry attracted several newcomers. The cycle time to ramp up a polysilicon plant is 24-36 months, and including another 12 months to get finance, it takes about four years.

He said: "The decisions taken in year 2005-06 are coming to the market now. This is also why we see the big ramp in 2009-10. This is also the reason why the industry will have big difficulties to react on a short term notice. The polysilicon industry is a big super tanker, which has difficulties to maneuver on short term."

Looking at the demand side of things, iSuppli showed a graph where the two curves -- polysilicon supply and polysilicon demand meet, or rather cross, in early 2010. From that point on, the supply line passes the demand line. "That means, from that time onward, we definitely see prices for polysilicon decreasing," he said.

What will happen in 2009?
The key point to note is that the ramping rates of polysilicon and solar cells are completely different! The ramping rate of polysilicon is much steeper, than on the cell side. Polysilicon is more than doubling, while the cell industry is growing at 34 percent.

According to Dr. Wicht, the gap between demand and supply is already shrinking fast in 2009, which will lead to a price decrease in 2009.

Coming to prices, the polysilicon market boasts two kinds of prices -- long term and spot market. According to Dr. Wicht, the long term prices are already decreasing from around $100/kg in 2008, and it is expected to be around $80/kg in 2009.

On the other hand, the spot market price peaked in 2008 at around $400/kg. Now, it has already dropped. It will continue to drop, far beyond today's long term contract price, which will then, from 2010 onward, make up another round of discussion. This is because companies might tend to get out of their long term contracts to secure their silicon on the spot!

Summarizing, he said that polysilicon production will increase heavily. Next, supply will pass demand from 2010 onward, and then the industry will enter the oversupply situation for the next three to four years. The polysilicon industry will also react. In fact, iSuppli anticipates a recent announcement from a solar PV company to expand production capacity would be the last for quite a while!

What about projects on the way? These projects have to come on to the market and many of those will! This is precisely the reason why the industry will see silicon passing solar cells in capacity over the next few years.

Stefan de Haan added that the output of the PV modules industry will grow. The total module prod will likely grow to 11GW this year and to 20GW in 2012. Thin film modules will continuously gain market share and it probably account for 1/3rd of the total market by 2012. Production of crystalline cells will run in parallel. It is likely to reach 9GW for 2009 and 18GW for 2012.

Commenting on the competitive landscape, he added that many new players would be entering production in 2009, especially in the thin film business. "However, the current leaders -- QCells, Suntech and First Solar -- will increase their edge over the competition in terms of absolute production volumes," he said.

In general, it is a good thing that the industry is growing and that all of this capacity is coming online. However, this raises the question: can demand can keep up with the supply?

According to iSuppli, in 2009, the installation market will be flattening. In the sense, iSuppli projects that 4.2GW will be installed this year, or about 10 percent growth. However, this growth is much smaller in comparison to the previous years. Some of the reasons for slower growth in 2009 include changes in sustained feed-in tariffs and the global economic slowdown.

Hann added, "In H2-2010, module demand will probably return to the previous growth rates, of more than 20 percent per year."

Combining demand and supply, there is a massive oversupply of modules that has already been building up since early 2008. Back in 2008, this did not impact on the module prices as there was short term heavy demand from countries like Germany and Spain, from project developers and installation companies, etc. So, this was not noticeable earlier. However, in 2009, the oversupply situation is quite serious!

As a consequence, many suppliers will not be able to react to this situation in the short term. They will still need to run their factories to try and generate some revenue and satisfy the industry. Many had bet on some strong demand coming from USA and also China.

This year, the module prices will decline. Consequently, the declining prices will also create some additional demand. However, for the next two years, this fundamental oversupply situation will not change.

How far will prices drop?
So, what are the message for 2009? First, crystalline module prices will drop to about $2.50 per watt, and second, cost is going to be the differentiating factor! This was a point emphasized strongly by the iSuppli analysts.

Further, how should companies manage this situation, where supply is disconnected by demand? According to Dr. Wicht, there is 11.1GW of module supply vs. 4.2GW of installations. "We do not see that the demand is elastic and that everything will be good after the end of 2009. The gap is too large between demand and supply, and will last till end of 2010."

Installation capacity will surely become a bottleneck. There will be falling prices for silicon, as well as solar cells and modules. Also, the demand is not that elastic enough to absorb all modules produced.

Therefore, given this situation, what are the options for success, rather, what are the ideas to re-orient the solar PV business?

The first option could be to shut down 50 percent of production till price recovers. However, this is not a realistic option. Another could be to put expansion plans on hold. Yet another option for producers would be to become the best in class in production cost, an option, which is excellent, but difficult!

Probably, the best option would be for makers to integrate downstream. This includes new demand simulation in established markets as well as developing new markets.

Dr. Wicht said: "Anticipating bottlenecks are key for solar. The next bottlenecks are the bureaucracy and installation capacity. The production capacity would not be influential. Production cost and downstream integration are key." He advised solar PV producers to monitor their PV market demand and supply situation regularly.

Cadence's Encounter and how it matches up to Synopsys' Galaxy!

Early December 2008, Cadence Design Systems launched the Cadence Encounter Digital Implementation System, said to be a configurable digital implementation platform that delivers an incredible scalability with complete support for parallel processing across the design flow. Will it change the fortunes of the struggling EDA industry? EDA industry stats for Q3-08 given at the end of this post!

My first thoughts immediately went to Synopsys' Galaxy Custom Designer solution. This is the industry’s first modern-era mixed-signal implementation solution. Is the Cadence Encounter an answer to Synopsys' Galaxy? This is worth a shot!

Obviously, why has Cadence released Encounter now? How will the Encounter take on Synopsys' Galaxy? I managed to engage Rahul Deokar, Product Marketing Director, Cadence, to find out more.

The Encounter Digital Implementation System is a next generation high-performance, high-capacity RTL-GDS-II design closure solution with the industry's first end-to-end parallel processing flow that enables all steps of the design flow to be multi-CPU enabled -- from floorplanning, placement, routing, extraction to timing and signal integrity sign-off. He said, "At its core is a new memory management architecture and end to end multi-CPU backplane that provides scalability with increased performance and capacity to reduce design time and time-to-market."

Does it intend to take on Synopsys' Galaxy? Well, Deokar said: "Yes, it surpasses the other solutions available in the marketplace based on the following capabilities and features, which are:
* Ultra-scalable RTL-to-GDS-II system with superior design closure and signoff analysis for low-power, mixed-signal, advanced node designs.
* End-to-end multi-core infrastructure and advanced memory architecture for unparalleled scalability of capacity, design turnaround time, and throughput.
* Robust design exploration and automated floorplan synthesis and ranking solution.
* Embedded signoff-qualified variation analysis and optimization across design flow.
* Integrated diagnostic tools for rapid global timing, clock and power analysis/debug

Here’s a list of benefits that it provides designers:
* Significantly reduces design time, schedule and development risk.
* Increased productivity through automation; superior quality of results.
* Configurable and extensible platform that ensures maximum utilization and ROI -- upgrades proven design flow and amplifies existing expertise.
* Interoperability across package, logic, custom IC design, and manufacturability.

Harnessing power of multicore computing
According to Cadence, it provides complete support for parallel processing across the design flow. Does this mean that designers can fully harness the power of multicore computing? It would also mean that today's EDA tools capable enough to meet the multi-core challenge.

Deokar added: "Yes, the end-to-end parallel processing flow is supported across the entire design flow and consequently. Also, designers can fully harness the power of multicore computing. Today's designers commonly have dual CPU or even quad CPU machines on their desktop. The Encounter Digital Implementation System allows the designers to leverage their multi-CPU hardware and gain significant TAT improvements on the design cycle time and overall development schedule."

The Encounter end-to-end multi-CPU backplane delivers ultra-scale performance gains up to 16X in key areas such as routing and timing closure. All steps of the design flow are multi-CPU enabled. For instance, on a production design, when the Encounter is run on four CPUs, the user can get a 3.2X performance boost across the entire, end-to-end design flow.

Encounter deployed by over 15 customers?
Designers are said to be reporting dramatically improved design time, design closure, and faster time-to-market for advanced digital and mixed-signal devices. By what factors, and against which other tool(s) has Encounter been rated?

Deokar said that the Encounter Digital Implementation System has been developed in close collaboration with over 15 customer partners who have extensively used, validated and now, deployed it.

"Customers are already seeing overall design cycles significantly shorted by 25-30 percent, which translates to multiple weeks or even months. These significant improvements are against competitive tool flows in their current methodology," he added.

Encounter is also said to be offering new technologies for silicon virtual prototyping, die-size exploration and RTL and physical synthesis, providing improved predictability and optimization in early stages of the design flow.

Regarding this aspect, he pointed out that large scale design complexities (increased functionality, predictability, productivity, etc.,) pose some of the biggest challenges. Designs are getting huge at 100M+ gates, 100+ macros in the design, putting significant requirements on design tools, particularly, floorplanning of these macros, and the whole design becomes a huge challenge.

"The new Silicon Virtual Prototyping capabilities of Automated Floorplan Synthesis and Die Size Exploration help out exactly on that front. These can quickly provide floorplanning for that large 100M+ gates, 100+ macro design.

"And not just one floorplan, but designers can provide multiple criteria (say, along the lines of timing or power or area or congestion) and you will get multiple floorplans with their rankings…-- all this in a matter of minutes! Essentially, you could finish your breakfast or lunch (depending upon how fast you eat!) and be back to have multiple floorplans that you can then pick and choose from, and then proceed to implementation."

Addressing new problems at 45nm/40nm/32nm
Obviously, targeted at 45nm/40nm/32nm, etc., how can or how does Encounter anticipate and address the majority of the new problems associated with these geometries across the entire flow?

Deokar noted that its main customers include semiconductor companies working on 45nm and 32nm designs, with aggressive design specifications including 100 million or more instances, 1,000-plus macros, operating speeds exceeding 1GHz, ultra-low power budgets, and large amounts of mixed-signal content.

"The challenges facing these designs comprise of an increasing demand for design tool performance/capacity and design features for challenging ultra-large scale designs in the areas of low power, mixed signal, advanced node and signoff analysis. In addition, small market windows and product life-cycles and the cost pressures further exacerbate the situation," he noted.

The Encounter Digital Implementation System’s core design closure capabilities, plus the new advanced node technologies, including litho-, CMP-, thermal, and statistical-aware optimization provide comprehensive manufacturing- and variation-aware implementation, and an end-to-end multi-core infrastructure for fast, predictable design closure even on the most challenging designs.

Reducing memory footprints
It will be interesting to learn about the kind of work that has gone into reducing the memory footprint of the most memory-retentive applications.

Deokar said that an innovative memory architecture is at the core of the Encounter System that enables capacity and performance gains of 30-40 percent for full flat and hierarchical designs, even if you are running on a single-CPU machine.

Cadence's R&D team has developed an advanced memory defragmentation algorithm that allows the applications to be extremely memory-frugal …and that memory-efficiency enables designers to handle their biggest 100M+ instance designs.

Parallels with Synopsys' Galaxy Custom Designer?
There seem to be parallels with Synopsys' Galaxy Custom Designer for AMS. Also, there could be some chance of Cadence's Virtuoso and Encounter coming together in future.

According to Deokar, Synopsys’ Custom Designer for AMS is its entry into the full-custom/analog design marketplace, where the Cadence Virtuoso platform is a strong incumbent.

He said: "The biggest challenge for mixed signal designers is the efforts/resources involved in taking design data from the full-custom/analog tools to the digital implementation tools, and back and forth…in never-ending iterations.

"Now, with the Encounter Digital Implementation System, designers get the seamless full-custom/analog and digital design implementation interoperability…with unified constraints handling, mixed-signal floorplanning and ECO. It executes off a common design database (OpenAccess), enabling edits made in one design environment (e.g. Virtuoso) to be easily seen in the other design environment (e.g. Encounter). It also enables the design team to easily transfer the design data, to determine the optimal floorplan based on analog and digital constraints."

For example, the analog design team moves pins on the analog block, when the design is opened in Encounter, the modified pin locations are easily seen and the digital design team can execute a pin optimization to re-align the pins at the top-level.

In addition, the user can enter routing constraints in either Encounter or Virtuoso, and implement mixed signal routing in either environment. Top-level routing constraints could be defined within Virtuoso, then the top-level routing completed using the mixed signal routing functionality within Encounter.

Customers are already seeing their overall design schedules significantly reduced, added Deokar.

Postscript: Well, as expected, the EDA industry has taken a hit again. As per the EDA Consortium (EDAC) Market Statistics Service (MSS), the EDA industry revenue for Q3 2008 declined 10.9 percent to $1,258.6 million compared to $1,412.1 million in Q3 2007. The four-quarter moving average declined 2.8 percent.

Now, does Cadence's Encounter have the ability to turn around the EDA industry's fortunes? I don't think so! Much more needs to be done by Cadence and all of the other EDA companies!

D-day's here for TD-SCDMA! Take a bow!!

It is indeed a major triumph for TD-SCDMA! After years of waiting, this 3G technology has finally been awarded a 3G license -- in the form of a license from the MIIT (Ministry of Industry and Information Technology), China, to China Mobile -- China's biggest mobile phone operator.

I recall late 1999, when a good friend, Shih ying Tan, of Siemens, first apprised me about this particular technology, and I was able to discuss it in-depth with first, Siemens, while at Global Sources, in 2000, and later, with Dr. Li Shi-he, while at Wireless Week, the next year. Dr. Li is apprised as the father of TD in China! Sorry, I could not locate that link on Wireless Week.

I also spoke with Marco Principato at Siemens, while at Wireless Week, in 2001 www.wirelessweek.com/td-scdma-supporters-tout-3g-alternative.aspx). The link will take you to that interview. So, it's been a personal delight for me that this technology has finally arrived!

I also traveled to Munich, Germany in August 2001, to meet Klaus Maler, who was then general manager, TD-SCDMA, for Siemens Information and Mobile Communications. I've also mentioned earlier that it was way, way back in September-October 2002, when the Chinese government allocated 155MHz of spectrum to TD-SCDMA!

What you should appreciate and be amazed about is the tremendous foresight of the Chinese government! Way back, it had decided to go ahead with TD-SCDMA! Way back, it allocated spectrum for this 3G technology! And well, most China followers, including yours truly, were aware that China Mobile would probably get the 3G license!

Knowing China reasonably well, China Mobile will surely leave no stones unturned in making TD-SCDMA its top priority, and developing it extremely well. Also, I am sure, China would be looking to sell this technology to other countries.

If you compare this with India, the differences are stark! TD-SCDMA is hardly talked about, and most dismiss it as a 'China' technology! Two, we have wonderfully entangled ourselves in the famous 'spectrum tangle' for years. So, allocating separate frequency for any technology is absolutely unheard of! Three, developing our own technology -- far from it!

Anyhow, I am sure the Indian regulators will think their way through, as they've always done, and proper 3G would be a reality soon.

Coming back to China, the MIIT needs to be lauded for its great work and backing for TD-SCDMA! The technology itself has been close to being written off on so many instances, only to come back strongly! And how!!

I am certain that in the forthcoming telecom shows, such as those organized by the ITU, as well as CommunicAsia, we will get to see more of TD-SCDMA. More press coverage will be surely happening.

The D-day has arrived. Take a bow, TD-SCDMA!

MelZoo joins the search engine pack!

Interesting! Melzoo is the latest search engine on the block!

I tried various searches on this site, starting by typing my name ;) ! Well, the first result was of this very blog... and another surprise -- the results appear on a split page! The first (or left) part of the page lists the results, while the second (or right) part of the page opened my blog's page!

When I moved the mouse over to the second search result -- my Newsvine page -- the page on the right changed automatically -- to my Newsvine index page. And then on to the next result -- my page on BlogCatalog!

Okay, so the search lists all results on one side, and previews the page for each result -- as you move the mouse over -- on the other side.

One of the search results led me to an EDN Global Roundtable of early 2004! This page, especially, brought back several memories! I'd participated in this roundtable sometime in Q3 of 2003, and it was published early January of 2004. I've lost track of some of those participants, but it was good to see this roundtable all over again!

Another search result led me to an EDN Global Report 2, which had been done before I left for Hong Kong in Q3-05.

Some pages were unable to show the preview, though my guess is, either the Internet was slow or the pages were taking time to download, or, the previews were not yet fixed. Am sure, those would be taken care of!

By the way, I was extremely thrilled to see this blog's name appear on the very first page, when I tried another search using 'semicon blogs'. Also, when I tried searching for TD-SCDMA, the results on the first page displayed, among others, my own article, written for Wireless Week, US, back in 2001.

However, I'm wondering what is the MelZoo team going to do to make this search engine popular among users? Google, like Yahoo, spread by word of mouth. Later, Google added several features (and keeps adding) that greatly enhanced its image! We keep comparing any search engine invariably with Google, don't we?

There have been other search engines like iRazoo, Cuil, etc., but they don't seem to have gained many followers so far! On Alexa, Cuil was ranked 9,596 and iRazoo 21,865. Melzoo does not have a rank yet, so it is a brand new starter!

Also, the names of these popular search engines! The names for the new search engines are a bit difficult to remember, isn't it so? Yahoo and Google, and perhaps, even Alta Vista, Lycos, etc., before them, have been fairly easy to remember. Even the logos, I guess, were more user friendly.

Perhaps, MelZoo would do something different over the next few weeks or months! Since the site is still in beta, except some more goodies to be added. And, even better search results to show up!

After all, any search engine is known for the quality of results it throws up! This means -- showing the interesting and latest, along with the uninteresting, and maybe, equally related to the search. How recent are the updates? How frequently are new articles added on to the search results?

For instance, any online media would check MelZoo to see if the site is picking up all of its news with each passing hour. If MelZoo can cope up with this challenge, it would have done its job admirably. Best of luck to the team!

Seeking jobs in embedded! Can anyone help?

Ever since I have blogged about embedded companies in India, I've received a few messages, regarding jobs in the embedded segment in India. Some others have dropped hints about companies who haven't made my list!

It seems the companies are not hiring, or they've put hiring on freeze. Does it mean that not many projects are going on currently? Or, is there a way for freshers to make a start somewhere? For starters, those who want their companies listed in any top 10 list, are they even trying to help freshers or those looking for better jobs in the embedded space? What is their policy for hiring?

Or, are they too dependent on design services, so much that they do not have enough products to work on or develop! Or, maybe, they don't have many ongoing projects? I have had so many people tell me "India should do product development in semiconductors!" So, is that really happening? Or, is it merely a statement?

I did come across this web site called Dev Seeker, which is said to list jobs in embedded. DevSeeker also has a page that lists some of the embedded companies in India.

I also came across a blog on Monster, which lists several posts from some freshers, as well as some others who have actually asked folks to send in their resumes.

There is another web site from KBS Consultants, which has listed some jobs in the embedded segment. Another site, called GotAChance, also has links to jobs in the embedded space. Another search led me to a site called ITJobs.

By the way, I've no way of knowing whether any of the sites are updated, or, if they are, how frequently are those getting updated with the latest information. Sincerely hope that all of these sites are getting updated frequently!

Whenever I speak with semiconductor professionals, they don't stop raving about India's might in embedded. If that's the case, why are so many talented people not being able to find jobs? Or even worse, how do freshers get to make a start? I am not sure if companies offer freelance work for embedded software engineers. However, it is an option that could be considered.

There are several companies in China and Japan who are seeking fresh and good talent in the embedded space. A Japanese delegation visited India last August for the India-Fukuoka (Japan) IT, Embedded Software and Semiconductor Business Workshop 2008. Some of companies are:

* Daichi Institution Industry Co. Ltd
* DISCO (Dai Ichi Seitosho Co. Ltd) Corp.
* Inoueki Co. Ltd
* JETRO (Japan External Trade Organization)
* Kyushu Economic Research Center
* CLAIR (The Japan Council of Local Authorities for International Relations), Singapore

Prior to that, last May, the India Semiconductor Association (ISA) and the UK Trade & Investment and Science & Innovation Network launched a study titled "Scope for collaboration between India and the UK in semiconductor driven industry 2008.

I am also aware that China and Taiwan require lot of talent in embedded software and systems. They can surely make use of the talent available in India.

I am sure that all of these folks would be able to help out at least some of those looking to make a career in embedded systems and software. Otherwise, what's the end result of making such trips to India and talking about India's talent in embedded! Freshers need to make a start somewhere, so please help as many as possible.

To all of those freshers starting out to make a career, try and get the relevant experience, and the money will follow. Do not pursue it the other way round.

This is a request to the global embedded systems and software fraternity -- there are quite a lot of talented and fresh engineers in India in the embedded systems and software segment, who are also seeking jobs. Give them, or at least, some of them, a chance! Can you kindly help them?

Top 10 embedded companies in India

Right then! This topic should be of interest to several folks in India as well as overseas! Especially, those who are looking to tap the renowned Indian talent in embedded systems and software.

It is very well known that all the leading MNCs are present in India, and well, do great work in embedded systems and software. Definitely, any top 10 list of such companies would include the likes of:

* Intel
* Texas Instruments
* Freescale
* Philips
* Samsung
* LG Electronics
* And some of the other leading multinational companies.

However, my exercise is NOT to look for the leading MNCs in this domain, but to find out who are the leading Indian companies 'working' in the embedded systems and software space.

Some immediate ones that would spring to mind could be the likes of Ittiam, Sasken, Mistral, KPIT, Symphony, Mphasis, eInfochips, Infosys, TCS, HCL Technologies, Wipro, etc., perhaps.

There are so many others, including Yindusoft, Dexcel Designs, Ample Communications. Ibex, EmLabs, eSpark Infotech, i Micro System, Adamya Computing, etc.

However, I am not very sure how all of these companies are currently performing, nor is it possible for me to find out in a short time. Nevertheless, having been in close touch with some of these companies, it is quite possible that the downturn could be hitting some of the smaller companies, and maybe, even the bigger ones. Well, it is a downturn after all, and spends are not that high!

It is widely hoped that the very strong Indian embedded industry will overcome these problems and shine brightly in the new year.

In my list of the leading Indian companies in the embedded space, I am clubbing some of the larger companies, which are also into other activities, such as IT and outsourcing services.

In no particular order, my top 10 companies in the embedded systems and software space in India would be:

1. Tata Elxsi/Sasken
2. Ittiam Systems
3. Infosys/TCS
4. HCL Technologies/Wipro
5. KPIT Cummins Infosystems
5. Mphasis/BFL
6. Symphony
7. Sonata Software
8. Mistral/eInfochips
9. Dexcel Designs
10. Robosoft/Yindusoft

Yes, do feel free to disagree, friends! :) Again, I know this may not be a perfect list!

There are several companies in the embedded space within India who have been really doing outstanding work. I will try my best to contact as many of these companies and find out what these folks are presently working on!

I will also TRY and revise this list, IF I am able to round up as many companies, and am able to rank them, based on the solidity of their current projects, and NOT on the revenue gained in 2008. Again, I agree, this criteria may not appeal to all, but then it is my list :)

Therefore, feel free to disagree, folks... and please add several names of these great Indian companies in the embedded systems and software space, along with their email IDs, so I can easily touch base with them!

PS: One reader has mentioned about whether these companies have great products! Well, would be great if the companies could come up and say how great their products are!!

Thanks for the feedback, Mr. Nair, and good to have new names... :)

Another reader had mentioned ProcSys! Many thanks for those names, friends!

Reviewing global/Indian semicon industry in 2008 -- top posts

Greetings, dear readers and friends, in the new year. May you all have all the success and prosperity in 2009!

An eventful year in semiconductors has passed by us. For me, personally, it has been a tremendous 2008, ending with Electronics Weekly of UK selecting my blog (Pradeep Chakraborty's Blog) as the world's best in the Electronic Hardware category.

Lot of people have asked me since, how it feels to be a world champion! Well, I do feel elated! However, one point, more of the congratulatory notes have come from overseas, than from India. Perhaps, it is an apt indicator of how semiconductors is perceived in India -- though, I may be wrong.

Friends have also asked me how I've managed to blog on such a difficult subject sitting in India. Simply put: It has not been easy!

First, I'm just a simple person, and not some brand name. Second, my blog does not represent any large, well known media house, or a big brand semiconductor magazine. Hence, maintaining a semicon blog, with the help of contacts from all over the world has been tough, at times. Why, some folks, with whom I wished to speak with, never even responded to my emails and requests. Quite understandable!

Third, I've only managed to blog, when I have the time, unlike many other great bloggers who post regularly (or daily)! Fourth, there have been several instances, where my location has been my weak point. I was unable to blog on several instances simply because I had no way of reaching people whom I wished to speak with, while sitting in India. And, as I said, I did get cold snubs on several instances! :) As a result, I could not present my views at specific instances, even though I dearly wanted to!

However, the unconditional and loving support and encouragement of my family, friends, well wishers, industry leaders and loyal readers such as you have helped overcome all of these deficiencies. It is only because of these people that I've managed to come this far! I hope each one of you continues to have faith in me. I shall try my best to provide you with the best information (hopefully) the global semiconductor industry has to offer.

To start off the new year, may I present, what I feel, are the top blog posts on semiconductors during 2008, as a review for the past year.

Being indisposed at the start of 2008, I only managed to pick up speed from April onward. As the year progressed, the Indian fab story with SemIndia started worsening, before finally disappearing, even as fabless India held on sttong, as did the fortunes of the global semiconductor industry, which incidentally, did look quite good till September last year.

I have arranged the blog posts, from January to December 2008, so they will present a better picture of how 2008 behaved! These posts are set in no particular order or preference, otherwise. Some of you may have your own favorites, so kindly let me know, in case those haven't made the list.

JAN 2008
Power awareness critical for chip designers
LabVIEW 8.5 delivers power of multicore processors

MAR 2008
NXP India achieves RF CMOS in single chip
VLSI as a career in India
Using 'semicon' simulation for drug discovery

APR 2008
New camps promise exciting times ahead in memory market
Indian design services to hit $10.96bn by 2010
Staying ahead of clock a habit at Magma!

MAY 2008
Dubai -- an emerging silicon oasis
Developers, go parallel, or perish, says Intel
Think AND not OR; Altera first @ 40nm FPGAs
Top 10 global semicon predictions -- where are we today
Semicon to grow 12pc in 2008
India's growing might in global semicon

JUN 2008
10-point program for Karnataka semicon policy
Has the Indian silicon wafer fab story gone astray?
Semicon half year over, what next now?
EDA as DNA of growth

JUL 2008
Semicon is no longer business as usual!
Cadence C-to-Silicon Compiler eliminates barriers to HLS adoption
Practical to take solar/PV route: Dr. Atre, Applied

AUG 2008
What India brings to the table for semicon world! And, for Japan
NAND update: Market likely to recover in H2-09
E Ink on every smart surface!
RVCE unveils Garuda super fuel-efficient car
Indian fab policy gets 12 proposals; solar dominates

SEP 2008
90pc fab investments for 300mm capacity: SEMI
Synopsys' Dr Chi-Foon Chan on India, low power design and solar
Magma's YieldManager could make solar 'rock'!
Motion sensors driving MEMS growt
BV Naidu quits SemIndia; what now of Indian fab story?

OCT 2008
Top 20 global solar photovoltaic companies
IDF Taiwan: Father of the Atom an Indian!
TI Beagle Board for Indian open source developers and hobbyists
Cadence's Virtuoso vs. Synopsys' Galaxy Custom Designer!
Synopsys' Galaxy Custom Designer tackles analog mixed signal (AMS) challenges
Solar, semi rocking in India; global semi recovery in 2010?
No fabs? So?? Fabless India shines brightly!!

NOV 2008
AMD's roadmap 2009 provides lots of answers... now, to deliver!
Embedded computing -- 15mn devices not so far away!
FPGAs have adopted Moore's Law more closely!

DEC 2008
My blog is the world's best!
Semicon outlook 2009: Global market could be down 7pc or more
Altera on FPGAs outlook for 2009
Solar sunburn likely in 2009? India, are you listening
Outlook for solar photovoltaics in 2009!

I found it difficult to select the Top 10 posts. If any one of you can draw up such a list, it'd be great!

Outlook for solar photovoltaics in 2009!

Friends and dear readers, this is my last blog post for 2008! Indeed, what a year this has been!!

Let me bid this year goodbye with a general outlook on the global solar photovoltaics industry for 2009.

iSuppli had recently put out a report on solar eclipse coming in 2009! I had blogged about the possible solar sunburn ahead, as well, earlier last week!

Another point that has interested me is: what happens to the top 20 global solar photovoltaic companies, based on iSuppli's analysis! This blog post has perhaps been the most popular in recent times.

I was very lucky to re-associate with Dr. Henning Wicht, Senior Director, Principal Analyst, iSuppli Deutschland GmbH, in Munich, Germany, for this discussion, thanks to the efforts of Jon Cassell and Debra Jaramilla!

How bad is solar?
The first and the most obvious question: how bad is the global solar market right now and why?

According to iSuppli, bringing an end to eight consecutive years of growth, global revenue for photovoltaic (PV), panels is likely to plunge by nearly 20 percent in 2009, as a massive oversupply causes prices to drop!

Worldwide revenue from shipments of panels will decline to $12.9 billion in 2009, down 19.1 percent from $15.9 billion in 2008. A drop of this magnitude has not occurred in the last 10 years and likely has not happened in the entire history of the solar industry.

Dr. Henning Wicht says that the upstream part of the solar business (cell, module, etc.) will suffer from price decline due to strong oversupply. The downstream side will benefit (installation, end-user, investor, etc.) by lower system prices.

Therefore, what can the solar players do to get over this coming bad phase in 2009? Well, three things: improve the cost structure, improve the sales side, and diversify downstream… These points hold strong for all fully integrated and non-integrated solar panel suppliers as well. By the way, fully integrated solar panel suppliers are likely to suffer less severe losses than non-integrated competitors.

There must be some way around to to bring about some balance within the current imbalance in the demand and supply situation. While Dr. Wicht agrees this is a difficult one to answer this early, he adds that supply and demand are diverging heavily. "With the current trajectories even in 2012, 100 percent more modules are produced than installed," he says. I promise to discuss this question again with the good Dr. in another six months time.

Word of wisdom
There are various support programs in place, and it is important to know whether they will continue to remain beneficial, both to support markets to become independent sustainable and to develop the regional industry.

Dr. Wicht believes the support programs are still required and beneficial. "If China, India, Mexico and other sunny regions would start to support solar installations, that could change the picture drastically," he notes.

A note of warning for new entrants in the solar photovoltaic space! Be aware that this warning has been earlier highlighted in the global semiconductor outlook for 2009! In tune with what the various analysts have maintained earlier, iSuppli also forsees newcomers in the solar photovoltaic line having problems in getting the required credit for their projects.

What next for Europe, emerging regions?
According to iSuppli, the short-term boost in demand from Spain and Germany has kept the installation companies busy, and solar orders and module prices high. But this boom is over. So, what's next for European players?

According to Dr. Wicht, Germany and Spain should continue their leading role as solar installation regions, even after the boom. France, Italy and Czech Republic are attractive, but still much smaller markets, he maintains.

iSuppli has also mentioned that the race to larger manufacturing scale comes to an end when the production is not sold anymore! In that case, what's the case for the emerging nations, like China and India? Aren't there buyers in such places?

Dr. Wicht says: "Demand in the traditional solar markets is not elastic enough to absorb all of the solar production. Potential new markets, for example, China and India, do not yet have installation capacities and administration to significantly change the global solar demand short term."

iSuppli also feels that the newer Chinese and Taiwanese suppliers will be hit particularly hard during 2009. The reason being, many suppliers have expanded their production capacities heavily without securing equally the sales/downstream part.

Global top 20 rankings to change?
Now to the most interesting part! Most of you have read about the top 20 global solar photovoltaic suppliers. Following the iSuppli warning of a 'solar eclipse' in 2009, there is every likelihood that there will be changes in that table!

Dr. Wicht adds, "However, the top 10 companies are typically better placed than the competition regarding their cost structures, downstream integration and vertical integration."

Obama's solar plans!
Now on to yet other interesting point! The US President-elect, Barack Obama's, New Energy for America plan could well have a significant impact on the US solar industry.

The plan's provisions include:

• A federal renewable portfolio standard (RPS) that requires 10 percent of electricity consumed in the US to come from renewable sources by 2012.
• A $150 billion investment over 10 years in research, technology demonstration and commercial deployment of clean energy technology.
• Extension of production tax credits for five years to encourage renewable energy production.
• A cap-and-trade system of carbon credits to provide an incentive for businesses to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Dr. Wicht says: "We all know that Obama is in favor of renewable energy. However, he will not change a 160 percent oversupply of solar panels in 2009."

Bumpy ride to grid parity?
On another note, and a pretty favorite one: Is it going to be a "bumpy road" to grid parity? How will the subsidies be kept going?

Dr. Wicht notes: "Subsidies will continue. It will always be a bumby road because the ramping cycles differ heavily among silicon, cells, modules and the installation capacity. Please remember that the installation business will now benefit from low module prices. It will recover some of the margins it has lost in the last years due to high module prices."

Also, up to when will polysilicon constraints last? iSuppli had earlier indicated PV strategy changes. According to Dr. Wicht, the polysilicon prices are coming down already. "Our indication from October 2008 seems to be fairly good," he says.

Lastly, will iSuppli be still sticking by solar, semicon investments being equal by 2010?

Dr. Wicht says: "Please let me cite again our interview in October: The investments for solar production raising up to several hundreds of Mio USD, up to 1 Bio $ per production site. That is coming close to a semiconductor fab. The total capex of semiconductor is still 10 times larger than PV. However, PV is rising much faster."

That will be all for this year, folks!

Look forward to sharing much more captivating moments in semiconductors, electronics, solar photovoltaics, telecom, etc., in 2009!

Wishing all of you a very happy, prosperous and successful 2009. Be safe and look after yourself! See you next year!! :)

Altera on FPGAs outlook for 2009

Hardly any segment of the global semiconductor industry has escaped the economic financial crisis! Nevertheless, as the year draws to a close, several segments are planning strategies for tackling what could well be a difficult 2009! FPGAs are no exception!

Jennifer Lo, Senior Marketing Manager, Altera Asia Pacific, agrees. Highlighting the impact, as per reports in the media, the economical environment we are getting into is extremely challenging. Recently, Gartner lowered its 2009 semiconductor forecast to 'down 16 percent' as compared to 2008.

Altera placed strongly
Lo says that compared to the other semiconductor companies, many of whom are taking very drastic measures in cutting down costs and preserving capital, Altera is in a very strong position, both financially and product-wise.

Financially, Altera is said to have taken steps to focus on cost reductions and simplification internally, a few years ago. The company is seeing great results from those efforts. "You may check our financial data and find that we are essentially debt-free and have very healthy balance sheet. We continue to be profitable even under the very challenging environment we are in," Lo contends.

Product-wise, Altera announced a few days ago that it is shipping the industry’s 40nm product, considered a key milestone. "We are very excited about it with this new product family, Stratix IV, which offers the industry’s largest density, highest performance, highest system bandwidth and lowest power, targeting customers in a variety of markets, including communications, broadcast, test, medical and military," she says.

Going forward in 2009, Altera will continue to rollout the rest of the members in the Stratix IV product family. It will also continue to execute new product strategies in the plan with full confidence.

Tackling demand weakness in FPGAs
There have been whispers regarding demand weakness in the FPGA industry. On the contrary, Lo adds that lower power, lower cost and smaller space are still common needs for portable applications for 2009. These needs may drive PLD vendors to focus on architecture and process to address power and cost. Also, work on package to develop a smaller device. Altera's goal is to still focus on these common needs.

The Altera MAX II Z already offers the lowest dynamic power and comparable static power in industry already. The company may focus more on package size on 2009.

Although leading-edge FPGAs are scaling to 40nm and beyond, have the tools caught up with these new and complex processes? She says that lowering power consumption and improving customer productivity have been the focus of Altera's product strategies for the past few years.

Lo adds: "Lowering power consumption means lowering costs for customers, not only in the BOM cost (reducing heatsink or cooling requirement), but also the ongoing operating cost (fans, air-conditioning costs,…etc). At this day and age of ever increasing fuel and electricity costs, this is gaining significance in customers' selection consideration. Seeing such a need, reducing device power consumption has been a major element in the company's product planning and execution."

Altera's Max II Z product in the low-cost CPLD line offers the lowest dynamic power and static power in the industry that is catered for the portable applications. On the high end of the spectrum, with Stratix IV GX, for example, with the advanced 40nm process node, Altera utilizes the 'Strained Silicon' technology, lower core voltage of 0.9V, triple gate oxide, as well as low-K inter-metal dielectric material low power transceiver designs.

"In terms of design, we put in extra effort in lowering the overall power consumption in the transceivers as well as optimized DDR memory interfaces," she notes.

Coupled with programmable power technology, which allows customers to use high performance (hence, high power consumption) circuitry for design along the critical path, while either using low-power circuit on other parts of the design or turning the logic blocks completely off while not in use, all process and design innovations work together toward one common goal of lowering the overall power consumption in the customer design.

Lo says: "In customer productivity improvement, we’ve invested in the feature sets in our design software, Quartus II, to enable team-based designs, incremental compilation, as well as faster compilation time compared to the other competing software. We also have a wide suite of IPs in a multitude of applications and technologies, such as our Nios embedded processors, the many memory interfaces and peripherals. Combining all of those with our SOPCBuilder tool also enables customers to integrate system designs with very much reduced time and effort."

There have also been some talks lately about FPGA design starts being quite flat over the last couple of years.

Altera sees a lot of new market applications for FPGAs, apart from the traditional communications market. Out of the many market segments that it participates in, the company feels that communications, military and industrial segments will be in better situation than others in the next couple of years. Needless to say, Altera will continue to focus on these segments.

Tackling complexity
Tackling complexity is a major focus area for projecting FPGAs as a growth segment for 2009.

Lo says: that as with other previous downturns, the industry may go through its reformation, which may inevitably involve some weaker companies to either go out of business due to deteriorating business environment or get acquired by stronger companies. Altera is very confident that programmable logic, with its highly flexibility, versatile application, will have a good market position in 2009.

The Hardcopy ASIC is said to have been Altera's major differentiator from the other PLD/FPGA vendors.

"We are the only company having both an FPGA vehicle to enable fast time-to-market and simultaneously possessing the seamless migration platform to low-cost production support using Hardcopy ASIC. With the industry trend of fewer and fewer ASIC starts due to the high NRE costs and high justifying volume, there will also be less investment in the ASSP front given the contracting demand. We see Hardcopy as a major competitive edge that will us bring to a different rank in the industry," she notes.

Indeed, it is good to see companies thinking very hard about tackling a difficult 2009! There's lot of fight left, and it's not that semiconductor companies haven't faced downturns earlier. Keep the faith and allow these folks to come up tops again!

Why solar/PV is good for India? An ISA perspective!

Recently, the India Semiconductor Association (ISA) held an educative briefing session on the potential of the solar PV market in India, which was conducted by Rajiv Jain, Director, Government Relations, ISA.

This meeting was held well before iSuppli issued a warning that there could be global solar sunburn in 2009! I am sincerely hoping that most of the points mentioned by ISA's Jain still hold good in the coming year, and that India really does well and takes off in solar photovoltaics.

The ISA's vision: To help make India an attractive global destination for PV manufacturing and a world leader in solar energy.

Starting with the basics of photovoltaics, he said that it is a package of solar cells used to convert energy from sun to electricity. In simpler words, photons from sunlight knock electrons into higher state of energy, thus creating electricity. The electricity can be used to power equipment or recharge a battery. A typical PV system mainly consists of a PV module, battery, inverter, controller and junction box.

Focusing on the technological landscape, he touched upon the two key technologies for solar: crystalline and thin film.

Crystalline silicon is said to be the most mature Si wafer technology, with the largest market share. Though, high on cost, it has a typical efficieny of 14-18 percent. Crystalline silicon is said to suitable for rooftop applications.

Thin film is nothing but thin layers of photosensitive materials on glass. It is currently on high growth due to silicon shortage, and very low on cost due to low material consumption. The efficiency is about 6.5-8 percent.

A third technology, nanotechnology, is the future technology for cost reduction. It is more in the R&D space as of now.

Present scenario for solar
So what's the present scenario? In 2007, of $71 billion invested in new renewable energy (RE) capacity globally, 30 percent was in solar PV. It is the fastest growing area in the energy sector, with a CAGR of 47 percent over the last five years.

Grid-connected solar PV has been high growth market segment in 2007 (50 percent increase). Also, 86 percent of the PV installations are largely in four countries, with Germany at 47 percent being the outright leader.

Market drivers are said to be attractive feed-in tariffs, national PV market development and acceptance, RE obligations through solar PV, access to cheaper mode of finance, manufacturing incentives as well as strong R&D.

Why solar for India
I have addressed this in an earlier blog post. Here's what Jain had to say, and it is mostly in line with the earlier discussions.

First, India has among the highest solar irradiance globally. It also has the best quality reserves of silica in Orissa and Andhra Pradesh. India has also established itself low cost producer and assembler of solar PV cells and modules.

The major challenges include attaining scale and integration for cost reduction, and, R&D for development of the industry.

Solar insolation in India
To start with, the daily average solar energy incident varies from 4-7kWh per m2. Next, we have multiple sites with solar irradiation >2000 hours per year. In contrast, Germany has 900-1,200 hours per year. Further, most parts of India have 300-300 sunny days in a year translating into a potential of 600GW. Also, potential in some states like Rajasthan is 35-40 MW per m2.

It is well known that the Indian semiconductor policy of 2007 has triggered off the now well publicized efforts in solar initiatives. The government of India has received 16 applications with investments envisaged at app Rs. 1,55,000 crores.

The investments in solar PV manufacturing exceed Rs 1,25,000 crores. Generation based incentives (GBI) are going to be key.

Potential market segments in India
There are quite a few, actually. In rural electrification, the government of India's target is to achieve 'Electricity for all by 2012'. About 18,000 remote villages will likely be electrified through RE. About ~25 percent of the remote villages, i.e., 4,500 villages, form a very viable market.

Next comes telecom back-up power! PV is a cost effective alternative to diesel generators (DG) for back up power for shorter duration, as DG based systems suffer from several disadvantages.

Another key market could be grid connected solar PV based generation. Current tariffs do not provide attractive IRR to developers. Decreasing system prices are however, likely to improve the economics.

Finally, roof based BIPV is said to be an alternative to reduce the cost of power procured by commercial buildings.

ISA's recommendations
The ISA has also made salient recommendations via its report on the industry. These include areas such as manufacturing: with an aim to encourage companies investing in 'Scale and integration', provision of capital subsidy to larger number of units, availability of funds at a cheaper rate, and an emphasis on R&D.

Also, the ISA has recommended that GBI be given for a tenure of 20 years, with the present period being 10 years. Further, it has suggested an accelerated depreciation along with the GBI scheme, and the availability of GBI for an unlimited capacity for a period of five years. The ISA has recommended an enactment of the RE Law requiring utilities to progressively increase power purchase from RE.

On its part, the ISA has been working with the government of India and various state governments as well. It has a sound rapport with concerned ministries - MNRE, DIT and NMCC.

The ISA has also assisted in the technical evaluation of solar PV proposals received in Fab City, Hyderabad. It has also drafted a semiconductor policy for the government of Karnataka, which should be out early next year, hopefully. The ISA is also working with several other state governments to promote the industry in their states.

The second ISA Solar PV Conclave is scheduled for November 2009 at Hyderabad.

Very good intentions, all of these! Now, for the Indian industry and the government to deliver, and walk hand in hand!!

Rapidly growing local market bring new opportunities for EDA in India

Those following the EDA industry are well aware that its been an industry in some trouble right through this year.

If you visited EDA Consortium's web site, this becomes clear. In Q1-08, the global EDA industry revenue for Q1 2008 declined 1.2 percent to $1,350.7 million compared to $1,366.8 million in Q1 2007.

Later, the EDA industry revenue for Q2 2008 declined 3.7 percent to $1357.4 million compared to $1408.8 million in Q2 2007, as reported by the EDA Consortium.

I am still waiting to see how the Q3 results shape up. My guess is, it would be even lower than Q2, unless there are a few surprises!

The EDA market in India, as per the ISA F&S Report 2005, was US$110m. The latest figures are not yet available, though I would believe the Indian EDA industry is likely to do better than the global industry, unless, there have been some slowdown effects here as well.

I had an interesting discussion with Jaswinder Ahuja, Corporate Vice President and Managing Director, Cadence Design Systems (I) Pvt. Ltd and Chairman, India Semiconductor Association (ISA), on the (dipping?) fortunes of the EDA industry lately.

According to Ahuja, 2008 has been a challenging year. The global financial crisis has impacted several industries and the EDA industry was no exception. Due to the overall downturn in the economy, companies are being more cautious and are delaying purchase decisions, a move that is impacting the overall EDA industry.

Coming to the drivers for EDA in India this year, there are a few key ones! First, the design centres have gained expertise and are now doing cutting-edge designs out of India. They have moved up the value chain from doing block-level design to increasingly owning up end-to-end design and design starts.

Second, several Indian design services companies have made significant acquisitions, showing that their businesses have not just taken root, but also flourished. MindTree Consulting’s acquisition of TES PV and Wipro’s acquisition of Oki's wireless chip design arm are cases in point, added Ahuja.

He said: "The Indian EDA industry has been growing and we will see more technology adoptions and proliferations in India Design Centers. Also, the rapidly growing local market is unfolding new opportunities."

EDA outlook 2009
Going forward, market pressures and design complexities are just some of the issues design teams face today. Cadence's customers, for instance, would like to plan in the context of IP selection, run analysis around power, performance and cost perspectives. Design predictability will be a priority, said Ahuja.

The key focus areas for the EDA industry will be new design for manufacturing technologies as designs move to advanced nodes; verification and verification IPs and multicore processing support for EDA flows as a result of increased integration.

Also, SaaS is likely to gain traction as companies are compelled to consider flexible engagement models to access state-of-the art design environments that help design teams reduce risk and cost, yet increase time-to-productivity.

Are there any opportunities for EDA folks in solar? Ahuja disclosed that in a recent poll by ISA, to the question 'Solar PV has potential in India', almost 90 percent of respondents replied Agree or Strongly Agree.

With the worldwide focus on alternative energy systems, India has witnessed several companies announcing investments in PV segment. This is good news for the Indian semiconductor ecosystem.

Cadence has a broad portfolio of technologies that addresses the needs of different players in the ecosystem.

Low power initiatives
Low power has always been a key focus area in semiconductors. According to Ahuja, power efficient design is gaining importance across the design chain and EDA companies will have to look closely at 'green' technologies.

Energy efficiency at the system and application level for wired and wireless products will be one of the focus areas. Emerging technologies that allow applications and systems developers to evaluate how their programs use power both individually and in a dynamic, multi-application model of the end system will help expand the role of EDA into system-level design.

The Power Forward Initiative (PFI), an industry alliance comprising of companies across the semiconductor design chain will work towards a more systematic, integrated approach to low-power design.

Outlook 2009
With the new year about to start in less than a week's time, the impact of the financial crisis will see an increased demand for mid-range product technology as consumers shift spend toward 'essential', rather than 'desirable' electronic products.

As per Ahuja, globally, semiconductor companies are focusing on their core strengths, consolidating and realigning resources. Across sectors, they will look for systems that marry functionality with cost efficiencies.

"Growth for semiconductor companies will come from energy related and low-power technologies that are able to drive market share shifts," he noted.

DRAM makers being offered lifelines via bail out plans!

Browsing the Web these past days has brought me to various stories, mostly discussing the various bail out plans being provided for some leading DRAM makers.

It all started with Germany based Qimonda announcing that it has arranged a Euro 325 million financing package for the ramp up of its innovative Buried Wordline technology.

Yesterday, Hynix, the Korean DRAM maker, received a bail out of $597 million, according to reports on Fabtech. The story also reports that Powerchip Semiconductor, Taiwan's largest DRAM maker, is also seeking new funding.

Then, DigiTimes, a very good technology news Web site from Taiwan, reported yesterday that Taiwan's Ministry of Economic Affairs (MoEA) had reportedly developed an NT$200 billion (US $6.5 billion) bail out plan for Taiwan's hard-hit DRAM makers.

Sitting in India makes it a little difficult to speak with global companies based in Taiwan, Korea and Germany. I sometimes wish I could get some help from reliable sources as to what's the actual ground situation.

Having said that, it is good to see various national governments showing their deep concern about the state of the global DRAM industry and about technologies. And, let us keep all criticisms aside, as to who performed and who didn't! Here's a lesson for India to learn from, as closer home, it has a semiconductor industry really in its infancy!

Right now, the global semiconductor industry is facing a downturn and memory is the hardest hit! Hence, if any measures are being taken to somehow bring DRAM back on track, it should be welcomed.

Qimonda, Hynix, Powerchip, etc., are not small names in the global industry. Poor performance from memory players saw them dropping out of the top 20 global semiconductor players' rankings in 2008.

All the lifelines being provided to these major players now means that these companies need to pull it off, somehow, and extricate themselves from the depths they have fallen into. If they fail, they will perish! And, they all know that!!

I'd be very keen to see the responses of DRAMeXchange and iSuppli on these bail out plans.

Merry X'mas everyone, and hope you all have a great time!

PS: I have iSuppli's feedback!

Speaking on the Taiwan government's bail-out plan as well as Hynix's rescue package from banks, John Lei, Analyst, memory, iSuppli Corp., said: "In general, Hynix's package is much like a short-term relief for their near-term debt, while the Taiwan government aims at the possible consolidation of five suppliers."

"All these packages could bring more uncertainties to the maket, however, based on iSuppli's assumption and forecasts. The industry operation profit margin will hit bottom in Q4-08, but profitability of the industry will not occur until Q4-09," he added.