TAIPEI, TAIWAN: United Microelectronics Corp., at its 2nd Board of Directors meeting of the 11th term held today, approved the establishment of New Business Development Center and its 100 percent owned subsidiary, UMC New Business Investment Corporation. Wen Yang Chen, senior vice president of UMC, will be responsible for New Business Development Center.
UMC established the center to capitalize in high growth and high profit potential industries through timely strategic investment. This will bring new momentum for UMC to further grow and enhance UMC's future asset turnover and profitability.
Capital for UMC's 100 percent owned subsidiary, UMC New Business Investment Corp., is likely to reach NTD 1.5 billion. The company will invest based on the research and evaluation performed by UMC New Business Development Center. In the future, the company will acquire absolute majority of the investees' shares and aggressively participate in the decision-making process and operation of the invested companies.
Recently, major developed and developing countries have listed energy saving and carbon reduction as primary administrative policies to face the challenge of potential energy shortages in the future. Technologies for renewable energy and energy saving will become the focus for future technology development; the growth of related industries is predictable.
The utilization of solar energy has high development potential in the renewable energy sector, while LED is a focus area for energy saving. UMC's knowledge and technologies are highly applicable to the fundamentals of these two industries; hence UMC New Business Development Center will focus on these two areas by utilizing UMC's existing expertise and technologies.
In the short-to-mid term, UMC plans to complete the development of related technologies and establish a preliminary scale of operations. For the long term, as key proficiencies mature and resource integration is complete, the new energy business is expected to become another UMC core business with high competitive advantages.
Wen Yang Chen, UMC senior vice president, is currently responsible for operations and sales of UMC's 8-inch (including 6-inch) fabs. He will also be responsible for the operation of UMC New Business Development Center, which will allow him to leverage his extensive experiences in the semiconductor industry to conduct evaluations on various investments, and the integration, management and utilization of human resources, technology and capital.
Enhancing UMC's profitability and improving shareholders' equity has always been UMC's goal. UMC will continue to strengthen its foundry industry competitiveness, while also adopting an intelligent capital utilization strategy through this new energy business development to increase capital utilization performance, build momentum for long-term growth, and to create even greater benefits for UMC's shareholders.
Showing posts with label Solar. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Solar. Show all posts
Wednesday, August 26, 2009
Wednesday, August 12, 2009
TSMC board's resolutions -- $50mn approved for solar
HSINCHU, TAIWAN: TSMC held a meeting of the Board of Directors, which passed the following resolutions:
1. Appointed L.C. Tu as Vice President of Human Resources; Transferred P.H. Chang to serve as Vice President of Materials Management and Risk Management.
2. Approved capital appropriations of $1,116.8 million to expand 45nm process capacity and install 32nm process capacity.
3. Approved the appropriation of $50 million for possible use in investment in solar energy-related areas.
4. Approved semi-annual financial statements for the first half of 2009. Consolidated revenue for the January-June period was NT$113.712 billion, and net income was NT$25.933 billion.
1. Appointed L.C. Tu as Vice President of Human Resources; Transferred P.H. Chang to serve as Vice President of Materials Management and Risk Management.
2. Approved capital appropriations of $1,116.8 million to expand 45nm process capacity and install 32nm process capacity.
3. Approved the appropriation of $50 million for possible use in investment in solar energy-related areas.
4. Approved semi-annual financial statements for the first half of 2009. Consolidated revenue for the January-June period was NT$113.712 billion, and net income was NT$25.933 billion.
Monday, July 13, 2009
Applied Materials creates path for future technology innovators
SEMICON West 2009, SANTA CLARA, USA: Applied Materials Inc. will emphasize the urgency of preparing students for the high tech jobs of the future during SEMICON West, held in San Francisco this week.
The company will also discuss how a shortage of talent may affect the industry and America’s position as a global technology leader. Additionally, Applied Materials will underscore its strong commitment to the semiconductor industry by highlighting the Applied Materials Foundation Women in Science and Technology Scholarship Program designed to encourage participation by women in science and engineering.
Also being showcased are successful initiatives promoting math, science and semiconductor technology education that are helping develop future technology innovators.
“As a global leader in a fast-changing and competitive marketplace, Applied Materials is constantly innovating and commercializing products to stay ahead of future technology trends,” said Tom St. Dennis, senior vice president and general manager of Applied Materials’ Silicon Systems Group.
“We need the best and brightest talent—the challenge for our educational system is to produce the workforce with the skills and knowledge required by the industry. We believe women can be a source of that talent in greater numbers if they are encouraged early in their education.”
To promote engagement in the industry and raise awareness of technical advances, Applied Materials and the Applied Materials Foundation are supporting several workforce development programs around the world that build bridges between schools and business.
Women in Science and Technology Scholarship Program
To help realize the full potential of the workforce of tomorrow, the Applied Materials Foundation has launched the Women in Science and Technology Scholarship Program to encourage young women to excel in specific technical areas leading to careers in science and engineering.
Grants will be made to selected student organizations at United States-based universities that are committed to developing the next generation of women engineers.
SEMI Foundation’s High Tech U
Applied Materials and the Applied Materials Foundation are long-time supporters of SEMI Foundation’s High Tech U for students and SEMI High Tech U Teacher Edition programs.
In a fun, three-day interactive session, students learn semiconductor manufacturing concepts and microchip logic and get a chance to understand career choices available in math and science-based professions. Students also learn about the design and physics of solar cells.
The teacher program mirrors the student session, with an emphasis on ways educators can implement program activities into their lesson plans. A primary objective of the program is to help teachers learn about math and science-based careers in high tech fields so they can advise students about educational options and career pathways.
“Applied Materials and its Foundation have supported our industry and this program from the very beginning, and in less than a decade this program has helped reach several thousand students and teachers,” said Stan Myers, president and CEO of Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI).
“The goal is to build interest and excitement in young people about math and science careers and help develop the skilled workforce of tomorrow working on next generation technologies.”
Since 2001, 90 High Tech U programs have been delivered reaching approximately 2,400 students directly. An additional 41,000 students have been reached through the 476 teachers who have participated in High Tech U Teacher programs.
Industry Initiatives for Science and Math Education
The goal of Industry Initiatives for Science and Math Education (IISME) is to provide teachers with professional development experiences to gain additional learning and understanding of high tech practices to incorporate into their course curricula to help better prepare a strong, highly skilled workforce in math, science and technological fields.
Applied Materials, a long and active supporter of IISME, has hosted 90 Teacher Fellows since 1994. This summer nine IISME Fellows will work at Applied Materials on a variety of projects and will attend SEMICON West to learn about the latest trends and technologies driving nanomanufacturing technology into the future.
The company will also discuss how a shortage of talent may affect the industry and America’s position as a global technology leader. Additionally, Applied Materials will underscore its strong commitment to the semiconductor industry by highlighting the Applied Materials Foundation Women in Science and Technology Scholarship Program designed to encourage participation by women in science and engineering.
Also being showcased are successful initiatives promoting math, science and semiconductor technology education that are helping develop future technology innovators.
“As a global leader in a fast-changing and competitive marketplace, Applied Materials is constantly innovating and commercializing products to stay ahead of future technology trends,” said Tom St. Dennis, senior vice president and general manager of Applied Materials’ Silicon Systems Group.
“We need the best and brightest talent—the challenge for our educational system is to produce the workforce with the skills and knowledge required by the industry. We believe women can be a source of that talent in greater numbers if they are encouraged early in their education.”
To promote engagement in the industry and raise awareness of technical advances, Applied Materials and the Applied Materials Foundation are supporting several workforce development programs around the world that build bridges between schools and business.
Women in Science and Technology Scholarship Program
To help realize the full potential of the workforce of tomorrow, the Applied Materials Foundation has launched the Women in Science and Technology Scholarship Program to encourage young women to excel in specific technical areas leading to careers in science and engineering.
Grants will be made to selected student organizations at United States-based universities that are committed to developing the next generation of women engineers.
SEMI Foundation’s High Tech U
Applied Materials and the Applied Materials Foundation are long-time supporters of SEMI Foundation’s High Tech U for students and SEMI High Tech U Teacher Edition programs.
In a fun, three-day interactive session, students learn semiconductor manufacturing concepts and microchip logic and get a chance to understand career choices available in math and science-based professions. Students also learn about the design and physics of solar cells.
The teacher program mirrors the student session, with an emphasis on ways educators can implement program activities into their lesson plans. A primary objective of the program is to help teachers learn about math and science-based careers in high tech fields so they can advise students about educational options and career pathways.
“Applied Materials and its Foundation have supported our industry and this program from the very beginning, and in less than a decade this program has helped reach several thousand students and teachers,” said Stan Myers, president and CEO of Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI).
“The goal is to build interest and excitement in young people about math and science careers and help develop the skilled workforce of tomorrow working on next generation technologies.”
Since 2001, 90 High Tech U programs have been delivered reaching approximately 2,400 students directly. An additional 41,000 students have been reached through the 476 teachers who have participated in High Tech U Teacher programs.
Industry Initiatives for Science and Math Education
The goal of Industry Initiatives for Science and Math Education (IISME) is to provide teachers with professional development experiences to gain additional learning and understanding of high tech practices to incorporate into their course curricula to help better prepare a strong, highly skilled workforce in math, science and technological fields.
Applied Materials, a long and active supporter of IISME, has hosted 90 Teacher Fellows since 1994. This summer nine IISME Fellows will work at Applied Materials on a variety of projects and will attend SEMICON West to learn about the latest trends and technologies driving nanomanufacturing technology into the future.
Saturday, July 11, 2009
WCQ expands into Taiwan
SAN FRANCISCO, USA: West Coast Quartz Corp. (WCQ), a privately held and globally-renowned manufacturer of silicon crystal for the semiconductor and solar industries as well as premier fabricator of precision quartz and silicon components for semiconductor wafer process equipment, today announced the establishment of a new wholly-owned subsidiary in Taiwan.
WCQ’s facility in Taiwan is located in Hsinchu and represents a million dollar investment in equipment and facilities customization for fabrication of critical components. This is the first of a multi-million dollar phased investment project.
Heading up the Taiwan operation will be WCQ’s Mark Byrne, a distinguished materials and methods professional in the semiconductor critical components field for many years.
According to WCQ president Paul Maloney, the new facility replicates the first-rate standards of the company’s California operation: “We are responding not only to our global customers’ need for low-cost-geography-manufacturing of high-quality WCQ parts, but also to the Taiwan market’s stated preference for local fabrication. Our vertical integration, especially in silicon crystal, plus our strong Original Part Manufacturer (OPM) experience for all the major OEMs, significantly enhances opportunities for us and for our customers.”
The satellite Taiwan facility includes inter-linked implementation of WCQ’s state-of-the-art management information systems, and will fabricate quartz and silicon critical consumables strictly based on WCQ Headquarters processes-of-record and proven, repeatable methods.
WCQ’s facility in Taiwan is located in Hsinchu and represents a million dollar investment in equipment and facilities customization for fabrication of critical components. This is the first of a multi-million dollar phased investment project.
Heading up the Taiwan operation will be WCQ’s Mark Byrne, a distinguished materials and methods professional in the semiconductor critical components field for many years.
According to WCQ president Paul Maloney, the new facility replicates the first-rate standards of the company’s California operation: “We are responding not only to our global customers’ need for low-cost-geography-manufacturing of high-quality WCQ parts, but also to the Taiwan market’s stated preference for local fabrication. Our vertical integration, especially in silicon crystal, plus our strong Original Part Manufacturer (OPM) experience for all the major OEMs, significantly enhances opportunities for us and for our customers.”
The satellite Taiwan facility includes inter-linked implementation of WCQ’s state-of-the-art management information systems, and will fabricate quartz and silicon critical consumables strictly based on WCQ Headquarters processes-of-record and proven, repeatable methods.
Thursday, June 18, 2009
ISA's BV Naidu on India's way forward in semiconductors
B.V. Naidu, Group Chief Executive Officer, Genexx Enpower Corp. Pvt. Ltd, and currently Vice chairman Of Matrix Enport and Group CEO, VANPIC Projects, recently took over as the chairman of the India Semiconductor Association (ISA). He brings over 23 years of experience in developing the IT industry across India as part of the Department of Information Technology/Software Technology Parks of India (STPI).
Naidu's tenure at ISA's helm should turn out to be a very interesting one, given that India now has a new Union Government and Union Cabinet in place, and the latest Union Budget is likely to be announced soon. In this interview, Naidu also talks about the industry's expectations from the Central Government, on the fabs vs. fabless debate, and on the need for building a system for incubating Indian start-ups, respectively.
A very interesting development would be the ISA's proposal of the India Semiconductor Vision 2020 Document for the country. When this document is tabled, it should interest those countries, and companies, looking to invest in India -- as the document would lay out all of the clear, long term goals for the Indian semiconductor industry. Exciting times seem to be ahead for the Indian semiconductor industry. Excerpts:
Main goal for ISA
Naidu said that the ISA needs to get adopted to the changing dynamics in the industry with the increasing domestic market. It is necessary for India to enhance the product design capabilities -- which are made in India for India. In view of this, the ISA is enhancing its scope to cover the embedded software and systems companies.
"As a result of the new semiconductor policy, there has been spurt of the growth of the solar PV industry in the country. ISA has spearheaded the semicon policy, ISA is also covering the solar PV industry. Thereby, ISA is spreading its reach to cover the embedded software, electronic products as well as photovoltaic sectors," he said.
Top five points on ISA's agenda
BV Naidu: According to ISA, these should be:
i. ISA would work along with industry, academia and the Government, and formulate the strategy for the growth of fabulous design companies, product design companies, ecosystem companies and solar PV companies.
ii. ISA would also propose the India Semiconductor Vision 2020 Document for the country.
iii. ISA would enhance its activities focusing on increased product desired companies.
iv. ISA will put up a plan for working along with entrepreneurs, mentors, venture capitalists and academic institutions to enhance entrepreneurship and IP creation.
v. ISA will work with the Union Government to enhance the growth of the solar PV sector, its visibility and Government incentives to make this industry viable for growth in India.
Building semiconductor ecosystem in India
BV Naidu said that the ISA is taking several steps. These are:
ISA will strive to enhance the strategic value to its member companies -- semicon, systems and solar -- by creating balanced eco system around the its stakeholders -- industry, government and academia.
ISA should be accepted as a tier 1 industry body and think tank/advisory body for influencing policy for the Central and State governments. ISA would also encourage an entrepreneurship ecosystem focus in innovation and design. As for talent, ISA will aim for 100 PhD enrollments in research in medical and energy over the next five years.
With regard to what ISA would be doing in the coming year and in the current economic scenario, it would include the following:
For the government:
* Aim to remove anomalies in duty structure for semicon companies (Mo Fin/Com).
* Grow further fabless design companies in India (DIT).
* Roadmap for electronic manufacturing in India (NMCC).
* Take forward recommendations of SPV report (MNRE).
* Take forward the Semicon Policy implementation.
* Strengthen ties with state governments.
For SMEs/startups:
* Create platforms for mentoring & funding interaction with VCs.
* Make the ISA website a resource centre on the Indian semicon industry.
Market facing activities:
* Increase domestic market.
* Made in India for India.
* Increase competitiveness of product design, mfg & market reach.
* Position India as solar PV hub.
* Publish market sales data on a quarterly basis.
For talent:
* Aim for at least 20 PhD enrollments in research in medical and energy over the next 12 months.
Education and research perspectives
BV Naidu added that the participation of education and research would be as follows:
* Aim for 100 PhD enrollments in research in medical and energy over the next five years.
* Close working partnership between ISA and VSI to drive research agenda.
* Strong existing commitment to this agenda from VSI through corpus.
* Need each ISA member to sponsor at least one full time PhD student each year over the next five years.
* Commitment to be financial (Rs 25,000 pm), mentoring and test chips.
* Sponsorship amount will also cover international paper presentation, faculty support, kits, etc.
* ISA will work with DST to potentially match the aid from industry.
* VSI will work with universities and sponsoring companies to identify and mentor the scholars.
* All fundamental IP from the research will be available to the pool of sponsoring companies.
ISA's goal is to drive the fundamental pre-competitive semiconductor research in medical and energy in India.
Boosting semicon manufacturing
According to BV Naidu: India’s chip manufacturing has been restricted to captive centers for defense and aerospace to date. The announcement of the semiconductor policy 2007 is likely to see the opening of doors to global investors in both chip manufacturing and its ecosystem, and related hi-tech manufacturing.
The Government of India has announced a national semiconductor policy. It seeks to establish India as an attractive destination for global investors. The policy has financial subsidies and it is necessary that due diligence takes place before these benefits are sanctioned. The appointment of the Appraisal Committee and the setting up of guidelines to evaluate investments are the key for the long-term effectiveness of the policy and to build the sector.
The solar photovoltaic industry has received a real boost with the introduction of this policy and given India an opportunity to be a global player. It has also opened up opportunities for investments and employment.
Given the current economic climate, it would not be an uncommon request if the semicon policy is extended from 2010 to at least 2014/2015!
"ISA, particularly, will work along with the Government of India and various state governments to create manufacturing clusters around the country. The ISA also conducts the Excite exhibition to bring all the ecosystem players who could bring the manufacturing industry together," he added.
Fabs vs. fabless
Fabs vs. fabless has been an interesting debate. What should be the way forward for the Indian industry?
BV Naidu said: "Currently, the Indian semiconductor companies mainly focus on IC design services comprising VLSI design, board design and embedded software and are mostly in services, with a small number of product companies. There is also some amount of board level fabrication and testing activity.
"India has the potential to become a global design centre and a leader in product design, development, testing, fabrication and distribution. As a strategy, one should focus initially on product design, development, assembly and test, while leveraging wafer fabrication capability from the most competitive sources in the region."
Incubating start-ups
We haven't seen many start-ups in the recent past. How can the India industry go about trying to build a system for incubating Indian start-ups?
BV Naidu: It would be appropriate if the Government of India could provide seed and start-up capital for the new ventures and set up a focused venture fund of about Rs 200 crores. The technology development board could administer these funds and the fund may provide up to 80% of the approved project cost with equity balance being brought in by entrepreneur.
The Government can also subsidize the acquisition of EDA tools by start-ups and other SMEs in this sector.
Prototype development centers with adequate fabrication facilities can be set up as well. These centers can be managed by industry associations. Recurring costs could be met by charging user fees. ISA can be given a grant for this purpose.
The above steps will encourage entrepreneurship eco-system focus in innovation and design.
Finally, what are the industry's expectations from the new Central government?
BV Naidu said that the key areas of focus include the following:
a) Semiconductor manufacturing
i. Extension of Semicon Policy
b) Semiconductor design
i. STPI extension
ii. Transfer Pricing
c) Solar PV
i. Duty structure (point no. 3 under chapter VII on Solar PV in our pre-budget memo).
We have also made the following requests with the Government of India:
* Significance of semiconductor industry – need to accord it National Agenda status.
* Government of India Semiconductor Policy 2007 – suggested amendments.
* Domestic electronics hardware manufacturing – proposals to enhance its competitiveness.
* Fabless design companies – recommendations for growth.
* Semiconductor related research – a focus area.
* Other key proposals
* Solar PV manufacturing – Recommendations to promote domestic industry.
Naidu's tenure at ISA's helm should turn out to be a very interesting one, given that India now has a new Union Government and Union Cabinet in place, and the latest Union Budget is likely to be announced soon. In this interview, Naidu also talks about the industry's expectations from the Central Government, on the fabs vs. fabless debate, and on the need for building a system for incubating Indian start-ups, respectively.
A very interesting development would be the ISA's proposal of the India Semiconductor Vision 2020 Document for the country. When this document is tabled, it should interest those countries, and companies, looking to invest in India -- as the document would lay out all of the clear, long term goals for the Indian semiconductor industry. Exciting times seem to be ahead for the Indian semiconductor industry. Excerpts:
Main goal for ISA
Naidu said that the ISA needs to get adopted to the changing dynamics in the industry with the increasing domestic market. It is necessary for India to enhance the product design capabilities -- which are made in India for India. In view of this, the ISA is enhancing its scope to cover the embedded software and systems companies.
"As a result of the new semiconductor policy, there has been spurt of the growth of the solar PV industry in the country. ISA has spearheaded the semicon policy, ISA is also covering the solar PV industry. Thereby, ISA is spreading its reach to cover the embedded software, electronic products as well as photovoltaic sectors," he said.
Top five points on ISA's agenda
BV Naidu: According to ISA, these should be:
i. ISA would work along with industry, academia and the Government, and formulate the strategy for the growth of fabulous design companies, product design companies, ecosystem companies and solar PV companies.
ii. ISA would also propose the India Semiconductor Vision 2020 Document for the country.
iii. ISA would enhance its activities focusing on increased product desired companies.
iv. ISA will put up a plan for working along with entrepreneurs, mentors, venture capitalists and academic institutions to enhance entrepreneurship and IP creation.
v. ISA will work with the Union Government to enhance the growth of the solar PV sector, its visibility and Government incentives to make this industry viable for growth in India.
Building semiconductor ecosystem in India
BV Naidu said that the ISA is taking several steps. These are:
ISA will strive to enhance the strategic value to its member companies -- semicon, systems and solar -- by creating balanced eco system around the its stakeholders -- industry, government and academia.
ISA should be accepted as a tier 1 industry body and think tank/advisory body for influencing policy for the Central and State governments. ISA would also encourage an entrepreneurship ecosystem focus in innovation and design. As for talent, ISA will aim for 100 PhD enrollments in research in medical and energy over the next five years.
With regard to what ISA would be doing in the coming year and in the current economic scenario, it would include the following:
For the government:
* Aim to remove anomalies in duty structure for semicon companies (Mo Fin/Com).
* Grow further fabless design companies in India (DIT).
* Roadmap for electronic manufacturing in India (NMCC).
* Take forward recommendations of SPV report (MNRE).
* Take forward the Semicon Policy implementation.
* Strengthen ties with state governments.
For SMEs/startups:
* Create platforms for mentoring & funding interaction with VCs.
* Make the ISA website a resource centre on the Indian semicon industry.
Market facing activities:
* Increase domestic market.
* Made in India for India.
* Increase competitiveness of product design, mfg & market reach.
* Position India as solar PV hub.
* Publish market sales data on a quarterly basis.
For talent:
* Aim for at least 20 PhD enrollments in research in medical and energy over the next 12 months.
Education and research perspectives
BV Naidu added that the participation of education and research would be as follows:
* Aim for 100 PhD enrollments in research in medical and energy over the next five years.
* Close working partnership between ISA and VSI to drive research agenda.
* Strong existing commitment to this agenda from VSI through corpus.
* Need each ISA member to sponsor at least one full time PhD student each year over the next five years.
* Commitment to be financial (Rs 25,000 pm), mentoring and test chips.
* Sponsorship amount will also cover international paper presentation, faculty support, kits, etc.
* ISA will work with DST to potentially match the aid from industry.
* VSI will work with universities and sponsoring companies to identify and mentor the scholars.
* All fundamental IP from the research will be available to the pool of sponsoring companies.
ISA's goal is to drive the fundamental pre-competitive semiconductor research in medical and energy in India.
Boosting semicon manufacturing
According to BV Naidu: India’s chip manufacturing has been restricted to captive centers for defense and aerospace to date. The announcement of the semiconductor policy 2007 is likely to see the opening of doors to global investors in both chip manufacturing and its ecosystem, and related hi-tech manufacturing.
The Government of India has announced a national semiconductor policy. It seeks to establish India as an attractive destination for global investors. The policy has financial subsidies and it is necessary that due diligence takes place before these benefits are sanctioned. The appointment of the Appraisal Committee and the setting up of guidelines to evaluate investments are the key for the long-term effectiveness of the policy and to build the sector.
The solar photovoltaic industry has received a real boost with the introduction of this policy and given India an opportunity to be a global player. It has also opened up opportunities for investments and employment.
Given the current economic climate, it would not be an uncommon request if the semicon policy is extended from 2010 to at least 2014/2015!
"ISA, particularly, will work along with the Government of India and various state governments to create manufacturing clusters around the country. The ISA also conducts the Excite exhibition to bring all the ecosystem players who could bring the manufacturing industry together," he added.
Fabs vs. fabless
Fabs vs. fabless has been an interesting debate. What should be the way forward for the Indian industry?
BV Naidu said: "Currently, the Indian semiconductor companies mainly focus on IC design services comprising VLSI design, board design and embedded software and are mostly in services, with a small number of product companies. There is also some amount of board level fabrication and testing activity.
"India has the potential to become a global design centre and a leader in product design, development, testing, fabrication and distribution. As a strategy, one should focus initially on product design, development, assembly and test, while leveraging wafer fabrication capability from the most competitive sources in the region."
Incubating start-ups
We haven't seen many start-ups in the recent past. How can the India industry go about trying to build a system for incubating Indian start-ups?
BV Naidu: It would be appropriate if the Government of India could provide seed and start-up capital for the new ventures and set up a focused venture fund of about Rs 200 crores. The technology development board could administer these funds and the fund may provide up to 80% of the approved project cost with equity balance being brought in by entrepreneur.
The Government can also subsidize the acquisition of EDA tools by start-ups and other SMEs in this sector.
Prototype development centers with adequate fabrication facilities can be set up as well. These centers can be managed by industry associations. Recurring costs could be met by charging user fees. ISA can be given a grant for this purpose.
The above steps will encourage entrepreneurship eco-system focus in innovation and design.
Finally, what are the industry's expectations from the new Central government?
BV Naidu said that the key areas of focus include the following:
a) Semiconductor manufacturing
i. Extension of Semicon Policy
b) Semiconductor design
i. STPI extension
ii. Transfer Pricing
c) Solar PV
i. Duty structure (point no. 3 under chapter VII on Solar PV in our pre-budget memo).
We have also made the following requests with the Government of India:
* Significance of semiconductor industry – need to accord it National Agenda status.
* Government of India Semiconductor Policy 2007 – suggested amendments.
* Domestic electronics hardware manufacturing – proposals to enhance its competitiveness.
* Fabless design companies – recommendations for growth.
* Semiconductor related research – a focus area.
* Other key proposals
* Solar PV manufacturing – Recommendations to promote domestic industry.
Friday, April 10, 2009
Opportunities in India's solar/PV landscape: SEMI India
Solar/photovoltaics (PV) holds tremendous potential and promise for India, a fact not hidden from anyone. To further highlight its importance, SEMI India unveiled its first paper on Solar PV in India yesterday afternoon.
More action from Indian government needed
The meet called for more action from the government of India, a more closer industry-government collaboration, as well as the need for financial institutions to pay more attention to the solar/PV segment in India.
The photo here shows from left to right: Dr. Madhusudan V. Atre, President, Applied Materials India; Dr. J. Gururaja, Renewable Energy Action Forum & Executive President, SEMI India; K. Subramanya, CEO, Tata BP Solar; and Sathya Prasad, president, SEMI India.
Touching on the rationale for this SEMI paper on solar/PV's landscape in India, Dr. J. Gururaja, Renewable Energy Action Forum and Executive President, SEMI India, said it was meant to project the solar/PV industry's perspective: where we are and what needs to be done! This is a first account report and will be followed by many other such reports.
He said: "Solar in general, and PV in particular, can address the challenges that we face today. Solar/PV has a special attraction. It converts solar to electricity without involving any moving parts."
He added that although the industry has been looking at the potential, the markets have not been expanding as expected. "We need to see what can be done and achieved. This report is a stock-taking exercise," he pointed out.
Case for solar/PV in India
Sathya Prasad, president of SEMI India, touched upon the case for PV in India. These include:
* The existing power deficit situation in many parts of the country.
* India's brisk economic growth implies rising energy needs.
* Overdependence on coal for electricity generation -- limited coal reserves and CO2 emissions.
* Overdependence on oil and natural gas imports -- it accounts for 7 percent of GDP and consequent energy security concerns.
According to him, India is abundantly endowed with solar radiation. So far, so good!
Key PV opportunities for India
According to SEMI's paper, the key PV opportunities for India lie in off-grid applications and grid-connected PV. The off-grid applications include:
* Basic lighting and electrification of rural homes.
* Irrigation pump sets.
* Power back-up for cellular base station towers -- approximately, there will be 2.9 lakh base station towers by the end of 2009.
* Urban applications -- such as street lighting, etc.
The opportunities in grid-connected PV exist in:
* The current grid connected PV generation capacity is very small.
* Existing power deficit and huge projected future need.
* The cost point of PV has been declining continuously with technology improvements and scale.
Benefits of PV in India
The benefits of PV in India extend well beyond addressing energy needs. For instance, renewable energy technologies create more jobs than any fossil fuel based technologies. It also creates jobs across the value chain -- from R&D to manufacturing, installation and maintenance. Sathya Prasad highlighted MNRE's point that about 100,000 jobs could be created out of PV.
PV also has the capability of transforming lives. About 450 million Indians today manage with kerosene/other fuels for very basic lighting despite its significant health and safety risks. In this context, special mention needs to be made of the Aryavarta Grameen Bank's home electrification program.
Challenges for PV in India
Evidently, a bunch of opportunities are awaiting India in the solar/PV space. However, several challenges need to be overcome as well. These would be:
* Need for closer industry-government co-operation.
* Need for standards.
* Need for collaborative, goals driven R&D.
* Training and human resources development
* Need for financing infrastructure and models.
So, what are the recommendations of this paper on solar/PV landscape in India, and further call to action? These are:
* Need to evolve a common government-industry vision to make India a world leader in PV.
* Develop financing infrastructure and models that will motivate large-scale PV adoption and investments.
* Expand development of PV in off-grid applications.
* Accelerate grid-connected PV generation on a large scale.
Call for low carbon growth strategy
"Low carbon growth path is universal now. To make that happen, there needs to be a political will," advised K. Subramanya, CEO, Tata BP Solar, and chairman SEMI India PV Advisory Committee, while presenting his perspective on the solar/PV industry in India.
There has been little action on part of the government of India. "This needs to be implemented on the ground. We need policy and lifestyle innovation," he added. Subramanya cautioned that, "Too much of analysis will result in paralysis." According to him, separate budgets are required for a low carbon growth strategy. "Solar has tremendous potential. Even its learning curve is brilliant," Subramanya noted.
He added that if the European Union (EU) can make a low carbon journey so smoothly, then why not India? For instance, in Karnataka state alone, the demand is said to be 6700MW and a 10-11 percent peak shortage. We have 20-odd lakh Bhagya Jyoti and Kutir Jyoti units, and around 7,870-odd street lights. If a majority of these can be replaced by solar, it could lead to tremendous savings! This could be at least 57MW for a state like Karnataka. Apparently, all of this would require an investment of Rs. 52 crores and a payback time of two years.
"Why can't we develop a low-carbon growth path for every state in India? Imagine, what it can do for the other states," Subramanya highlighted. "If the power sector does not do well, it will hit the country's GDP!" Quite rightly so!!
Subramanya cited another example of solar water heaters in Karnataka. There are 32 lakh homes, of which about 5 lakh homes have solar water heaters. If more houses were to adopt these, it would result in a saving of 4,000MW of electricity! The Tata BP Solar CEO also called upon financial institutions to have a closer look at solar. Even the tariffs structure for solar/PV in India is not favorable enough.
He also touched upon US President Barack Obama's energy plan and the actions taken, since his coming to power, and drew a parallel with India's national action plan, which includes a solar mssion. This was released last June, but hardly any action has happened on the ground. So, there needs be changes on this front as well.
Four key aspects for solar/PV in India
Dr. Madhusudan V. Atre, president, Applied Materials India and vice chairman SEMI India PV Advisory Committee, highlighted four major aspects while presenting his perspective on the solar/PV industry. These are:
* See the advantage SEMI India brings to India. It can help bring costs down, due to the involvement of the PV Group.
* A point Dr. Atre had highlighted to me about a year back -- that solar/PV is a great way to trigger manufacturing in India. He said that the solar/PV ecosystem will be a very important step in setting up a semiconductor manufacturing ecosystem in the country.
* What wireless did to telecom -- perhaps, solar/PV has a similar aim! It can get rid of transmission lines and actually take power to the people!
* The Indian government-academia-industry would need to work hand-in-hand.
More action from Indian government needed
The meet called for more action from the government of India, a more closer industry-government collaboration, as well as the need for financial institutions to pay more attention to the solar/PV segment in India.
The photo here shows from left to right: Dr. Madhusudan V. Atre, President, Applied Materials India; Dr. J. Gururaja, Renewable Energy Action Forum & Executive President, SEMI India; K. Subramanya, CEO, Tata BP Solar; and Sathya Prasad, president, SEMI India.Touching on the rationale for this SEMI paper on solar/PV's landscape in India, Dr. J. Gururaja, Renewable Energy Action Forum and Executive President, SEMI India, said it was meant to project the solar/PV industry's perspective: where we are and what needs to be done! This is a first account report and will be followed by many other such reports.
He said: "Solar in general, and PV in particular, can address the challenges that we face today. Solar/PV has a special attraction. It converts solar to electricity without involving any moving parts."
He added that although the industry has been looking at the potential, the markets have not been expanding as expected. "We need to see what can be done and achieved. This report is a stock-taking exercise," he pointed out.
Case for solar/PV in India
Sathya Prasad, president of SEMI India, touched upon the case for PV in India. These include:
* The existing power deficit situation in many parts of the country.
* India's brisk economic growth implies rising energy needs.
* Overdependence on coal for electricity generation -- limited coal reserves and CO2 emissions.
* Overdependence on oil and natural gas imports -- it accounts for 7 percent of GDP and consequent energy security concerns.
According to him, India is abundantly endowed with solar radiation. So far, so good!
Key PV opportunities for India
According to SEMI's paper, the key PV opportunities for India lie in off-grid applications and grid-connected PV. The off-grid applications include:
* Basic lighting and electrification of rural homes.
* Irrigation pump sets.
* Power back-up for cellular base station towers -- approximately, there will be 2.9 lakh base station towers by the end of 2009.
* Urban applications -- such as street lighting, etc.
The opportunities in grid-connected PV exist in:
* The current grid connected PV generation capacity is very small.
* Existing power deficit and huge projected future need.
* The cost point of PV has been declining continuously with technology improvements and scale.
Benefits of PV in India
The benefits of PV in India extend well beyond addressing energy needs. For instance, renewable energy technologies create more jobs than any fossil fuel based technologies. It also creates jobs across the value chain -- from R&D to manufacturing, installation and maintenance. Sathya Prasad highlighted MNRE's point that about 100,000 jobs could be created out of PV.
PV also has the capability of transforming lives. About 450 million Indians today manage with kerosene/other fuels for very basic lighting despite its significant health and safety risks. In this context, special mention needs to be made of the Aryavarta Grameen Bank's home electrification program.
Challenges for PV in India
Evidently, a bunch of opportunities are awaiting India in the solar/PV space. However, several challenges need to be overcome as well. These would be:
* Need for closer industry-government co-operation.
* Need for standards.
* Need for collaborative, goals driven R&D.
* Training and human resources development
* Need for financing infrastructure and models.
So, what are the recommendations of this paper on solar/PV landscape in India, and further call to action? These are:
* Need to evolve a common government-industry vision to make India a world leader in PV.
* Develop financing infrastructure and models that will motivate large-scale PV adoption and investments.
* Expand development of PV in off-grid applications.
* Accelerate grid-connected PV generation on a large scale.
Call for low carbon growth strategy
"Low carbon growth path is universal now. To make that happen, there needs to be a political will," advised K. Subramanya, CEO, Tata BP Solar, and chairman SEMI India PV Advisory Committee, while presenting his perspective on the solar/PV industry in India.
There has been little action on part of the government of India. "This needs to be implemented on the ground. We need policy and lifestyle innovation," he added. Subramanya cautioned that, "Too much of analysis will result in paralysis." According to him, separate budgets are required for a low carbon growth strategy. "Solar has tremendous potential. Even its learning curve is brilliant," Subramanya noted.
He added that if the European Union (EU) can make a low carbon journey so smoothly, then why not India? For instance, in Karnataka state alone, the demand is said to be 6700MW and a 10-11 percent peak shortage. We have 20-odd lakh Bhagya Jyoti and Kutir Jyoti units, and around 7,870-odd street lights. If a majority of these can be replaced by solar, it could lead to tremendous savings! This could be at least 57MW for a state like Karnataka. Apparently, all of this would require an investment of Rs. 52 crores and a payback time of two years.
"Why can't we develop a low-carbon growth path for every state in India? Imagine, what it can do for the other states," Subramanya highlighted. "If the power sector does not do well, it will hit the country's GDP!" Quite rightly so!!
Subramanya cited another example of solar water heaters in Karnataka. There are 32 lakh homes, of which about 5 lakh homes have solar water heaters. If more houses were to adopt these, it would result in a saving of 4,000MW of electricity! The Tata BP Solar CEO also called upon financial institutions to have a closer look at solar. Even the tariffs structure for solar/PV in India is not favorable enough.
He also touched upon US President Barack Obama's energy plan and the actions taken, since his coming to power, and drew a parallel with India's national action plan, which includes a solar mssion. This was released last June, but hardly any action has happened on the ground. So, there needs be changes on this front as well.
Four key aspects for solar/PV in India
Dr. Madhusudan V. Atre, president, Applied Materials India and vice chairman SEMI India PV Advisory Committee, highlighted four major aspects while presenting his perspective on the solar/PV industry. These are:
* See the advantage SEMI India brings to India. It can help bring costs down, due to the involvement of the PV Group.
* A point Dr. Atre had highlighted to me about a year back -- that solar/PV is a great way to trigger manufacturing in India. He said that the solar/PV ecosystem will be a very important step in setting up a semiconductor manufacturing ecosystem in the country.
* What wireless did to telecom -- perhaps, solar/PV has a similar aim! It can get rid of transmission lines and actually take power to the people!
* The Indian government-academia-industry would need to work hand-in-hand.
Friday, February 6, 2009
Global semiconductor industry could well see revival in 2010?
"Let's start from the very beginning! A very good place to start!!"
Hope you all remember this lovely song sung by Julie Andrews in The Sound of Music!! So, what's the connection?
Right! Last week, I blogged about how the global semiconductor industry is likely to drop by 28 percent in 2009, while the Indian industry should grow by 13.4 percent during the same period, and that, we should not get carried away by these statistics!
A moment to ponder: isn't this drop of 28 percent too high for the global semicon industry? Or, is the situation really that bad? So, let's start from the very beginning, and go straight to the source -- Malcolm Penn!
Revival likely by 2010?
Here's what Malcolm Penn, CEO and founder of Future Horizons, had to say: "Fraid not! It could even be lower, but remember that this is a year on year number. It is based on the following assumptions: Q4-08 down 22.5 percent vs. Q3-08; Q1-09 down 20 percent vs Q4-08; Q2 down 2 percent vs Q1; and Q3 up 12 percent vs Q2, and Q4 up 3 percent vs Q3! And, if this pattern runs true, 2010 will be up 28 percent vs 2009!"
Voila! The global semiconductor industry could well be in for a major revival next year itself! Why, even Bill McClean, president of IC Insights, took a more optimistic look at the state of the industry in light of the current global economic situation at the recently concluded SEMI ISS 2009 conference!!
Continues Penn, "The actual Q4 results (released this Sunday) were down 24.2 percent, slightly worse than our estimate."
How to get the buzz back in semicon?
It has been said that the current situation the global semiconductor industry finds itself in was fueled by greed and short-term business goals. So, who were the culprits? Weren't they warned earlier?
Adds Penn: "It was more complex that that! The woeful state-of-the-world economy was a consequence of debt, greed and irresponsibility; political self interests and short-term business goals, aided and abetted by compliant governments; ineffective regulators; imprudent institutions; incompetent management; irrational self delusion and vested self-interests! No one is blameless for this crisis! Concerns were raised, but the human nature is often irrational, and the 'easy option' always the one of choice."
So true! Perhaps, the 'easy option' factor seems to be affecting the Indian semiconductor industry as well, but more of that later!
The key issue today is: what needs to be done to get the buzz back in the global semiconductor industry? The answer probably lies in the following: in the short-term, it involves rebuilding the industry confidence, and in longer term, it involves a radical return to 'old fashioned' business and political values.
On another note, I was curious to know how the EDA segment is doing? Penn said, "No better, no worse than normal, technology marches on, new designs accelerate in a downturn."
Tricky memory!
Memory is another segment that's been hit hard. In fact, the other day, someone asked me why Qimonda's story was so important!
Another could not understand what Spansion really did, and why it had announced this January 15 that the company was exploring strategic alternatives for a sale or a merger! Doesn't matter! Memory is a very tricky business, and semiconductors is the mother of all such tricky businesses! Perhaps, isn't that why they once said in jest: "Real men have fabs!" Anyhow!
Coming back to memory, when can the industry expect some recovery in NAND? More importantly, will the various government interventions help? Qimonda also recently petitioned for the opening of the insolvency proceedings.
Penn is clear: "NAND will recover when the excess capacity abates, and that will take several more quarters. The government intervention won't help, rather the opposite, and it will exacerbate the excess capacity issue."
Fab spends to move up only by Q1-2010
Earlier, Penn predicted a recovery in 2010 with the resumption of growth in Q3 2009. What will make this happen? He says, "A recovering world GDP growth, plus a return in business confidence."
However, those keen on fabs, do not expect the fab spends to look up any time soon! In fact, Penn estimates fab spends to start moving north not until Q1-2010 at the earliest.
The Chinese impact!
Interestingly, China is set to see negative growth of 5.8 percent during 2009. It will be worth noting how much of this this impact the global semiconductor industry.
Point one, compared to a global semicon fall of 28 percent in 2009, Penn considers a fall in China's semicon fortunes of 5.8 percent to be 'darned sight better!' So, China should still be a high growth market (relatively speaking).
And India?
Like I mentioned earlier, the Indian semiconductor industry is perhaps getting affected by the 'easy option.' Design services continue to do well, hopefully, but when it comes to real semiconductor product companies, those are far and few.
And, I haven't seen any real activity in the recent past that could tell me more such initiatives are in the pipeline. Nor do I think there are many attempts to even incubate such companies. On the contrary, there's a mad rush toward solar!
No harm there! Solar is great for India and the need of the hour. However, India should not forget its semiconductor priorities as well! Indian simply cannot bank on chip design services and solar gains, and then proclaim that it has a very successful semiconductor industry! Real action is still quite far away.
I think, India needs to rethink its semiconductor strategy! It cannot survive on chip design alone.
"When you know the notes to sing, you can sing most anything," concludes the song from The Sound of Music!
So, is the Indian semiconductor industry hitting the right notes? That's going to be my next blog post, friends.
Hope you all remember this lovely song sung by Julie Andrews in The Sound of Music!! So, what's the connection?
Right! Last week, I blogged about how the global semiconductor industry is likely to drop by 28 percent in 2009, while the Indian industry should grow by 13.4 percent during the same period, and that, we should not get carried away by these statistics!
A moment to ponder: isn't this drop of 28 percent too high for the global semicon industry? Or, is the situation really that bad? So, let's start from the very beginning, and go straight to the source -- Malcolm Penn!
Revival likely by 2010?
Here's what Malcolm Penn, CEO and founder of Future Horizons, had to say: "Fraid not! It could even be lower, but remember that this is a year on year number. It is based on the following assumptions: Q4-08 down 22.5 percent vs. Q3-08; Q1-09 down 20 percent vs Q4-08; Q2 down 2 percent vs Q1; and Q3 up 12 percent vs Q2, and Q4 up 3 percent vs Q3! And, if this pattern runs true, 2010 will be up 28 percent vs 2009!"Voila! The global semiconductor industry could well be in for a major revival next year itself! Why, even Bill McClean, president of IC Insights, took a more optimistic look at the state of the industry in light of the current global economic situation at the recently concluded SEMI ISS 2009 conference!!
Continues Penn, "The actual Q4 results (released this Sunday) were down 24.2 percent, slightly worse than our estimate."
How to get the buzz back in semicon?
It has been said that the current situation the global semiconductor industry finds itself in was fueled by greed and short-term business goals. So, who were the culprits? Weren't they warned earlier?
Adds Penn: "It was more complex that that! The woeful state-of-the-world economy was a consequence of debt, greed and irresponsibility; political self interests and short-term business goals, aided and abetted by compliant governments; ineffective regulators; imprudent institutions; incompetent management; irrational self delusion and vested self-interests! No one is blameless for this crisis! Concerns were raised, but the human nature is often irrational, and the 'easy option' always the one of choice."
So true! Perhaps, the 'easy option' factor seems to be affecting the Indian semiconductor industry as well, but more of that later!
The key issue today is: what needs to be done to get the buzz back in the global semiconductor industry? The answer probably lies in the following: in the short-term, it involves rebuilding the industry confidence, and in longer term, it involves a radical return to 'old fashioned' business and political values.
On another note, I was curious to know how the EDA segment is doing? Penn said, "No better, no worse than normal, technology marches on, new designs accelerate in a downturn."
Tricky memory!
Memory is another segment that's been hit hard. In fact, the other day, someone asked me why Qimonda's story was so important!
Another could not understand what Spansion really did, and why it had announced this January 15 that the company was exploring strategic alternatives for a sale or a merger! Doesn't matter! Memory is a very tricky business, and semiconductors is the mother of all such tricky businesses! Perhaps, isn't that why they once said in jest: "Real men have fabs!" Anyhow!
Coming back to memory, when can the industry expect some recovery in NAND? More importantly, will the various government interventions help? Qimonda also recently petitioned for the opening of the insolvency proceedings.
Penn is clear: "NAND will recover when the excess capacity abates, and that will take several more quarters. The government intervention won't help, rather the opposite, and it will exacerbate the excess capacity issue."
Fab spends to move up only by Q1-2010
Earlier, Penn predicted a recovery in 2010 with the resumption of growth in Q3 2009. What will make this happen? He says, "A recovering world GDP growth, plus a return in business confidence."
However, those keen on fabs, do not expect the fab spends to look up any time soon! In fact, Penn estimates fab spends to start moving north not until Q1-2010 at the earliest.
The Chinese impact!
Interestingly, China is set to see negative growth of 5.8 percent during 2009. It will be worth noting how much of this this impact the global semiconductor industry.
Point one, compared to a global semicon fall of 28 percent in 2009, Penn considers a fall in China's semicon fortunes of 5.8 percent to be 'darned sight better!' So, China should still be a high growth market (relatively speaking).
And India?
Like I mentioned earlier, the Indian semiconductor industry is perhaps getting affected by the 'easy option.' Design services continue to do well, hopefully, but when it comes to real semiconductor product companies, those are far and few.
And, I haven't seen any real activity in the recent past that could tell me more such initiatives are in the pipeline. Nor do I think there are many attempts to even incubate such companies. On the contrary, there's a mad rush toward solar!
No harm there! Solar is great for India and the need of the hour. However, India should not forget its semiconductor priorities as well! Indian simply cannot bank on chip design services and solar gains, and then proclaim that it has a very successful semiconductor industry! Real action is still quite far away.
I think, India needs to rethink its semiconductor strategy! It cannot survive on chip design alone.
"When you know the notes to sing, you can sing most anything," concludes the song from The Sound of Music!
So, is the Indian semiconductor industry hitting the right notes? That's going to be my next blog post, friends.
Wednesday, January 21, 2009
Obama strikes right chords for science and technology!
Finally, the USA has Barack Obama as its 44th president! There are bound to be lots of expectations from the new president of the United States.
Very interestingly, and aptly, Obama referred to science and technology in his inaugural speech. Surely, it is not a place for any US president to detail his policy, but from what everyone heard, the new President struck the right chords.
Savor some of these extracts from his inaugural speech:
"The state of the economy calls for action—bold and swift—and we will act, not only to create new jobs, but to lay a new foundation for growth. We will build the roads and bridges, the electric grids, and digital lines that feed our commerce and bind us together."
"We will restore science to its rightful place and wield technology's wonders to raise health care's quality and lower its cost."
"We will harness the sun and the winds and the soil to fuel our cars and run our factories."
Wonderful! The US President clearly hinted at the role science will play during his tenure. Also, his suggestion of 'harnessing the sun and the winds' points to the growing importance of renewable energy, hybrid cars, and of course, solar photovoltaics.
I've indicated in an earlier blog post that Obama's, "New Energy for America Plan" could have a significant impact on the US solar industry.
The plan's provisions include:
• A federal renewable portfolio standard (RPS) that requires 10 percent of electricity consumed in the US to come from renewable sources by 2012.
• A $150 billion investment over 10 years in research, technologydemonstration and commercial deployment of clean energy technology.
• Extension of production tax credits for five years to encourage renewable energy production.
• A cap-and-trade system of carbon credits to provide an incentive for businesses to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
The focus on healthcare could see more attention on medical electronics -- just my guess -- and use it to provide affordable healthcare services.
I'd be very interested to see even more activity on hybrid cars. Closer to home we have had two great prototypes of hybrid/fuel-efficient cars last year -- the Chimera, said to be India's first plug-in hybrid car, and the Garuda.
As I am about to unwind for the day, I received a press release from the Consumer Electronics Association (CEA), USA, where the CEA President and CEO Gary Shapiro congratulated Barack Obama on becoming the 44th President of the United States of America, saying: "On behalf of its 2,200 consumer technology member companies, CEA congratulates President Obama, our first digital president, on his inauguration."
Indeed, Obama is the USA's and the world's first digital president! I'd go on to add that he's the world's first Web 2.0 president! For instance, the amount of activity on Facebook has been overwhelming. Oh, in case you happen to visit the White House web site, it's brand new! The site says: "WhiteHouse.gov will be a central part of President Obama's pledge to make his the most transparent and accountable administration in American history."
Very interestingly, and aptly, Obama referred to science and technology in his inaugural speech. Surely, it is not a place for any US president to detail his policy, but from what everyone heard, the new President struck the right chords.
Savor some of these extracts from his inaugural speech:
"The state of the economy calls for action—bold and swift—and we will act, not only to create new jobs, but to lay a new foundation for growth. We will build the roads and bridges, the electric grids, and digital lines that feed our commerce and bind us together."
"We will restore science to its rightful place and wield technology's wonders to raise health care's quality and lower its cost."
"We will harness the sun and the winds and the soil to fuel our cars and run our factories."
Wonderful! The US President clearly hinted at the role science will play during his tenure. Also, his suggestion of 'harnessing the sun and the winds' points to the growing importance of renewable energy, hybrid cars, and of course, solar photovoltaics.
I've indicated in an earlier blog post that Obama's, "New Energy for America Plan" could have a significant impact on the US solar industry.
The plan's provisions include:
• A federal renewable portfolio standard (RPS) that requires 10 percent of electricity consumed in the US to come from renewable sources by 2012.
• A $150 billion investment over 10 years in research, technologydemonstration and commercial deployment of clean energy technology.
• Extension of production tax credits for five years to encourage renewable energy production.
• A cap-and-trade system of carbon credits to provide an incentive for businesses to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
The focus on healthcare could see more attention on medical electronics -- just my guess -- and use it to provide affordable healthcare services.
I'd be very interested to see even more activity on hybrid cars. Closer to home we have had two great prototypes of hybrid/fuel-efficient cars last year -- the Chimera, said to be India's first plug-in hybrid car, and the Garuda.
As I am about to unwind for the day, I received a press release from the Consumer Electronics Association (CEA), USA, where the CEA President and CEO Gary Shapiro congratulated Barack Obama on becoming the 44th President of the United States of America, saying: "On behalf of its 2,200 consumer technology member companies, CEA congratulates President Obama, our first digital president, on his inauguration."
Indeed, Obama is the USA's and the world's first digital president! I'd go on to add that he's the world's first Web 2.0 president! For instance, the amount of activity on Facebook has been overwhelming. Oh, in case you happen to visit the White House web site, it's brand new! The site says: "WhiteHouse.gov will be a central part of President Obama's pledge to make his the most transparent and accountable administration in American history."
Friday, January 16, 2009
Dramatic price forecast to reshape PV industry: iSuppli
I was very fortunate to attend a webinar on solar PV a couple of days back, thanks to iSuppli, USA. The webinar looked at:
* Polysilicon -- what is going on in the market?
* Cells and modules -- where will the prices go?
Dr. Henning Wicht, senior director and principal analyst, iSuppli, made it clear that the intention was to show what's coming out of primary industry research.
He said: "We believe that solar is a fantastic market. It has been growing over the last four years by revenue. It will continue to grow! There are not many industries with a growth path like that! However, in last the 18 months, the supply has been disconnected from demand."
This is exactly the point iSuppli addressed in its webinar. Dr. Wicht was accompanied by Stefan de Haan, senior analyst, photovoltaics, iSuppli.
iSuppli's recent findings are:
* Severe supply chain imbalances exist at polysilicon/wafer and cell/module levels.
* Short term polysilicon and module prices will decrease significantly.
Polysilicon: What's going on with supply and pricing?
If you looked at the global solar PV industry, many plants are under construction, and there are huge capacity expansion plans. There has been a dramatic decrease in production. In 2008, iSuppli estimated total production of solar PV at 60,000 metric tons. In 2009, about 100,000 metric tons will be produced!
What are the reasons for this supply situation? In 2005-06, the high margins of this industry attracted several newcomers. The cycle time to ramp up a polysilicon plant is 24-36 months, and including another 12 months to get finance, it takes about four years.
He said: "The decisions taken in year 2005-06 are coming to the market now. This is also why we see the big ramp in 2009-10. This is also the reason why the industry will have big difficulties to react on a short term notice. The polysilicon industry is a big super tanker, which has difficulties to maneuver on short term."
Looking at the demand side of things, iSuppli showed a graph where the two curves -- polysilicon supply and polysilicon demand meet, or rather cross, in early 2010. From that point on, the supply line passes the demand line. "That means, from that time onward, we definitely see prices for polysilicon decreasing," he said.
What will happen in 2009?
The key point to note is that the ramping rates of polysilicon and solar cells are completely different! The ramping rate of polysilicon is much steeper, than on the cell side. Polysilicon is more than doubling, while the cell industry is growing at 34 percent.
According to Dr. Wicht, the gap between demand and supply is already shrinking fast in 2009, which will lead to a price decrease in 2009.
Coming to prices, the polysilicon market boasts two kinds of prices -- long term and spot market. According to Dr. Wicht, the long term prices are already decreasing from around $100/kg in 2008, and it is expected to be around $80/kg in 2009.
On the other hand, the spot market price peaked in 2008 at around $400/kg. Now, it has already dropped. It will continue to drop, far beyond today's long term contract price, which will then, from 2010 onward, make up another round of discussion. This is because companies might tend to get out of their long term contracts to secure their silicon on the spot!
Summarizing, he said that polysilicon production will increase heavily. Next, supply will pass demand from 2010 onward, and then the industry will enter the oversupply situation for the next three to four years. The polysilicon industry will also react. In fact, iSuppli anticipates a recent announcement from a solar PV company to expand production capacity would be the last for quite a while!
What about projects on the way? These projects have to come on to the market and many of those will! This is precisely the reason why the industry will see silicon passing solar cells in capacity over the next few years.
Stefan de Haan added that the output of the PV modules industry will grow. The total module prod will likely grow to 11GW this year and to 20GW in 2012. Thin film modules will continuously gain market share and it probably account for 1/3rd of the total market by 2012. Production of crystalline cells will run in parallel. It is likely to reach 9GW for 2009 and 18GW for 2012.
Commenting on the competitive landscape, he added that many new players would be entering production in 2009, especially in the thin film business. "However, the current leaders -- QCells, Suntech and First Solar -- will increase their edge over the competition in terms of absolute production volumes," he said.
In general, it is a good thing that the industry is growing and that all of this capacity is coming online. However, this raises the question: can demand can keep up with the supply?
According to iSuppli, in 2009, the installation market will be flattening. In the sense, iSuppli projects that 4.2GW will be installed this year, or about 10 percent growth. However, this growth is much smaller in comparison to the previous years. Some of the reasons for slower growth in 2009 include changes in sustained feed-in tariffs and the global economic slowdown.
Hann added, "In H2-2010, module demand will probably return to the previous growth rates, of more than 20 percent per year."
Combining demand and supply, there is a massive oversupply of modules that has already been building up since early 2008. Back in 2008, this did not impact on the module prices as there was short term heavy demand from countries like Germany and Spain, from project developers and installation companies, etc. So, this was not noticeable earlier. However, in 2009, the oversupply situation is quite serious!
As a consequence, many suppliers will not be able to react to this situation in the short term. They will still need to run their factories to try and generate some revenue and satisfy the industry. Many had bet on some strong demand coming from USA and also China.
This year, the module prices will decline. Consequently, the declining prices will also create some additional demand. However, for the next two years, this fundamental oversupply situation will not change.
How far will prices drop?
So, what are the message for 2009? First, crystalline module prices will drop to about $2.50 per watt, and second, cost is going to be the differentiating factor! This was a point emphasized strongly by the iSuppli analysts.
Further, how should companies manage this situation, where supply is disconnected by demand? According to Dr. Wicht, there is 11.1GW of module supply vs. 4.2GW of installations. "We do not see that the demand is elastic and that everything will be good after the end of 2009. The gap is too large between demand and supply, and will last till end of 2010."
Installation capacity will surely become a bottleneck. There will be falling prices for silicon, as well as solar cells and modules. Also, the demand is not that elastic enough to absorb all modules produced.
Therefore, given this situation, what are the options for success, rather, what are the ideas to re-orient the solar PV business?
The first option could be to shut down 50 percent of production till price recovers. However, this is not a realistic option. Another could be to put expansion plans on hold. Yet another option for producers would be to become the best in class in production cost, an option, which is excellent, but difficult!
Probably, the best option would be for makers to integrate downstream. This includes new demand simulation in established markets as well as developing new markets.
Dr. Wicht said: "Anticipating bottlenecks are key for solar. The next bottlenecks are the bureaucracy and installation capacity. The production capacity would not be influential. Production cost and downstream integration are key." He advised solar PV producers to monitor their PV market demand and supply situation regularly.
* Polysilicon -- what is going on in the market?
* Cells and modules -- where will the prices go?
Dr. Henning Wicht, senior director and principal analyst, iSuppli, made it clear that the intention was to show what's coming out of primary industry research. He said: "We believe that solar is a fantastic market. It has been growing over the last four years by revenue. It will continue to grow! There are not many industries with a growth path like that! However, in last the 18 months, the supply has been disconnected from demand."
This is exactly the point iSuppli addressed in its webinar. Dr. Wicht was accompanied by Stefan de Haan, senior analyst, photovoltaics, iSuppli.
iSuppli's recent findings are:
* Severe supply chain imbalances exist at polysilicon/wafer and cell/module levels.
* Short term polysilicon and module prices will decrease significantly.
Polysilicon: What's going on with supply and pricing?
If you looked at the global solar PV industry, many plants are under construction, and there are huge capacity expansion plans. There has been a dramatic decrease in production. In 2008, iSuppli estimated total production of solar PV at 60,000 metric tons. In 2009, about 100,000 metric tons will be produced!
What are the reasons for this supply situation? In 2005-06, the high margins of this industry attracted several newcomers. The cycle time to ramp up a polysilicon plant is 24-36 months, and including another 12 months to get finance, it takes about four years.
He said: "The decisions taken in year 2005-06 are coming to the market now. This is also why we see the big ramp in 2009-10. This is also the reason why the industry will have big difficulties to react on a short term notice. The polysilicon industry is a big super tanker, which has difficulties to maneuver on short term."
Looking at the demand side of things, iSuppli showed a graph where the two curves -- polysilicon supply and polysilicon demand meet, or rather cross, in early 2010. From that point on, the supply line passes the demand line. "That means, from that time onward, we definitely see prices for polysilicon decreasing," he said.
What will happen in 2009?
The key point to note is that the ramping rates of polysilicon and solar cells are completely different! The ramping rate of polysilicon is much steeper, than on the cell side. Polysilicon is more than doubling, while the cell industry is growing at 34 percent.
According to Dr. Wicht, the gap between demand and supply is already shrinking fast in 2009, which will lead to a price decrease in 2009.
Coming to prices, the polysilicon market boasts two kinds of prices -- long term and spot market. According to Dr. Wicht, the long term prices are already decreasing from around $100/kg in 2008, and it is expected to be around $80/kg in 2009.
On the other hand, the spot market price peaked in 2008 at around $400/kg. Now, it has already dropped. It will continue to drop, far beyond today's long term contract price, which will then, from 2010 onward, make up another round of discussion. This is because companies might tend to get out of their long term contracts to secure their silicon on the spot!
Summarizing, he said that polysilicon production will increase heavily. Next, supply will pass demand from 2010 onward, and then the industry will enter the oversupply situation for the next three to four years. The polysilicon industry will also react. In fact, iSuppli anticipates a recent announcement from a solar PV company to expand production capacity would be the last for quite a while!
What about projects on the way? These projects have to come on to the market and many of those will! This is precisely the reason why the industry will see silicon passing solar cells in capacity over the next few years.
Stefan de Haan added that the output of the PV modules industry will grow. The total module prod will likely grow to 11GW this year and to 20GW in 2012. Thin film modules will continuously gain market share and it probably account for 1/3rd of the total market by 2012. Production of crystalline cells will run in parallel. It is likely to reach 9GW for 2009 and 18GW for 2012.
Commenting on the competitive landscape, he added that many new players would be entering production in 2009, especially in the thin film business. "However, the current leaders -- QCells, Suntech and First Solar -- will increase their edge over the competition in terms of absolute production volumes," he said.
In general, it is a good thing that the industry is growing and that all of this capacity is coming online. However, this raises the question: can demand can keep up with the supply?
According to iSuppli, in 2009, the installation market will be flattening. In the sense, iSuppli projects that 4.2GW will be installed this year, or about 10 percent growth. However, this growth is much smaller in comparison to the previous years. Some of the reasons for slower growth in 2009 include changes in sustained feed-in tariffs and the global economic slowdown.
Hann added, "In H2-2010, module demand will probably return to the previous growth rates, of more than 20 percent per year."
Combining demand and supply, there is a massive oversupply of modules that has already been building up since early 2008. Back in 2008, this did not impact on the module prices as there was short term heavy demand from countries like Germany and Spain, from project developers and installation companies, etc. So, this was not noticeable earlier. However, in 2009, the oversupply situation is quite serious!
As a consequence, many suppliers will not be able to react to this situation in the short term. They will still need to run their factories to try and generate some revenue and satisfy the industry. Many had bet on some strong demand coming from USA and also China.
This year, the module prices will decline. Consequently, the declining prices will also create some additional demand. However, for the next two years, this fundamental oversupply situation will not change.
How far will prices drop?
So, what are the message for 2009? First, crystalline module prices will drop to about $2.50 per watt, and second, cost is going to be the differentiating factor! This was a point emphasized strongly by the iSuppli analysts.
Further, how should companies manage this situation, where supply is disconnected by demand? According to Dr. Wicht, there is 11.1GW of module supply vs. 4.2GW of installations. "We do not see that the demand is elastic and that everything will be good after the end of 2009. The gap is too large between demand and supply, and will last till end of 2010."
Installation capacity will surely become a bottleneck. There will be falling prices for silicon, as well as solar cells and modules. Also, the demand is not that elastic enough to absorb all modules produced.
Therefore, given this situation, what are the options for success, rather, what are the ideas to re-orient the solar PV business?
The first option could be to shut down 50 percent of production till price recovers. However, this is not a realistic option. Another could be to put expansion plans on hold. Yet another option for producers would be to become the best in class in production cost, an option, which is excellent, but difficult!
Probably, the best option would be for makers to integrate downstream. This includes new demand simulation in established markets as well as developing new markets.
Dr. Wicht said: "Anticipating bottlenecks are key for solar. The next bottlenecks are the bureaucracy and installation capacity. The production capacity would not be influential. Production cost and downstream integration are key." He advised solar PV producers to monitor their PV market demand and supply situation regularly.
Saturday, January 3, 2009
Reviewing global/Indian semicon industry in 2008 -- top posts
Greetings, dear readers and friends, in the new year. May you all have all the success and prosperity in 2009!
An eventful year in semiconductors has passed by us. For me, personally, it has been a tremendous 2008, ending with Electronics Weekly of UK selecting my blog (Pradeep Chakraborty's Blog) as the world's best in the Electronic Hardware category.
Lot of people have asked me since, how it feels to be a world champion! Well, I do feel elated! However, one point, more of the congratulatory notes have come from overseas, than from India. Perhaps, it is an apt indicator of how semiconductors is perceived in India -- though, I may be wrong.
Friends have also asked me how I've managed to blog on such a difficult subject sitting in India. Simply put: It has not been easy!
First, I'm just a simple person, and not some brand name. Second, my blog does not represent any large, well known media house, or a big brand semiconductor magazine. Hence, maintaining a semicon blog, with the help of contacts from all over the world has been tough, at times. Why, some folks, with whom I wished to speak with, never even responded to my emails and requests. Quite understandable!
Third, I've only managed to blog, when I have the time, unlike many other great bloggers who post regularly (or daily)! Fourth, there have been several instances, where my location has been my weak point. I was unable to blog on several instances simply because I had no way of reaching people whom I wished to speak with, while sitting in India. And, as I said, I did get cold snubs on several instances! :) As a result, I could not present my views at specific instances, even though I dearly wanted to!
However, the unconditional and loving support and encouragement of my family, friends, well wishers, industry leaders and loyal readers such as you have helped overcome all of these deficiencies. It is only because of these people that I've managed to come this far! I hope each one of you continues to have faith in me. I shall try my best to provide you with the best information (hopefully) the global semiconductor industry has to offer.
To start off the new year, may I present, what I feel, are the top blog posts on semiconductors during 2008, as a review for the past year.
Being indisposed at the start of 2008, I only managed to pick up speed from April onward. As the year progressed, the Indian fab story with SemIndia started worsening, before finally disappearing, even as fabless India held on sttong, as did the fortunes of the global semiconductor industry, which incidentally, did look quite good till September last year.
I have arranged the blog posts, from January to December 2008, so they will present a better picture of how 2008 behaved! These posts are set in no particular order or preference, otherwise. Some of you may have your own favorites, so kindly let me know, in case those haven't made the list.
JAN 2008
Power awareness critical for chip designers
LabVIEW 8.5 delivers power of multicore processors
MAR 2008
NXP India achieves RF CMOS in single chip
VLSI as a career in India
Using 'semicon' simulation for drug discovery
APR 2008
New camps promise exciting times ahead in memory market
Indian design services to hit $10.96bn by 2010
Staying ahead of clock a habit at Magma!
MAY 2008
Dubai -- an emerging silicon oasis
Developers, go parallel, or perish, says Intel
Think AND not OR; Altera first @ 40nm FPGAs
Top 10 global semicon predictions -- where are we today
Semicon to grow 12pc in 2008
India's growing might in global semicon
JUN 2008
10-point program for Karnataka semicon policy
Has the Indian silicon wafer fab story gone astray?
Semicon half year over, what next now?
EDA as DNA of growth
JUL 2008
Semicon is no longer business as usual!
Cadence C-to-Silicon Compiler eliminates barriers to HLS adoption
Practical to take solar/PV route: Dr. Atre, Applied
AUG 2008
What India brings to the table for semicon world! And, for Japan
NAND update: Market likely to recover in H2-09
E Ink on every smart surface!
RVCE unveils Garuda super fuel-efficient car
Indian fab policy gets 12 proposals; solar dominates
SEP 2008
90pc fab investments for 300mm capacity: SEMI
Synopsys' Dr Chi-Foon Chan on India, low power design and solar
Magma's YieldManager could make solar 'rock'!
Motion sensors driving MEMS growt
BV Naidu quits SemIndia; what now of Indian fab story?
OCT 2008
Top 20 global solar photovoltaic companies
IDF Taiwan: Father of the Atom an Indian!
TI Beagle Board for Indian open source developers and hobbyists
Cadence's Virtuoso vs. Synopsys' Galaxy Custom Designer!
Synopsys' Galaxy Custom Designer tackles analog mixed signal (AMS) challenges
Solar, semi rocking in India; global semi recovery in 2010?
No fabs? So?? Fabless India shines brightly!!
NOV 2008
AMD's roadmap 2009 provides lots of answers... now, to deliver!
Embedded computing -- 15mn devices not so far away!
FPGAs have adopted Moore's Law more closely!
DEC 2008
My blog is the world's best!
Semicon outlook 2009: Global market could be down 7pc or more
Altera on FPGAs outlook for 2009
Solar sunburn likely in 2009? India, are you listening
Outlook for solar photovoltaics in 2009!
I found it difficult to select the Top 10 posts. If any one of you can draw up such a list, it'd be great!
An eventful year in semiconductors has passed by us. For me, personally, it has been a tremendous 2008, ending with Electronics Weekly of UK selecting my blog (Pradeep Chakraborty's Blog) as the world's best in the Electronic Hardware category.Lot of people have asked me since, how it feels to be a world champion! Well, I do feel elated! However, one point, more of the congratulatory notes have come from overseas, than from India. Perhaps, it is an apt indicator of how semiconductors is perceived in India -- though, I may be wrong.
Friends have also asked me how I've managed to blog on such a difficult subject sitting in India. Simply put: It has not been easy!
First, I'm just a simple person, and not some brand name. Second, my blog does not represent any large, well known media house, or a big brand semiconductor magazine. Hence, maintaining a semicon blog, with the help of contacts from all over the world has been tough, at times. Why, some folks, with whom I wished to speak with, never even responded to my emails and requests. Quite understandable!
Third, I've only managed to blog, when I have the time, unlike many other great bloggers who post regularly (or daily)! Fourth, there have been several instances, where my location has been my weak point. I was unable to blog on several instances simply because I had no way of reaching people whom I wished to speak with, while sitting in India. And, as I said, I did get cold snubs on several instances! :) As a result, I could not present my views at specific instances, even though I dearly wanted to!
However, the unconditional and loving support and encouragement of my family, friends, well wishers, industry leaders and loyal readers such as you have helped overcome all of these deficiencies. It is only because of these people that I've managed to come this far! I hope each one of you continues to have faith in me. I shall try my best to provide you with the best information (hopefully) the global semiconductor industry has to offer.
To start off the new year, may I present, what I feel, are the top blog posts on semiconductors during 2008, as a review for the past year.
Being indisposed at the start of 2008, I only managed to pick up speed from April onward. As the year progressed, the Indian fab story with SemIndia started worsening, before finally disappearing, even as fabless India held on sttong, as did the fortunes of the global semiconductor industry, which incidentally, did look quite good till September last year.
I have arranged the blog posts, from January to December 2008, so they will present a better picture of how 2008 behaved! These posts are set in no particular order or preference, otherwise. Some of you may have your own favorites, so kindly let me know, in case those haven't made the list.
JAN 2008
Power awareness critical for chip designers
LabVIEW 8.5 delivers power of multicore processors
MAR 2008
NXP India achieves RF CMOS in single chip
VLSI as a career in India
Using 'semicon' simulation for drug discovery
APR 2008
New camps promise exciting times ahead in memory market
Indian design services to hit $10.96bn by 2010
Staying ahead of clock a habit at Magma!
MAY 2008
Dubai -- an emerging silicon oasis
Developers, go parallel, or perish, says Intel
Think AND not OR; Altera first @ 40nm FPGAs
Top 10 global semicon predictions -- where are we today
Semicon to grow 12pc in 2008
India's growing might in global semicon
JUN 2008
10-point program for Karnataka semicon policy
Has the Indian silicon wafer fab story gone astray?
Semicon half year over, what next now?
EDA as DNA of growth
JUL 2008
Semicon is no longer business as usual!
Cadence C-to-Silicon Compiler eliminates barriers to HLS adoption
Practical to take solar/PV route: Dr. Atre, Applied
AUG 2008
What India brings to the table for semicon world! And, for Japan
NAND update: Market likely to recover in H2-09
E Ink on every smart surface!
RVCE unveils Garuda super fuel-efficient car
Indian fab policy gets 12 proposals; solar dominates
SEP 2008
90pc fab investments for 300mm capacity: SEMI
Synopsys' Dr Chi-Foon Chan on India, low power design and solar
Magma's YieldManager could make solar 'rock'!
Motion sensors driving MEMS growt
BV Naidu quits SemIndia; what now of Indian fab story?
OCT 2008
Top 20 global solar photovoltaic companies
IDF Taiwan: Father of the Atom an Indian!
TI Beagle Board for Indian open source developers and hobbyists
Cadence's Virtuoso vs. Synopsys' Galaxy Custom Designer!
Synopsys' Galaxy Custom Designer tackles analog mixed signal (AMS) challenges
Solar, semi rocking in India; global semi recovery in 2010?
No fabs? So?? Fabless India shines brightly!!
NOV 2008
AMD's roadmap 2009 provides lots of answers... now, to deliver!
Embedded computing -- 15mn devices not so far away!
FPGAs have adopted Moore's Law more closely!
DEC 2008
My blog is the world's best!
Semicon outlook 2009: Global market could be down 7pc or more
Altera on FPGAs outlook for 2009
Solar sunburn likely in 2009? India, are you listening
Outlook for solar photovoltaics in 2009!
I found it difficult to select the Top 10 posts. If any one of you can draw up such a list, it'd be great!
Wednesday, December 31, 2008
Outlook for solar photovoltaics in 2009!
Friends and dear readers, this is my last blog post for 2008! Indeed, what a year this has been!!
Let me bid this year goodbye with a general outlook on the global solar photovoltaics industry for 2009.
iSuppli had recently put out a report on solar eclipse coming in 2009! I had blogged about the possible solar sunburn ahead, as well, earlier last week!
Another point that has interested me is: what happens to the top 20 global solar photovoltaic companies, based on iSuppli's analysis! This blog post has perhaps been the most popular in recent times.
I was very lucky to re-associate with Dr. Henning Wicht, Senior Director, Principal Analyst, iSuppli Deutschland GmbH, in Munich, Germany, for this discussion, thanks to the efforts of Jon Cassell and Debra Jaramilla!
How bad is solar?
The first and the most obvious question: how bad is the global solar market right now and why?
According to iSuppli, bringing an end to eight consecutive years of growth, global revenue for photovoltaic (PV), panels is likely to plunge by nearly 20 percent in 2009, as a massive oversupply causes prices to drop!
Worldwide revenue from shipments of panels will decline to $12.9 billion in 2009, down 19.1 percent from $15.9 billion in 2008. A drop of this magnitude has not occurred in the last 10 years and likely has not happened in the entire history of the solar industry.
Dr. Henning Wicht says that the upstream part of the solar business (cell, module, etc.) will suffer from price decline due to strong oversupply. The downstream side will benefit (installation, end-user, investor, etc.) by lower system prices.
Therefore, what can the solar players do to get over this coming bad phase in 2009? Well, three things: improve the cost structure, improve the sales side, and diversify downstream… These points hold strong for all fully integrated and non-integrated solar panel suppliers as well. By the way, fully integrated solar panel suppliers are likely to suffer less severe losses than non-integrated competitors.
There must be some way around to to bring about some balance within the current imbalance in the demand and supply situation. While Dr. Wicht agrees this is a difficult one to answer this early, he adds that supply and demand are diverging heavily. "With the current trajectories even in 2012, 100 percent more modules are produced than installed," he says. I promise to discuss this question again with the good Dr. in another six months time.
Word of wisdom
There are various support programs in place, and it is important to know whether they will continue to remain beneficial, both to support markets to become independent sustainable and to develop the regional industry.
Dr. Wicht believes the support programs are still required and beneficial. "If China, India, Mexico and other sunny regions would start to support solar installations, that could change the picture drastically," he notes.
A note of warning for new entrants in the solar photovoltaic space! Be aware that this warning has been earlier highlighted in the global semiconductor outlook for 2009! In tune with what the various analysts have maintained earlier, iSuppli also forsees newcomers in the solar photovoltaic line having problems in getting the required credit for their projects.
What next for Europe, emerging regions?
According to iSuppli, the short-term boost in demand from Spain and Germany has kept the installation companies busy, and solar orders and module prices high. But this boom is over. So, what's next for European players?
According to Dr. Wicht, Germany and Spain should continue their leading role as solar installation regions, even after the boom. France, Italy and Czech Republic are attractive, but still much smaller markets, he maintains.
iSuppli has also mentioned that the race to larger manufacturing scale comes to an end when the production is not sold anymore! In that case, what's the case for the emerging nations, like China and India? Aren't there buyers in such places?
Dr. Wicht says: "Demand in the traditional solar markets is not elastic enough to absorb all of the solar production. Potential new markets, for example, China and India, do not yet have installation capacities and administration to significantly change the global solar demand short term."
iSuppli also feels that the newer Chinese and Taiwanese suppliers will be hit particularly hard during 2009. The reason being, many suppliers have expanded their production capacities heavily without securing equally the sales/downstream part.
Global top 20 rankings to change?
Now to the most interesting part! Most of you have read about the top 20 global solar photovoltaic suppliers. Following the iSuppli warning of a 'solar eclipse' in 2009, there is every likelihood that there will be changes in that table!
Dr. Wicht adds, "However, the top 10 companies are typically better placed than the competition regarding their cost structures, downstream integration and vertical integration."
Obama's solar plans!
Now on to yet other interesting point! The US President-elect, Barack Obama's, New Energy for America plan could well have a significant impact on the US solar industry.
The plan's provisions include:
• A federal renewable portfolio standard (RPS) that requires 10 percent of electricity consumed in the US to come from renewable sources by 2012.
• A $150 billion investment over 10 years in research, technology demonstration and commercial deployment of clean energy technology.
• Extension of production tax credits for five years to encourage renewable energy production.
• A cap-and-trade system of carbon credits to provide an incentive for businesses to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Dr. Wicht says: "We all know that Obama is in favor of renewable energy. However, he will not change a 160 percent oversupply of solar panels in 2009."
Bumpy ride to grid parity?
On another note, and a pretty favorite one: Is it going to be a "bumpy road" to grid parity? How will the subsidies be kept going?
Dr. Wicht notes: "Subsidies will continue. It will always be a bumby road because the ramping cycles differ heavily among silicon, cells, modules and the installation capacity. Please remember that the installation business will now benefit from low module prices. It will recover some of the margins it has lost in the last years due to high module prices."
Also, up to when will polysilicon constraints last? iSuppli had earlier indicated PV strategy changes. According to Dr. Wicht, the polysilicon prices are coming down already. "Our indication from October 2008 seems to be fairly good," he says.
Lastly, will iSuppli be still sticking by solar, semicon investments being equal by 2010?
Dr. Wicht says: "Please let me cite again our interview in October: The investments for solar production raising up to several hundreds of Mio USD, up to 1 Bio $ per production site. That is coming close to a semiconductor fab. The total capex of semiconductor is still 10 times larger than PV. However, PV is rising much faster."
That will be all for this year, folks!
Look forward to sharing much more captivating moments in semiconductors, electronics, solar photovoltaics, telecom, etc., in 2009!
Wishing all of you a very happy, prosperous and successful 2009. Be safe and look after yourself! See you next year!! :)
Let me bid this year goodbye with a general outlook on the global solar photovoltaics industry for 2009.
iSuppli had recently put out a report on solar eclipse coming in 2009! I had blogged about the possible solar sunburn ahead, as well, earlier last week!
Another point that has interested me is: what happens to the top 20 global solar photovoltaic companies, based on iSuppli's analysis! This blog post has perhaps been the most popular in recent times.
I was very lucky to re-associate with Dr. Henning Wicht, Senior Director, Principal Analyst, iSuppli Deutschland GmbH, in Munich, Germany, for this discussion, thanks to the efforts of Jon Cassell and Debra Jaramilla!How bad is solar?
The first and the most obvious question: how bad is the global solar market right now and why?
According to iSuppli, bringing an end to eight consecutive years of growth, global revenue for photovoltaic (PV), panels is likely to plunge by nearly 20 percent in 2009, as a massive oversupply causes prices to drop!
Worldwide revenue from shipments of panels will decline to $12.9 billion in 2009, down 19.1 percent from $15.9 billion in 2008. A drop of this magnitude has not occurred in the last 10 years and likely has not happened in the entire history of the solar industry.
Dr. Henning Wicht says that the upstream part of the solar business (cell, module, etc.) will suffer from price decline due to strong oversupply. The downstream side will benefit (installation, end-user, investor, etc.) by lower system prices.
Therefore, what can the solar players do to get over this coming bad phase in 2009? Well, three things: improve the cost structure, improve the sales side, and diversify downstream… These points hold strong for all fully integrated and non-integrated solar panel suppliers as well. By the way, fully integrated solar panel suppliers are likely to suffer less severe losses than non-integrated competitors.
There must be some way around to to bring about some balance within the current imbalance in the demand and supply situation. While Dr. Wicht agrees this is a difficult one to answer this early, he adds that supply and demand are diverging heavily. "With the current trajectories even in 2012, 100 percent more modules are produced than installed," he says. I promise to discuss this question again with the good Dr. in another six months time.
Word of wisdom
There are various support programs in place, and it is important to know whether they will continue to remain beneficial, both to support markets to become independent sustainable and to develop the regional industry.
Dr. Wicht believes the support programs are still required and beneficial. "If China, India, Mexico and other sunny regions would start to support solar installations, that could change the picture drastically," he notes.
A note of warning for new entrants in the solar photovoltaic space! Be aware that this warning has been earlier highlighted in the global semiconductor outlook for 2009! In tune with what the various analysts have maintained earlier, iSuppli also forsees newcomers in the solar photovoltaic line having problems in getting the required credit for their projects.
What next for Europe, emerging regions?
According to iSuppli, the short-term boost in demand from Spain and Germany has kept the installation companies busy, and solar orders and module prices high. But this boom is over. So, what's next for European players?
According to Dr. Wicht, Germany and Spain should continue their leading role as solar installation regions, even after the boom. France, Italy and Czech Republic are attractive, but still much smaller markets, he maintains.
iSuppli has also mentioned that the race to larger manufacturing scale comes to an end when the production is not sold anymore! In that case, what's the case for the emerging nations, like China and India? Aren't there buyers in such places?
Dr. Wicht says: "Demand in the traditional solar markets is not elastic enough to absorb all of the solar production. Potential new markets, for example, China and India, do not yet have installation capacities and administration to significantly change the global solar demand short term."
iSuppli also feels that the newer Chinese and Taiwanese suppliers will be hit particularly hard during 2009. The reason being, many suppliers have expanded their production capacities heavily without securing equally the sales/downstream part.
Global top 20 rankings to change?
Now to the most interesting part! Most of you have read about the top 20 global solar photovoltaic suppliers. Following the iSuppli warning of a 'solar eclipse' in 2009, there is every likelihood that there will be changes in that table!
Dr. Wicht adds, "However, the top 10 companies are typically better placed than the competition regarding their cost structures, downstream integration and vertical integration."
Obama's solar plans!
Now on to yet other interesting point! The US President-elect, Barack Obama's, New Energy for America plan could well have a significant impact on the US solar industry.
The plan's provisions include:
• A federal renewable portfolio standard (RPS) that requires 10 percent of electricity consumed in the US to come from renewable sources by 2012.
• A $150 billion investment over 10 years in research, technology demonstration and commercial deployment of clean energy technology.
• Extension of production tax credits for five years to encourage renewable energy production.
• A cap-and-trade system of carbon credits to provide an incentive for businesses to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Dr. Wicht says: "We all know that Obama is in favor of renewable energy. However, he will not change a 160 percent oversupply of solar panels in 2009."
Bumpy ride to grid parity?
On another note, and a pretty favorite one: Is it going to be a "bumpy road" to grid parity? How will the subsidies be kept going?
Dr. Wicht notes: "Subsidies will continue. It will always be a bumby road because the ramping cycles differ heavily among silicon, cells, modules and the installation capacity. Please remember that the installation business will now benefit from low module prices. It will recover some of the margins it has lost in the last years due to high module prices."
Also, up to when will polysilicon constraints last? iSuppli had earlier indicated PV strategy changes. According to Dr. Wicht, the polysilicon prices are coming down already. "Our indication from October 2008 seems to be fairly good," he says.
Lastly, will iSuppli be still sticking by solar, semicon investments being equal by 2010?
Dr. Wicht says: "Please let me cite again our interview in October: The investments for solar production raising up to several hundreds of Mio USD, up to 1 Bio $ per production site. That is coming close to a semiconductor fab. The total capex of semiconductor is still 10 times larger than PV. However, PV is rising much faster."
That will be all for this year, folks!
Look forward to sharing much more captivating moments in semiconductors, electronics, solar photovoltaics, telecom, etc., in 2009!
Wishing all of you a very happy, prosperous and successful 2009. Be safe and look after yourself! See you next year!! :)
Tuesday, October 14, 2008
Top 20 global solar photovoltaic companies
Alright folks! This has taken some time coming, but it is worth the wait! Presenting the Top 20 solar photovoltaic companies during Q1-2008. May I add here that I am extremely grateful to iSuppli's Jon Cassell for giving me this opportunity.
I was also fortunate enough to discuss this table with Dr. Henning Wicht, Senior Director, Principal Analyst, iSuppli Deutschland GmbH, in Munich, Germany.
Parameters for rankings
First up, what were the parameters used by iSuppli to determine the top 20? According to Dr. Wicht, the top 20 cell-companies have been ranked by production in 2007 and by announced production capacity 2010. He clarified, "Ranking by revenue is not applicable because many integrated manufactures publish compound revenues for cells, modules and systems."
Yes, there have been several announcements in the solar/PV space, in India, and globally, and some names could be missing here. However, the new cell manufacturing projects will be included as soon as they are announced.
Coming back to the topic, it is necessary to examine the role of subsidies. While photovoltaics have been getting cheaper, Dr. Wicht said that subsidies were still necessary to support the PV markets. "It shows that the time grid parity shortens faster than expected earlier. As an example, for Germany, the grid parity might be achieved in 2015, which is two years earlier than expected in 2007."
That is to say, the support programs are benefical, both to support markets to become independent sustainable and to develop the regional industry.
Global interest in solar/PV
Critically, there seems to have developed a sudden interest in solar/PV, starting late 2007, when this (solar) has been around for some time. How has this happened?
According to Dr. Wicht, raising CO2 levels generated through fossil energy, CO2 certificates, rising prices of fossil fuels, political dependency from oil exporting countries drove the Kyoto protocol to reduce CO2.
"Renewable energy is a major pillar to achieve that goal. European governments have been frontrunners to implement and execute that goal. That said, solar has been around for a while. Japan was the first significant market. However, on a global basis, it took off in Europe from 2005 onward," he noted.
With the spate of initiatives in solar/PV, can it not turn out to be a case of too many folks entering the same line?
Sure, over and undersupply happens along the supply chain! The iSuppli market research figures out imbalances, which drive prices/margins up and down.
Also, isn't there a chance of solar/PV getting commoditized, or has it already become one? Well, PV modules are a commodity product, said the analyst. The market is still in its infancy and it will continue to grow for the next 10 years and further. The overall saturation will come, but still some years to go.
Is solar helping semicon?
Some industry folks have been saying that the solar/PV initiatives are not really helping the overall semicon industry, a statement I agree with as well. Also, it may only be benefitting some of the equipment makers.
Dr. Wicht said: "Indeed, semicon fabs are not able to produce competitively solar cells and the solar need for semiconductor devices is rather low. The semiconductor companies, however diversify into PV, e.g., Qimonda with a new cell production. Intel is investing in several PV companies, LG is investing in Conergy, etc., or supplying devices for power conversion, e.g, National Semiconductor. However, the overall impact on the semicon devices market is rather low!
Solar, semicon on par?
iSuppli made a forecast some time back regarding investments in solar and semiconductors being on par by 2010.
The investments for solar cell production raising up to several hundreds of Mio USD, up to 1 Bio $ per production site. That is coming close to a semiconductor fab. The total capex of semiconductor is still 10 times larger than PV. However, PV is rising much faster.
I was also fortunate enough to discuss this table with Dr. Henning Wicht, Senior Director, Principal Analyst, iSuppli Deutschland GmbH, in Munich, Germany.
Parameters for rankingsFirst up, what were the parameters used by iSuppli to determine the top 20? According to Dr. Wicht, the top 20 cell-companies have been ranked by production in 2007 and by announced production capacity 2010. He clarified, "Ranking by revenue is not applicable because many integrated manufactures publish compound revenues for cells, modules and systems."
Yes, there have been several announcements in the solar/PV space, in India, and globally, and some names could be missing here. However, the new cell manufacturing projects will be included as soon as they are announced.
Coming back to the topic, it is necessary to examine the role of subsidies. While photovoltaics have been getting cheaper, Dr. Wicht said that subsidies were still necessary to support the PV markets. "It shows that the time grid parity shortens faster than expected earlier. As an example, for Germany, the grid parity might be achieved in 2015, which is two years earlier than expected in 2007."
That is to say, the support programs are benefical, both to support markets to become independent sustainable and to develop the regional industry.
Global interest in solar/PV
Critically, there seems to have developed a sudden interest in solar/PV, starting late 2007, when this (solar) has been around for some time. How has this happened?
According to Dr. Wicht, raising CO2 levels generated through fossil energy, CO2 certificates, rising prices of fossil fuels, political dependency from oil exporting countries drove the Kyoto protocol to reduce CO2.
"Renewable energy is a major pillar to achieve that goal. European governments have been frontrunners to implement and execute that goal. That said, solar has been around for a while. Japan was the first significant market. However, on a global basis, it took off in Europe from 2005 onward," he noted.
With the spate of initiatives in solar/PV, can it not turn out to be a case of too many folks entering the same line?
Sure, over and undersupply happens along the supply chain! The iSuppli market research figures out imbalances, which drive prices/margins up and down.
Also, isn't there a chance of solar/PV getting commoditized, or has it already become one? Well, PV modules are a commodity product, said the analyst. The market is still in its infancy and it will continue to grow for the next 10 years and further. The overall saturation will come, but still some years to go.
Is solar helping semicon?
Some industry folks have been saying that the solar/PV initiatives are not really helping the overall semicon industry, a statement I agree with as well. Also, it may only be benefitting some of the equipment makers.
Dr. Wicht said: "Indeed, semicon fabs are not able to produce competitively solar cells and the solar need for semiconductor devices is rather low. The semiconductor companies, however diversify into PV, e.g., Qimonda with a new cell production. Intel is investing in several PV companies, LG is investing in Conergy, etc., or supplying devices for power conversion, e.g, National Semiconductor. However, the overall impact on the semicon devices market is rather low!
Solar, semicon on par?
iSuppli made a forecast some time back regarding investments in solar and semiconductors being on par by 2010.
The investments for solar cell production raising up to several hundreds of Mio USD, up to 1 Bio $ per production site. That is coming close to a semiconductor fab. The total capex of semiconductor is still 10 times larger than PV. However, PV is rising much faster.
Monday, September 22, 2008
Building a good solar ecosystem in India
Solar/PV has been doing the rounds consistently, and has probably now become one of the most hyped sectors.
In fact, renewable energy has never ever had such a good time! As mentioned, a tremendous hype has already been built around solar photovoltaics. Several companies, in India, and elsewhere, have also jumped into the solar bandwagon.
So what are the reasons behind this 'sudden' interest in solar? According to Dr. Ashok Das, managing director, Solar Solutions, and a well know expert in this area, consumers do not yet drive the solar energy sector. Being energy, it is mostly driven by the government and its subsidies.
So, why has there been this 'sudden interest' in solar? There are two reasons.
First, the climate change issue started getting center stage at world forums, leading to policies and targets to cut global warming, and hence boosting renewable energy. Second, the soaring oil prices and continued dependence on a few countries for oil has led to the realization of the energy security.
There are several takeaways from the European experience with solar. Dr. Das says that Europe, particularly, has taken solar very seriously. They have been a leader in solar. "Germany, for instance, gave away all of the necessary subsidies to attain energy security. These subsidies have led to the solar boom. It has also led to an increased R&D to bring down the cost of solar energy."
Nevertheless, he adds there seems to be a bubble forming in this sector, like all other booms in the past. The industry will go through consolidation as the market matures.
And where does India stand in comparison? According to Dr. Das, steps are being taken to promote solar energy in India. "As of now, the feed-in tariff is Rs. 15 for photovoltaics and Rs. 12 for thermal solar. The government also announced a mandatory 5 percent renewable energy mix in the electricity production.
"The PMO (Prime Minister's Office) has also issued a National Action Plan that has plans for boosting solar. These subsidies are driving some of the increased activities in India."
He contends: "We need stronger lobbying so that better subsidies can come through. Therefore, most of the manufacturing activities in India are still driven by the export markets."
Surely, given the surge of investments in solar within India, there is every room for developing a very good ecosystem.
Dr. Das says: "Coming to the solar ecosystem, we already make solar products, as well as the modules. We also have the capability to make cells. The only part missing has been wafer, the silicon for solar.
"A few silicon factories should be coming up in India soon. So, India can easily establish the entire ecosystem for solar photovoltaics."
Postscript: More investments in solar today, in India. According to Hindu Business Line, there have been three additional investments worth Rs. 55,000 crores.
Vavasi Telegence to invest Rs 39,000 crore for solar PV and polysilicon unit; EPV Solar to invest Rs 4,000 crore for solar PV unit; and Lanco Solar to invest Rs 12,938-crore for solar PV and polysilicon unit.
A word of caution: It's advisable not to get carried away by all the success in solar. Solar is/was only part of the ecosystem units in the Indian semicon policy.
Don't forget semiconductors!
While this success in solar does augur well for the solar industry in India, don't think this is even close to what the Indian semicon policy, launched with fanfare last September, originally set out to achieve!
In fact, renewable energy has never ever had such a good time! As mentioned, a tremendous hype has already been built around solar photovoltaics. Several companies, in India, and elsewhere, have also jumped into the solar bandwagon.
So what are the reasons behind this 'sudden' interest in solar? According to Dr. Ashok Das, managing director, Solar Solutions, and a well know expert in this area, consumers do not yet drive the solar energy sector. Being energy, it is mostly driven by the government and its subsidies. So, why has there been this 'sudden interest' in solar? There are two reasons.
First, the climate change issue started getting center stage at world forums, leading to policies and targets to cut global warming, and hence boosting renewable energy. Second, the soaring oil prices and continued dependence on a few countries for oil has led to the realization of the energy security.
There are several takeaways from the European experience with solar. Dr. Das says that Europe, particularly, has taken solar very seriously. They have been a leader in solar. "Germany, for instance, gave away all of the necessary subsidies to attain energy security. These subsidies have led to the solar boom. It has also led to an increased R&D to bring down the cost of solar energy."
Nevertheless, he adds there seems to be a bubble forming in this sector, like all other booms in the past. The industry will go through consolidation as the market matures.
And where does India stand in comparison? According to Dr. Das, steps are being taken to promote solar energy in India. "As of now, the feed-in tariff is Rs. 15 for photovoltaics and Rs. 12 for thermal solar. The government also announced a mandatory 5 percent renewable energy mix in the electricity production.
"The PMO (Prime Minister's Office) has also issued a National Action Plan that has plans for boosting solar. These subsidies are driving some of the increased activities in India."
He contends: "We need stronger lobbying so that better subsidies can come through. Therefore, most of the manufacturing activities in India are still driven by the export markets."
Surely, given the surge of investments in solar within India, there is every room for developing a very good ecosystem.
Dr. Das says: "Coming to the solar ecosystem, we already make solar products, as well as the modules. We also have the capability to make cells. The only part missing has been wafer, the silicon for solar.
"A few silicon factories should be coming up in India soon. So, India can easily establish the entire ecosystem for solar photovoltaics."
Postscript: More investments in solar today, in India. According to Hindu Business Line, there have been three additional investments worth Rs. 55,000 crores.
Vavasi Telegence to invest Rs 39,000 crore for solar PV and polysilicon unit; EPV Solar to invest Rs 4,000 crore for solar PV unit; and Lanco Solar to invest Rs 12,938-crore for solar PV and polysilicon unit.
A word of caution: It's advisable not to get carried away by all the success in solar. Solar is/was only part of the ecosystem units in the Indian semicon policy.
Don't forget semiconductors!
While this success in solar does augur well for the solar industry in India, don't think this is even close to what the Indian semicon policy, launched with fanfare last September, originally set out to achieve!
Friday, September 12, 2008
Synopsys' Dr Chi-Foon Chan on India, low power design and solar
There have been reports about the troubles within the EDA industry in recent times, especially those related with quarter sales. Interestingly, Synopsys has been the one sailing along fine! If that's not enough, it made its intention known of playing a role on the solar/PV segment, an area where lot of investments have been happening!
Given this scenario, I was fortuitous enough, rather, extremely lucky to be able to get into a conversation with Dr. Chi-Foon Chan, President and Chief Operating Officer, Synopsys Inc., during his recent visit to India.
On the state of the global semiconductor industry, he said, it was somewhere now in the low 10s [well below 10 percent]. The EDA industry is currently tracking below that level. However, Synopsys has been growing at around 10 percent. He said, "The technology challenges today are very high."
Synopsys has a substantial number of R&D population based out of India. Giving his assessment of the Indian semiconductor industry, Dr. Chan added: "Our main interest in India is largely talent and the academia. India can very well get more into the product development side. Even the outsourcing of designs have increased. Our capabilities, of the Indian team, have also increased."
As with any good semiconductor ecosystem, the Indian industry also needs a proactive industry association, a role played to near perfection by the ISA (India Semiconductor Association). Acknowledging the ISA's role, Dr. Chan said, "The ISA has also formed a very cohesive team."
There is little doubt about India's growing importance in technology strengths and managerial leadership. Dr. Chan added: "We are more on the high-end side and also track what others design. In India, the profiles of designs are definitely high-end in nature. This is largely due to the presence of a large number of MNCs. A very high percentage of designs are in the 45nm and 65nm process technology nodes."
There is another significant indicator of India's growing importance, and that is the huge rise in the attendance of the SNUG. In 2000, this event attracted 180 people. However, in 2008, the SNUG attracted over 2,000 people.
Moving India to next level
Given the very high level of commitment on Synopsys' part toward India, there was a need to find out from Dr. Chan what exactly India needs to do to move to the next level in the value chain in the semiconductor ecosystem.
He advised: "India can do two to three things. One, for the system to grow, you need the government, academia and industry to grow together. India has all of the ingredients required to drive products."
Comparing India with China, he highlighted the fact that while in China, the local consumption was higher than local supply, that was not the case with India!
"Therefore, looking at merely the local market is not the only thing. Products developed here can also be targeted at the Middle East and Southeast Asia." He was quite forthright in his analysis, adding: "Industries start when you find markets. The skill sets are already present here. There can well be multiple startups."
Dr. Chan also touched upon the fab vs. fabless issue, noting that there could well be more of fabless companies in India. "Building a fab requires lot of capital. Also, consolidation will continue to happen."
What role does Dr. Chan see Synopsys playing in the Indian context? He said: "Synopsys will continue to be a catalyst for the industry. A healthy design industry in India continues to help us. We also work well with the Indian universities. Having more people from the universities will always help. We also invest a lot in application support. The application team also trains others. I now look forward to seeing more fabless companies here and India to become even more global."
On low power design
India is also a centre of expertise in low power design, given that low power is hugely important in today's electronics ecosystem. Dr. Chan commented that low power has always been the number one design issue. It cannot be taken care of at one single stage.
He added: "A slightly new concept that has emerged is low-power verification. There are so many schemes for attacking low power, such as multiple voltage islands. We (Synopsys) are spending a lot of effort in low power.
"As a designer, you require detailed analysis. Low-power verification is now coming up. Another area is testing. As an example, if so much power is required, how do you have the power cut from the tool you are using to test? From a Synopsys point of view, we are involved in several points, such as front-end synthesis, testing, sign-off, verification, etc. We are trying to put in a whole lot of methodologies."
Synopsys in solar
EDA may be able to help by lowering power requirements and leakage on better products. Especially, the Synopsys' TCAD product can be used to create more efficient and effective solar cells. Now, this is not a new development anymore. Synopsys, along with Magma, have already made known their intentions about setting foot in the solar/PV space.
On the TCAD, Dr. Chan said: "We have a very strong position in the TCAD, commercially. Now, it is one of our most critical elements in high-performance. Our TCAD is among the strongest in the EDA industry.
"In solar, it does not have to be a complicated place-and-route, etc. From an entire solar industry point of view, we have now used some effort from TCAD into this space. Heat transfer issues, etc., are more in the EDA space."
I will continue my conversation with Synopsys on its solar initiative sometime later. Keep watching this space, folks
Given this scenario, I was fortuitous enough, rather, extremely lucky to be able to get into a conversation with Dr. Chi-Foon Chan, President and Chief Operating Officer, Synopsys Inc., during his recent visit to India.On the state of the global semiconductor industry, he said, it was somewhere now in the low 10s [well below 10 percent]. The EDA industry is currently tracking below that level. However, Synopsys has been growing at around 10 percent. He said, "The technology challenges today are very high."
Synopsys has a substantial number of R&D population based out of India. Giving his assessment of the Indian semiconductor industry, Dr. Chan added: "Our main interest in India is largely talent and the academia. India can very well get more into the product development side. Even the outsourcing of designs have increased. Our capabilities, of the Indian team, have also increased."
As with any good semiconductor ecosystem, the Indian industry also needs a proactive industry association, a role played to near perfection by the ISA (India Semiconductor Association). Acknowledging the ISA's role, Dr. Chan said, "The ISA has also formed a very cohesive team."
There is little doubt about India's growing importance in technology strengths and managerial leadership. Dr. Chan added: "We are more on the high-end side and also track what others design. In India, the profiles of designs are definitely high-end in nature. This is largely due to the presence of a large number of MNCs. A very high percentage of designs are in the 45nm and 65nm process technology nodes."
There is another significant indicator of India's growing importance, and that is the huge rise in the attendance of the SNUG. In 2000, this event attracted 180 people. However, in 2008, the SNUG attracted over 2,000 people.
Moving India to next level
Given the very high level of commitment on Synopsys' part toward India, there was a need to find out from Dr. Chan what exactly India needs to do to move to the next level in the value chain in the semiconductor ecosystem.
He advised: "India can do two to three things. One, for the system to grow, you need the government, academia and industry to grow together. India has all of the ingredients required to drive products."
Comparing India with China, he highlighted the fact that while in China, the local consumption was higher than local supply, that was not the case with India!
"Therefore, looking at merely the local market is not the only thing. Products developed here can also be targeted at the Middle East and Southeast Asia." He was quite forthright in his analysis, adding: "Industries start when you find markets. The skill sets are already present here. There can well be multiple startups."
Dr. Chan also touched upon the fab vs. fabless issue, noting that there could well be more of fabless companies in India. "Building a fab requires lot of capital. Also, consolidation will continue to happen."
What role does Dr. Chan see Synopsys playing in the Indian context? He said: "Synopsys will continue to be a catalyst for the industry. A healthy design industry in India continues to help us. We also work well with the Indian universities. Having more people from the universities will always help. We also invest a lot in application support. The application team also trains others. I now look forward to seeing more fabless companies here and India to become even more global."
On low power design
India is also a centre of expertise in low power design, given that low power is hugely important in today's electronics ecosystem. Dr. Chan commented that low power has always been the number one design issue. It cannot be taken care of at one single stage.
He added: "A slightly new concept that has emerged is low-power verification. There are so many schemes for attacking low power, such as multiple voltage islands. We (Synopsys) are spending a lot of effort in low power.
"As a designer, you require detailed analysis. Low-power verification is now coming up. Another area is testing. As an example, if so much power is required, how do you have the power cut from the tool you are using to test? From a Synopsys point of view, we are involved in several points, such as front-end synthesis, testing, sign-off, verification, etc. We are trying to put in a whole lot of methodologies."
Synopsys in solar
EDA may be able to help by lowering power requirements and leakage on better products. Especially, the Synopsys' TCAD product can be used to create more efficient and effective solar cells. Now, this is not a new development anymore. Synopsys, along with Magma, have already made known their intentions about setting foot in the solar/PV space.
On the TCAD, Dr. Chan said: "We have a very strong position in the TCAD, commercially. Now, it is one of our most critical elements in high-performance. Our TCAD is among the strongest in the EDA industry.
"In solar, it does not have to be a complicated place-and-route, etc. From an entire solar industry point of view, we have now used some effort from TCAD into this space. Heat transfer issues, etc., are more in the EDA space."
I will continue my conversation with Synopsys on its solar initiative sometime later. Keep watching this space, folks
Thursday, September 11, 2008
Magma's YieldManager could make solar 'rock'!
Make no mistake, folks! The EDA guys are getting their act together to penetrate the solar/PV segment!! Magma's YieldManager is a great example of that effort! Yes, we all know the troubles of the EDA industry as well as of the key players. However, let's not ignore this initiative from Magma!
Recently, Magma Design Automation Inc. announced the development of a new yield enhancement software system, the YieldManager software system, which is customized for solar fabs to improve conversion efficiency, increase yield and reduce the manufacturing costs of solar cells.
Magma is collaborating with Pegasus Semiconductor-Solar to refine the product specifications and test the new product, based on Magma's YieldManager.
This is an interesting development, especially from the point of view of the solar/PV industry! Even more significant is the entrance of the EDA community [the one being Synopsys] into solar/PV, a segment, which has witnessed a substantial amount of investments worldwide, and specifically, in India.
It was fun catching up with Ankush Oberai, VP, Failure Analysis Business Unit, Magma Design Automation, in Silicon Valley, to find out more about the YieldManager software system, what it can do for the solar/PV industry, and why Magma decided to venture into an 'unchartered territory'.
The first and most obvious thing, why YieldManager?
Ankush Oberoi says that in semiconductors, yield impacting parameters which are regularly monitored are mostly extrinsic, i.e., from outside, such as particles, over-exposure, under-exposure and miss-processing. In solar cells, the yield impacting parameters are mostly intrinsic, that is, something built into the solar cell material which can NOT be easily seen. Thus, a different "eye" is needed to see the solar parameters. The "eye" is the YieldManager here!!!
It would NOT be either inspection tools or litho optical proximity correction (OPC) detector. The solar cell efficiency is directly influenced by electro-physics of solar materials. A YieldManger is required to monitor any changes in those efficiency impacting parameters.
The most important parameter is the lifetime of current-generating carriers. As the solar energy generates the "hole-electron" pairs, they are collected separately as electricity.
If the solar material is "dirty" with many crystalline boundaries as in thin film solar cells, the solar generated hole-electrons get pulled into those crystalline boundaries and do not contribute to the electricity generation.
"Thus, if we can find a solar yield management system to detect the very subtle change in carrier lifetime, then we are at home with a greatest Home Run in solar cell business," he contends.
Given the EDA background, why did Magma decide on a yield management technology?
He adds that yield management technology was acquired by Magma as part of the Knights Technology acquisition in Nov 2006. Magma's Fab Business Unit (formerly, Knights Technology) is a pioneer (since 1994) in yield management for semiconductor technology.
The product is deployed and used in leading fabs around the world to help manage production wafer yield. Yield management has also been deployed for mask making and LCD productions.
It would be interesting to know how Magma's new product will allow solar fabs to better monitor all metrology, inspection and performance data throughout the manufacturing process.
Oberoi says: "For Si wafer solar cell, the most important parameter to monitor is the solar conversion efficiency impacting parameters. An example would be a carrier lifetime.
"If the carrier lifetime fluctuates more than normal, the solar Yield Manager will quickly examine all of the key data, i.e., metrology, inspection and performance data, to pinpoint out potential root-causes of the fluctuation problem."
For thin film solar cell, particles, laser cutting integrity and film thickness uniformity would be main things to monitor. Those data are quite similarly collected, as in semiconductors, and would be monitored as similar ways. The Solar Yield Manager would do well as proven in semiconductors in this case.
Next, it is important to find out how will the YieldManager enable fab operators to identify and correct root causes of solar-efficiency and yield degradation caused by subtle fab processing fluctuations or instability.
According to Oberoi, the carrier lifetime, which could be caused by various factors, is the most critical parameter to monitor for achieving and maintaining the good solar conversion efficiency.
He says: "As the Solar Yield Manager carefully monitors those factors, blindly committing ~400,000 wafers a day can be eliminated, when critical process instability starts appearing and persists. The solar conversion efficiency impacting factors could be monitored differently by different solar fabs."
Some fabs may not have capabilities to monitor those factors. The Solar Yield Manager would define those metrology and performance tool requirements, when released.
It is also interesting to learn how improving the energy conversion efficiency, reducing the manufacturing costs and increasing the yield of silicon wafer-based solar cells are critical to the growth of the solar market.
Currently, the Si wafer for solar cell costs $2~$2.5/watt due to the severe shortage of Si. The selling price of a solar cell is $3~$3.5/watt, that is, the material cost is 60~70 percent of the solar cell price.
No market or industry would prevail with the 60~70 percent material cost, adds Oberoi. Thus, every milli-watt squeezed out of a solar cell would be very critically important for proliferation of solar industry.
In order to increase the power output of a solar cell, the solar conversion efficiency must be maximized. Once maximized, sustaining the good solar efficiency is the name of the game in the solar cell manufacturing business.
The effective manufacturing cost will be drastically lowered, if bad solar cells with poor solar efficiency is minimally produced. That is, some fabs will use ~400,000 wafers a day to generate ~500 M-Watt a year, whereas some ~450,000 wafers to do the same with poorer solar efficiency.
Innovation in the solar fabrication process must be accelerated, and today, no other enterprise-wide yield enhancement software exists for solar fabs.
Oberoi says: "Solar cell is an old technology, but a very new industry, simply because not enough money was being invested. Now, money is pouring into the solar industry and products like solar Yield will start to appear. It is not known yet that anyone commercially has tried to develop a similar product."
Global estimate of solar/PV industry
There are several publications with recent estimates. The annual solar cell installation in the world: Germany ~46 percent, Japan ~23 percent, USA ~9 percent, Spain ~6 percent, Italy ~4 percent, the rest of Europe ~1 percent, the rest of Asia, including India and China ~6 percent, and the rest of world ~5 percent in 2006.
Magma is currently in the design and implementation stages of the product and plan to have version 1.0 of the product commercially available in Q1-09. The company has targeted solar fabs based in Asia that are eager for early implementation of the solar yield product.
Right then: those planning or having solar fabs! Now's the time to test that home run theory with the YieldManager.
Recently, Magma Design Automation Inc. announced the development of a new yield enhancement software system, the YieldManager software system, which is customized for solar fabs to improve conversion efficiency, increase yield and reduce the manufacturing costs of solar cells.
Magma is collaborating with Pegasus Semiconductor-Solar to refine the product specifications and test the new product, based on Magma's YieldManager.
This is an interesting development, especially from the point of view of the solar/PV industry! Even more significant is the entrance of the EDA community [the one being Synopsys] into solar/PV, a segment, which has witnessed a substantial amount of investments worldwide, and specifically, in India.
It was fun catching up with Ankush Oberai, VP, Failure Analysis Business Unit, Magma Design Automation, in Silicon Valley, to find out more about the YieldManager software system, what it can do for the solar/PV industry, and why Magma decided to venture into an 'unchartered territory'.The first and most obvious thing, why YieldManager?
Ankush Oberoi says that in semiconductors, yield impacting parameters which are regularly monitored are mostly extrinsic, i.e., from outside, such as particles, over-exposure, under-exposure and miss-processing. In solar cells, the yield impacting parameters are mostly intrinsic, that is, something built into the solar cell material which can NOT be easily seen. Thus, a different "eye" is needed to see the solar parameters. The "eye" is the YieldManager here!!!
It would NOT be either inspection tools or litho optical proximity correction (OPC) detector. The solar cell efficiency is directly influenced by electro-physics of solar materials. A YieldManger is required to monitor any changes in those efficiency impacting parameters.
The most important parameter is the lifetime of current-generating carriers. As the solar energy generates the "hole-electron" pairs, they are collected separately as electricity.
If the solar material is "dirty" with many crystalline boundaries as in thin film solar cells, the solar generated hole-electrons get pulled into those crystalline boundaries and do not contribute to the electricity generation.
"Thus, if we can find a solar yield management system to detect the very subtle change in carrier lifetime, then we are at home with a greatest Home Run in solar cell business," he contends.
Given the EDA background, why did Magma decide on a yield management technology?
He adds that yield management technology was acquired by Magma as part of the Knights Technology acquisition in Nov 2006. Magma's Fab Business Unit (formerly, Knights Technology) is a pioneer (since 1994) in yield management for semiconductor technology.
The product is deployed and used in leading fabs around the world to help manage production wafer yield. Yield management has also been deployed for mask making and LCD productions.
It would be interesting to know how Magma's new product will allow solar fabs to better monitor all metrology, inspection and performance data throughout the manufacturing process.
Oberoi says: "For Si wafer solar cell, the most important parameter to monitor is the solar conversion efficiency impacting parameters. An example would be a carrier lifetime.
"If the carrier lifetime fluctuates more than normal, the solar Yield Manager will quickly examine all of the key data, i.e., metrology, inspection and performance data, to pinpoint out potential root-causes of the fluctuation problem."
For thin film solar cell, particles, laser cutting integrity and film thickness uniformity would be main things to monitor. Those data are quite similarly collected, as in semiconductors, and would be monitored as similar ways. The Solar Yield Manager would do well as proven in semiconductors in this case.
Next, it is important to find out how will the YieldManager enable fab operators to identify and correct root causes of solar-efficiency and yield degradation caused by subtle fab processing fluctuations or instability.
According to Oberoi, the carrier lifetime, which could be caused by various factors, is the most critical parameter to monitor for achieving and maintaining the good solar conversion efficiency.
He says: "As the Solar Yield Manager carefully monitors those factors, blindly committing ~400,000 wafers a day can be eliminated, when critical process instability starts appearing and persists. The solar conversion efficiency impacting factors could be monitored differently by different solar fabs."
Some fabs may not have capabilities to monitor those factors. The Solar Yield Manager would define those metrology and performance tool requirements, when released.
It is also interesting to learn how improving the energy conversion efficiency, reducing the manufacturing costs and increasing the yield of silicon wafer-based solar cells are critical to the growth of the solar market.
Currently, the Si wafer for solar cell costs $2~$2.5/watt due to the severe shortage of Si. The selling price of a solar cell is $3~$3.5/watt, that is, the material cost is 60~70 percent of the solar cell price.
No market or industry would prevail with the 60~70 percent material cost, adds Oberoi. Thus, every milli-watt squeezed out of a solar cell would be very critically important for proliferation of solar industry.
In order to increase the power output of a solar cell, the solar conversion efficiency must be maximized. Once maximized, sustaining the good solar efficiency is the name of the game in the solar cell manufacturing business.
The effective manufacturing cost will be drastically lowered, if bad solar cells with poor solar efficiency is minimally produced. That is, some fabs will use ~400,000 wafers a day to generate ~500 M-Watt a year, whereas some ~450,000 wafers to do the same with poorer solar efficiency.
Innovation in the solar fabrication process must be accelerated, and today, no other enterprise-wide yield enhancement software exists for solar fabs.
Oberoi says: "Solar cell is an old technology, but a very new industry, simply because not enough money was being invested. Now, money is pouring into the solar industry and products like solar Yield will start to appear. It is not known yet that anyone commercially has tried to develop a similar product."
Global estimate of solar/PV industry
There are several publications with recent estimates. The annual solar cell installation in the world: Germany ~46 percent, Japan ~23 percent, USA ~9 percent, Spain ~6 percent, Italy ~4 percent, the rest of Europe ~1 percent, the rest of Asia, including India and China ~6 percent, and the rest of world ~5 percent in 2006.
Magma is currently in the design and implementation stages of the product and plan to have version 1.0 of the product commercially available in Q1-09. The company has targeted solar fabs based in Asia that are eager for early implementation of the solar yield product.
Right then: those planning or having solar fabs! Now's the time to test that home run theory with the YieldManager.
Thursday, April 26, 2007
Solar and wind solutions, micro fuel cells as energy alternatives
Precisely! That's the way the future of energy would likely be, should the industry manage to pull it off. These folks are really working hard to develop alternative energy sources to power a whole lot of equipment and devices.
The other day, we were discussing energy, when the subject of fuel cells cropped up. With electronics items and other equipment constantly undergoing design changes, thereby putting even more demand on battery power. Several alternative energy solutions are constantly being developed.
In fact, Motorola reports to have successfully conducted a year-long wind- and solar-powered cell site at its Swindon R&D facility in the UK. The trial concluded that an optimized solar and wind solution can generate enough power to drive a mid-sized base station (BTS) plus ancillaries. The next step would be a commercial customer trial using a six-carrier BTS cell site, being implemented in the first half of 2007.
I believe, nearly all mobile phone manufacturers, including Motorola, are also developing solar-powered handsets.
Coming back to power, the existing battery chemistries are constantly challenged to maintain performance levels or maybe, extend beyong the existing levels. While solar and wind solutions are among the options, fuel cells and even micro fuel cells are also in the fray.
Now, Frost & Sullivan's report titled World Micro Fuel Cell Market for Industrial Portable Devices, finds that the market is likely to produce 75 million units by 2013, demonstrating a high market growth rate due to a ramp-up in commercialization. The micro fuel cell market for industrial portable devices has gained a boost with the significant growth of the heavy-duty device markets.
The report says that fuel cells for such devices should be able to operate safely for long periods under inclement weather and dusty conditions. They must be resistant to high shock and vibration, while surviving drops on hard surfaces as well.
The market is addressing the fuel cell standard concern by forming groups within prominent international standards organizations such as the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC), dealing with electrical, electronic and related technologies.
The other day, we were discussing energy, when the subject of fuel cells cropped up. With electronics items and other equipment constantly undergoing design changes, thereby putting even more demand on battery power. Several alternative energy solutions are constantly being developed.
In fact, Motorola reports to have successfully conducted a year-long wind- and solar-powered cell site at its Swindon R&D facility in the UK. The trial concluded that an optimized solar and wind solution can generate enough power to drive a mid-sized base station (BTS) plus ancillaries. The next step would be a commercial customer trial using a six-carrier BTS cell site, being implemented in the first half of 2007.
I believe, nearly all mobile phone manufacturers, including Motorola, are also developing solar-powered handsets.
Coming back to power, the existing battery chemistries are constantly challenged to maintain performance levels or maybe, extend beyong the existing levels. While solar and wind solutions are among the options, fuel cells and even micro fuel cells are also in the fray.
Now, Frost & Sullivan's report titled World Micro Fuel Cell Market for Industrial Portable Devices, finds that the market is likely to produce 75 million units by 2013, demonstrating a high market growth rate due to a ramp-up in commercialization. The micro fuel cell market for industrial portable devices has gained a boost with the significant growth of the heavy-duty device markets.
The report says that fuel cells for such devices should be able to operate safely for long periods under inclement weather and dusty conditions. They must be resistant to high shock and vibration, while surviving drops on hard surfaces as well.
The market is addressing the fuel cell standard concern by forming groups within prominent international standards organizations such as the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC), dealing with electrical, electronic and related technologies.
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