The PC industry will be influenced by tablet PCs and indicates the growing pattern. We expect that it will re-shape the industry.
2011 tablet PC will increase 237.5 percent YoY in 2011
According to DRAMeXchange, after launch in April, iPad shipment has already reached 7.5 million units by 3Q10. Other vendors will also aggressively penetrate into this market and we are carefully watching that if other vendors can compete with iPad in hardware and software manners.
Source: DRAMeXchange.DRAMeXchange thinks that the iPad will account more than 95 percent market share given the better integration of software and hardware and total tablet PC shipment will be around 15.2 million units in 2011.
The 2011 tablet shipment is expected to be 51.3 million units since more products will be ready for the market. However, iPad is forecast to account more than 80 percent market share since most non-iPad tablet will be ready in 2H11.
Non-iOS surged in a dramatically path. Android market app volume has exceeded 100K, far beyond the 300K for apple app store. However, it still shows the threat to iPad.
2011 notebooks (netbooks included) is limited with 15.4 percent YoY
DRAMeXchange thinks that 15-20 percent tablet PCs will cannibalize the original notebook demand. Take the total 51.3 milllion units shipment in 2011, tablet PC will cannibalize 7-10 million units notebooks demand. Despite the new Intel CPU launch in 1Q11, 2011 overall notebooks growth will be around 15.4 percent YoY and 222.7 million units in scale, which is lower than historical 20 percent YoY growth pattern.
Given the impact from Chinese New Year and new platform launch, 1H11 and 2H11 notebook shipment pattern will be shaped as 45:55 percent, which is totally different from the historical 40:60 percent pattern.
Source: DRAMeXchange.2011 netbook growth rate declines 2 percent YoY with threat from tablet
Netbooks reached their peak 28.4 million units with 172 percent YoY in 2009, since the newly launch in 2007. In 2010, especially for European and American market, netbook face the cannibalization from tablet that most OEM and ODM are conservative toward the netbook in 2H10. DRAMeXchange estimated that in 2010, netbooks will grow 17.2 percent YoY to 33.3 million units.
We expect that the surging tablet PC will limit the growth in netbook in 2011. However, netbook still has some demand for basic functionality such as office computing. DRAMeXchange expects 2011 netbook shipment will be 32.6 million units with 2 percent YoY decline.
Source: DRAMeXchange.Desktops benefited from new demand of emerging market
Despite the continuous replacement effect from notebooks, DRAMeXchange still think that the desktop growth rate will be stable at the consideration of new demand from emerging areas such as China and other emerging countries.
Such as Latin American market, most new PC demand is from the family and notebook is less attractive. The China PC market share is expected to surpass over 20 percent in 2010 since growth in European and American market is beyond expectation. DRAMeXchange expect desktop market will grow 6.1 percent YoY to 127 million units in 2011 from 120 million units in 2010.
Source: DRAMeXchangeIf Tablet PC is merged into notebook demand, annual growth rate is 31.6 percent
Tablet PC are cannibalizing the notebook market. If taking into consideration, 2010 notebook increases 30.3 percent YoY to 208.2 million units.
The 2011 notebook (included netbook,tablet PC) increased 31.6 percent YoY to 274 million units. Total notebook markets indicate the huge growth rate. The 2010 notebook shipment will be 208.2 million units and will grow 31.6 percent to 274 million units in 2011, if the tablet is included.
Source: DRAMeXchange.
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