Semicon special: Global and Indian scenarios, design trends

I've been blogging on semicon for some time now, and it is also going to be a year since the CIOL Semicon site was launched.

This special edition looks at the global semiconductor scenario -- how is the industry dealing with the 'deep trauma' it finds itself in, along with certain forecasts. Will the recession bring the industry down, or is there light at the end of the tunnel? We also look at some predictions made in the past and evaluate where the semiconductor industry stands today.

In the Indian context, the special analyzes India's growing might in the global semiconductor market, the emergence of India as an embedded superstar, the growing strength of the Indian design services segment, and a quick look at how planners need to take the semicon policy forward.

The special also addresses some leading design trends, such as the use of graphical system design for embedded control systems, trends in video compression, and why designers and developers need to go parallel. It also touches on some recent developments in 22nm.

All articles can be found on the CIOL Semicon site. Some of the posts are available on my blog as well. Enjoy!

Global Semiconductor Market Scenario

1. Top 10 global semicon predictions: where are we today
While the chip industry is equipped to take on the challenges ahead, do watch out for weaker DRAM and NAND markets.

2. Semicon likely to grow 12pc in 2008
If there will be an economic recession, the chip industry (but not all firms) is in the best shape possible to weather the ensuing storm.

3. Semi trends 2008: Fab spend lower, ASPs stabilizing
The call on global fab spend was for a 10 percent reduction, and this is now getting to be closer to 20 percent.

4. Global semicon to grow 4.9pc
These forecasts are based on April's WSTS sales numbers, as per the Cowan LRA (Linear Regression Analysis) model.

Indian Semiconductor Market Scenario

1. India's growing might in global semicon
India is fast becoming the world's destination, and increasingly the source too, for semiconductors.

2. Indian design services to touch $10.96bn by 2010
Total design services market in India is said to have grown at 21 percent year on year.

3. Indian semicon industry creating its niche
The Indian semiconductor industry has established itself as a leading provider for design services outsourcing.

4. Indian semicon needs concrete planning
India should produce a good plan to take semiconductors forward and be realistic about what can be done.

5. India the emerging embedded superstar
We are witnessing a strong trend from companies slowly moving from 'Service Only' model to 'Service + Product/IP' model.

6. Emerging trends in embedded market
High-performance, low-power embedded systems are moving to platforms based on multicore and mobile processors with low thermals.

7. IBM-Telelogic to extend embedded offerings
Acquisition of Telelogic fortifies Rational development at India Software Lab, opens door for company to gain foothold in embedded.

8. EDA healthy and growing in India
Consumption of EDA technologies is growing in regions outside of the US and Europe.

Semiconductor Design Trends

1. Graphical system design for embedded control systems
Graphical system design (GSD) is a revolutionary approach to embedded design that blends intuitive graphical programming and flexible commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) hardware.

2. Video compression: trends in encoding/decoding chips
High-quality video transmission is creating challenges for designers, and this article seeks to address these challenges.

3. Be parallel, or perish!
Parallelism offers new doors, and creativity is required to open these new doors, says Intel.

4. Fascinating developments in 22nm!
These augur well for the global semiconductor industry, even though the field could get much narrower.

Global semi to grow 4.9 percent: Cowan

This is a new addition to the continuing coverage on the global semiconductor industry forecasts in form of a monthly update to the Cowan LRA Model's global semiconductor sales forecast numbers.

According to Mike Cowan, an independent semiconductor analyst and developer of the Cowan LRA model, the "momentum indicator" dropped to 1.8 percent from March's number of 6.1 percent; but still remains in positive territory.

Consequently, the updated forecast numbers increased very slightly from March's results with the 2008's sales forecast estimate increasing to $268.249 billion (from last month's estimate of $267.318; up a modest 0.35 percent) thereby yielding a year-on-year (YoY) sales growth forecast estimate of 4.9 percent (up from last month's sales growth forecast expectation of 4.6 percent).

This newly updated sales growth forecast estimate of 4.9 percent as per the Cowan LRA model compares quite favorably with both Gartner's most recent forecast update of 4.6 percent and the WSTS's Spring 2008 forecast update of 4.7 percent.

Cowan adds: "It should be highlighted that these Cowan LRA Model's forecast numbers are a "snapshot in time" (for a given month) and will "change" as each new month's results are made available and digested by the dynamic Cowan LRA Model as the year evolves."

Cowan LRA model
A new semiconductor sales forecasting model has been developed to facilitate the determination of future global sales of the semiconductor industry. The Cowan LRA (Linear Regression Analysis) Model, which forecasts global semiconductor sales, is a mathematically based model that features statistical analysis of the past 24 years of historical, monthly global semiconductor sales numbers that are collected and published by the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) organization.

Mike Cowan is a 45-year semiconductor industry veteran. He has a 36-year history at IBM's Microelectronics Division in East Fishkill, N.Y., where he was involved in many facets of semiconductor development and manufacturing engineering, including both technical and management responsibilities.

Over his last 10 years at IBM, as a senior technical staff member, he has been involved in strategy development and competitive analysis focused on the semiconductor industry, and has developed a number of top-down and bottom-up models to predict the dynamics of the semiconductor industry.

After retiring from IBM in 2002 he became an independent semiconductor industry analyst providing his monthly forecasts to The Semiconductor Reporter Web site from 2002-2006, and presently to Future Horizons.

May I also take this opportunity to welcome Mike Cowan on my blog.