USA: USA: Presenting Converge's Market Intelligence Report, August 2009.
The DRAM market continues to show signs of improvement. We are currently tracking increased demand from module manufacturers for 128x8 DDR2 chips, both in PC667 and PC800 speeds. Pricing has increased significantly over the last five months.
For example, the average price for a 128x8 DDR2 chip has risen from $0.85 in March to roughly $1.50 in the second week of August. There are mixed opinions on why the market has become so tight for these modules.
Many end users believe that DRAM manufacturers are squeezing the supply from the market in order to increase prices.
Some are claiming that their demand volume has remained steady throughout the past five months and there should be no reason for the market to heat up, while other end users are experiencing improving business conditions as we head into the second half of the year. All of this could also be leading to an increase in demand.
Either way, the market is steadily improving for both DDR2 and DDR3. The key to sustaining these improvements is to stay the course and avoid drastic spikes and dips in spot market activity. Any sign of inventory "dumping" will erase some if not all price increases in the memory market this year.
Showing posts with label DRAM vendors. Show all posts
Showing posts with label DRAM vendors. Show all posts
Thursday, August 13, 2009
Sunday, July 26, 2009
2H’July mainstream MLC NAND Flash contract price declines around 4pc
TAIPEI, TAIWAN: 2H’July mainstream MLC NAND Flash contract price slightly declined around 4 percent since customer base and demand varied during the period and resulted in the mild downward pricing trend, says DRAMeXchange.
Source: DRAMeXchange
July is traditionally regarded as the slow season for memory card and UFD. Since demand for inventory replenishment seems to be weak and cost competitiveness proved due to technology migration, vendors tend to stimulate the purchase willingness with favorable price.
However, some vendors receive the order request for peak season from system customers in 3Q09 that they prefer to remain the stable price so that they can keep certain of profit on hand. That is, contract price for 2H’July remains the flat, according to DRAMeXchange.
Despite slow season pattern for NAND Flash main application product will continue till mid-August and NAND Flash vendors receive orders from electronic system customers.
The mix effect will indicate the mild pricing fluctuation that different product mix, variable supply status and business development will resulted in different pricing strategy.
DRAMeXchange believes that the mix of ups and downs will continue till mid-August that short-term NAND Flash contract price will demonstrate a less volatile pricing trend.
Source: DRAMeXchange
Source: DRAMeXchangeJuly is traditionally regarded as the slow season for memory card and UFD. Since demand for inventory replenishment seems to be weak and cost competitiveness proved due to technology migration, vendors tend to stimulate the purchase willingness with favorable price.
However, some vendors receive the order request for peak season from system customers in 3Q09 that they prefer to remain the stable price so that they can keep certain of profit on hand. That is, contract price for 2H’July remains the flat, according to DRAMeXchange.
Despite slow season pattern for NAND Flash main application product will continue till mid-August and NAND Flash vendors receive orders from electronic system customers.
The mix effect will indicate the mild pricing fluctuation that different product mix, variable supply status and business development will resulted in different pricing strategy.
DRAMeXchange believes that the mix of ups and downs will continue till mid-August that short-term NAND Flash contract price will demonstrate a less volatile pricing trend.
Source: DRAMeXchange
Thursday, July 23, 2009
2H’July contract price for DDR3 rose 9pc to $24
TAIPEI, TAIWAN: According to DRAMeXchange, resulting from the 5 percent upward pricing in term 1H’July, DDR3 contract price for 2H’July hikes again due to tight DDR3 supply and aggressiveness in inventory replenishment for PC-OEMs.
Most DDR3 2GB price deal are negotiated at $24, while Samsung’s pricing was sustained at $22/2GB in 1H’July and was adjusted to $24/2GB in 2H’July.
“Low” price of DDR3 2GB rose 9 percent to $24, and the “Average” price just merely increased to $24.5 from $24, but not much deal was done for "High" price.
The main reason for upward pricing trend is triggered by higher premium on extra DDR3 requirement for PC-OEMs. It is indicated that PC-OEMs pay 7 percent premium on the extra volumes. 2H’July DDR2 contract “Low” price and “Average” price rose around 5 percent since DRAM vendors applied “bundle-sales” strategy to promote DDR2 along with DDR3 despite of weak demand in DDR2 market.
Unlike the boosting upward trend in contract market, DDR3 1333Mhz 1Gb chip rose 9 percent to $1.7 from $1.56 at 1H’July in the spot market given the rare DDR3 supply in the spot market. DDR2 still remains the main transaction target and DDR3 exposure is less than 1 percent among the product mix of module houses.
According to DRAMeXchange's analysts, the boosting demand for DDR3 is triggered by aggressive DDR3 migration of Acer. It is estimated that around 70 percent of notebook shipments in Q4 will be equipped with DDR3 modules.
Acer looks forward to take advantage of DDR3 migration to achieve higher market share in terms of PC shipments. HP and Dell are forced to raise the DDR3 exposure in 2H’09 in advance to protect their leadership even though they plan to adopt DDR3 in mainstream NB market next year. It resulted in the huge demand for DDR3 in 2H’09.
However, DRAM vendors are cautious toward the DDR3 migration since they don’t want to record bigger loss again with anxious migration plans. Therefore, DDR3 contract price rose 14 percent in July due to tight DDR3 supply.
It is indicated that around 30 percent ~70 percent PC models in Q4’09 will be equipped with DDR3, while DRAM vendors are required to speed up the migration process by PC-OEMs.
Korean vendors such as Samsung and Hynix demonstrate their competitiveness in terms of migration speed and production capability. Not only with penetration in 50nm technology, Samsung and Hynix will adopt 40nm technology to produce DDR3 in 2H’10.
DDR3 will be amounted 35 percent ~40 percent in terms of wafer-in production in Q4’09. On the other hand, Elpida is much aggressive toward DDR3 compared with Korean vendors. DDR3 wafer-in production portion will be estimated as 50 percent of total DDR2 production along with DDR3 in Q4’09.
To enhance the competitiveness during the periods without 50nm technology, Elpida is developing 60nm technology to produce DDR3 chip that production volume will raise 20 percent under 60nm technology without immersion facility. As for Taiwanese vendors, Nanya/Inotera currently apply Qimonda’s 70nm technology to produce DDR3 while Micron’s 68nm technology and 50nm technology will be mainly adopted to produce DDR3 followed by the migration plans in 2H’09.
That is, DDR3 portion in Fab 3A will be obtained to 90% if Micron’s technology is applied in 90 percent of total production in Fab 3A. Rexchip ramp up DDR3 production in small volume while PSC will decide to follow depends on the spot market status.
Global DDR3 Migration Trend (Percentage of commodity DRAM production)
Source: DRAMeXchange, July 2009
Most DDR3 2GB price deal are negotiated at $24, while Samsung’s pricing was sustained at $22/2GB in 1H’July and was adjusted to $24/2GB in 2H’July.
“Low” price of DDR3 2GB rose 9 percent to $24, and the “Average” price just merely increased to $24.5 from $24, but not much deal was done for "High" price.
The main reason for upward pricing trend is triggered by higher premium on extra DDR3 requirement for PC-OEMs. It is indicated that PC-OEMs pay 7 percent premium on the extra volumes. 2H’July DDR2 contract “Low” price and “Average” price rose around 5 percent since DRAM vendors applied “bundle-sales” strategy to promote DDR2 along with DDR3 despite of weak demand in DDR2 market.
Unlike the boosting upward trend in contract market, DDR3 1333Mhz 1Gb chip rose 9 percent to $1.7 from $1.56 at 1H’July in the spot market given the rare DDR3 supply in the spot market. DDR2 still remains the main transaction target and DDR3 exposure is less than 1 percent among the product mix of module houses.
According to DRAMeXchange's analysts, the boosting demand for DDR3 is triggered by aggressive DDR3 migration of Acer. It is estimated that around 70 percent of notebook shipments in Q4 will be equipped with DDR3 modules.
Acer looks forward to take advantage of DDR3 migration to achieve higher market share in terms of PC shipments. HP and Dell are forced to raise the DDR3 exposure in 2H’09 in advance to protect their leadership even though they plan to adopt DDR3 in mainstream NB market next year. It resulted in the huge demand for DDR3 in 2H’09.
However, DRAM vendors are cautious toward the DDR3 migration since they don’t want to record bigger loss again with anxious migration plans. Therefore, DDR3 contract price rose 14 percent in July due to tight DDR3 supply.
It is indicated that around 30 percent ~70 percent PC models in Q4’09 will be equipped with DDR3, while DRAM vendors are required to speed up the migration process by PC-OEMs.
Korean vendors such as Samsung and Hynix demonstrate their competitiveness in terms of migration speed and production capability. Not only with penetration in 50nm technology, Samsung and Hynix will adopt 40nm technology to produce DDR3 in 2H’10.
DDR3 will be amounted 35 percent ~40 percent in terms of wafer-in production in Q4’09. On the other hand, Elpida is much aggressive toward DDR3 compared with Korean vendors. DDR3 wafer-in production portion will be estimated as 50 percent of total DDR2 production along with DDR3 in Q4’09.
To enhance the competitiveness during the periods without 50nm technology, Elpida is developing 60nm technology to produce DDR3 chip that production volume will raise 20 percent under 60nm technology without immersion facility. As for Taiwanese vendors, Nanya/Inotera currently apply Qimonda’s 70nm technology to produce DDR3 while Micron’s 68nm technology and 50nm technology will be mainly adopted to produce DDR3 followed by the migration plans in 2H’09.
That is, DDR3 portion in Fab 3A will be obtained to 90% if Micron’s technology is applied in 90 percent of total production in Fab 3A. Rexchip ramp up DDR3 production in small volume while PSC will decide to follow depends on the spot market status.
Global DDR3 Migration Trend (Percentage of commodity DRAM production)
Source: DRAMeXchange, July 2009
Thursday, July 2, 2009
DDR3 July contract price likely to rise 5~10 percent
TAIPEI, TAIWAN: The June contract price did not fluctuate since some contract deals between PC OEMs and DRAM vendors are conducted either in monthly basis or quarterly basis. DRAMeXchange believes that DDR3 contract price in July will increase 5 percent~10 percent due to the aggressive CULV promotion and new contract deal negotiation in July.
As for spot market, given the stable range between $1.5~$1.7 of DDR3 1Gb chip with 50 percent premium compared to DDR2 1Gb chip, DDR2 1Gb chip price has dropped to $1 from $1.34 in May, says DRAMeXchange.
From the supply side perspective, DRAM vendors adopted the “Capacity Cut” strategy through the difficult period in 2H’08 given the frozen demand and global financial crisis. Qimonda was filed bankruptcy early this year, while ProMOS maintained the minimum operation.
With the improved economy, DRAM vendors gradually enhance production. DDR3 wafer-in portion is expected to be up to 30 percent in Q4’09 from 15 percent in Q1’09, while Korean and Japanese vendors demonstrate the great ambition on the DDR3 migration.
Nanya and Inotera are the only capable Taiwanese vendors that can dedicate to DDR3 production. However, the DDR3 portion of Nanya and Inotera is below 10 percent, while the remaining 90 percent is occupied by Korean and Japanese vendors (see Fig. 1).
DRAM vendors were suffering from the big financial trough in the downturn economy crisis that this circumstance resulted in the obvious CAPEX gap especially in DDR3 migration. This situation is way different from what DRAM vendors devoted CAPEX in 70nm and 65nm technology. As for Korean vendors, they do aggressively conduct not only DDR3 migration, but 50nm technology adoption as well.
It is expected that at least 70 percent DDR3 chips will be produced with 50m technology. 65nm remains current mainstream technology for Japanese vendors that they do contend competitiveness if the total chip amount can be increased via “Die Shrink” process.
Although Qimonda’s 70nm technology is still adopted to produce DDR3, Micron’s 68nm and 50nm technology will be mainly applied in 2H’09. This technology migration will give Nanya and Inotera some credit to compete with Korean/Japanese vendors. Meanwhile, Powerchip and Rexchip are both qualified for mess production, according to DRAMeXchange (see Fig. 2).
As for spot market, given the stable range between $1.5~$1.7 of DDR3 1Gb chip with 50 percent premium compared to DDR2 1Gb chip, DDR2 1Gb chip price has dropped to $1 from $1.34 in May, says DRAMeXchange.
From the supply side perspective, DRAM vendors adopted the “Capacity Cut” strategy through the difficult period in 2H’08 given the frozen demand and global financial crisis. Qimonda was filed bankruptcy early this year, while ProMOS maintained the minimum operation.
With the improved economy, DRAM vendors gradually enhance production. DDR3 wafer-in portion is expected to be up to 30 percent in Q4’09 from 15 percent in Q1’09, while Korean and Japanese vendors demonstrate the great ambition on the DDR3 migration.
Nanya and Inotera are the only capable Taiwanese vendors that can dedicate to DDR3 production. However, the DDR3 portion of Nanya and Inotera is below 10 percent, while the remaining 90 percent is occupied by Korean and Japanese vendors (see Fig. 1).
DRAM vendors were suffering from the big financial trough in the downturn economy crisis that this circumstance resulted in the obvious CAPEX gap especially in DDR3 migration. This situation is way different from what DRAM vendors devoted CAPEX in 70nm and 65nm technology. As for Korean vendors, they do aggressively conduct not only DDR3 migration, but 50nm technology adoption as well.
It is expected that at least 70 percent DDR3 chips will be produced with 50m technology. 65nm remains current mainstream technology for Japanese vendors that they do contend competitiveness if the total chip amount can be increased via “Die Shrink” process.
Although Qimonda’s 70nm technology is still adopted to produce DDR3, Micron’s 68nm and 50nm technology will be mainly applied in 2H’09. This technology migration will give Nanya and Inotera some credit to compete with Korean/Japanese vendors. Meanwhile, Powerchip and Rexchip are both qualified for mess production, according to DRAMeXchange (see Fig. 2).
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