Source: DRAMeXchange, Taiwan. NAND Flash price were previously expected to decline after the restock peak. The peak explained by the year-end sales around mid-November. However, the power outage occured at Toshiba fabs in early December provided incentive to suspect limited output in January. This expectation spurred customers to re-stock inventory starting from mid-December for sales occur in Chinese New Year holiday. Thus, NAND Flash rebounded in December.
Overall, 4Q10 NAND Flash industry revenue decreased about 4.2 percent QOQ to $4.907 billion with an approximately 17 percent decline in ASP (average selling price) QOQ. 2010 NAND Flash revenue from branded vendors increased about 58.7 percent YoY to $19.17 billion.
From the 4Q10 branded NAND Flash vendors market share, Samsung remained its leader with 37.5 percent market share and $1.84 billion in revenue while Toshiba came in second place with 35.5 percent market share and $1.743 billion in revenue. Micron ranked third with 10.7 percent market share and $526 million in revenue followed by Hynix with $510 million in revenue. Intel came in the fifth place with $288 million in revenue.
In terms of 2010 total revenue, Samsung maintained its leadership with 39.2 percent market share, followed by Toshiba with 34.7 percent. Micron, Hynix and Intel, respectively, captured 11.2 percent, 9.1 percent, and 5.9 percent market share.
4Q10 operation analysis of branded NAND flash makers
Samsung Electronics
In 4Q10, Samsung increased sales portion in system products such as Smartphone and tablet PC to avoid weaker memory card & UFD demand in channel market. Thus, 4Q10 quarterly bit shipment grew about 15 percent QOQ while ASP declined about 15 percent QOQ.
In addition, the Korean Won appreciation also affected 4Q10 NAND revenue to go down by about 9.3 percent QOQ to $1.84 billion with 37.5 percent market share. Samsung expected 1Q11 supply bit growth to grow about 30 percent with the steady yet strong demand in embedded NAND Flash used in system product. However, it expected the ASP to decline about 20 percent QOQ, impacted by the slow-season.
Samsung will continue to expand the 27nm node portion in order to improve cost and value-added in NAND Flash embedded products (Movi-NAND, MCP, and SSD).
Toshiba Corp.
Despite of the power outage, the shipment scheduled in December was not affected. Japanese Yen appreciation and ASP decline affected sales. Nevertheless, steady OEM orders from Smartphone, Tablet and memory card sustained a steady growing bit shipment.
The 4Q10 NAND revenue went down slightly about 4.3 percent QOQ to $1.743 billion with 35.5 percent market share. Overall, Toshiba has migrated into 32nm node production and will continue to push 24nm migration for better cost structure. The new 300mm Fab5, a joint venture with SanDisk, will join production in 3Q11. Toshiba will continue to improve the value-added in NAND Flash embedded products such as MCP, eMMC and SSD to manage the surging demand of emerging mobile devices.
Micron Technology/Intel
With aggressive pricing, ASP declined about 20 percent QOQ. However, the increased OEM orders of system product and Lexar distribution channels spurred a 24 percent bit shipment growth QOQ. NAND Flash revenue increased slightly by 0.8 percent QOQ to $526 million with 10.7 percent of market share.
Micron will also take part in embedded memory business, for mobile devices such as Smartphone and tablet PC. The 300mm Singapore fab will join production in 1Q11 and expected to reach a monthly capacity of 60K 300mm wafers in the end of 2011. Current output is mostly under 25nm. Micron expects supply bit growth to be 15 percent QOQ with 10 percent decrease in ASP QOQ.
On the other hand, Intel’s NAND Flash sales grew about 12.5 percent QOQ to $288 million in 4Q10 with 5.9 percent market share, benefited from steady orders and a mild price decline. Intel will launch 25nm 64Gb TLC products in 1Q11 to improve cost structure and in response to the 1H11 slow season in memory card and UFD markets. Furthermore, Intel will also introduce 25nm SSD in 1Q11.
Hynix Semiconductor
Hynix increased system product customer ratio in response to the sluggish 4Q10 memory card and UFD sales in the retail market. Thus, 4Q10 shipment bit growth surged about 32 percent QOQ with 12 percent decrease in ASP QOQ. Influenced by the Korean Won appreciation, 4Q10 revenue is increased slightly by 2.9 percent to $510 million with 10.4 percent market share in 4Q10. And, 75 percent of 32nm migration was achieved in 4Q10.
Hynix will try to strengthen competitive advantages through adjusting up system product customer ratio and 26nm output portion in 1Q11. Hynix expects 1Q11 supply bit growth to be about 15 percent QOQ. With the demand of emerging Smartphone and tablet PC, Hynix anticipates a steady NAND Flash ASP in 1Q11.
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