Global semicon industry update: Forget 2010, what about 2011?

UK: According to Malcolm Penn, CEO and chairman, Future Horizons, April set the ball rolling for a blockbuster second quarter making what will now be five successive quarters of growth. Our 3 percent Q2 growth forecast looks increasingly timid, with 6-8 percent more likely.

Virtually all forecasters are now pitching 2010’s growth at the 30 percent level, so there is little left to argue about other than guessing the exact final number. Whether the ‘final’ number is 28 or 38 percent really makes no odds; it is the underlying trend that counts, something we forecast correctly over 18 months ago.

The real issue now is “What about 2011?” We are clearly now in a boom and the next phase is bust, but when, how deep and how fast will it collapse?

We are currently reappraising this and our 2011 forecast, with the analyses to be presented at our forthcoming IFS2011 Mid-Term International Forecast Seminar in London on 20th July.

In the meanwhile, the industry is now in the full flood of a classic market boom. Order books are full, customers are building stocks, double ordering is rife, capacity is strained, lead times increasing and deliveries are stretched. Yet, memory aside, all other segment ASPs are still falling!

This is chip industry nonsense at its worst. Time to increase semiconductor prices everywhere. It is absolute business, economic and industry madness to keep decreasing prices in a tight supply market.